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Monday November 18, 2013 - 11:21:49 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Euro-Zone Sept Trade Surplus is the largest for any September since EMU launch in 1999 EU Market Update: Euro-Zone Sept Trade Surplus is the largest for any September since EMU launch in 1999
Mon, 18 Nov 2013 5:11 AM EST

- Chinese markets surge over 2.7% to details of last week's Third Plenum as part of sweeping reforms; Home prices in major cities hit fresh record highs (led by Shanghai)
- Spain Sept Bad Loan Ratio m/m: 12.7% v 12.1% prior (fresh record level)
- Various ECB members stress the environment is improving and worst of crisis appears to be behind
- Euro-Zone Sept Trade Surplus is the largest for any September since EMU launch in 1999

***Economic Data***
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Nov 15th (CHF): 318.4B v 317.8B prior
- (EU) ECB 0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 4M prior; 43.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 46.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (HK) Hong Kong Oct Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Current Account (Seasonally adj): 13.7B v 17.4B prior; Current Account (unadj): 14.0B v 12.0B prior

- (ES) Spain Sept Bad Loan Ratio m/m: 12.7% v 12.1% prior (fresh record level)
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 BER Consumer Confidence: -7 v -8 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Trade Balance (Seasonally Adj): 14.3B v 13.0Be; Trade Balance (unadj): 13.1B v 14.5Be

Fixed Income:
-None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.1%
, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,704, DAX +0.4% at 9,203, CAC-40 +0.40% at 4,308, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 9,741, FTSE MIB +1.3% at 18,919, SMI +0.30% at 8,351, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,794]

- Market Focal Points: European equity markets open lower following 6 weeks of gains for the Stoxx600, DAX trades at record high, Shanghai Composite rises 2.9%, Airbus rises on orders at Dubai Airshow

By Sector
- Industrial
s [Petrofac PFC.UK -15% (cautious outlook); EADS EAD.FR +2.5% (orders at Dubai Airshow), Saipem SPM.IT +4% (asset sale speculation)]
- Financials [Aberdeen Asset Management ADN.UK +13% (acquisition, FY results)]
- Healthcare [Sonova SOON.CH +7% (raised outlook), Medica MDCA.FR +2% (proposed merger); Innate Pharma IPH.FR -7% (capital raise), Korian KORI.FR -5% (propoed merger)]
- Energy [Neste Oil NES1V.FI -9% (US EPA requirements related to advanced biofuels); Subsea7 SUBC.NO +1% (Q3 profits above ests)]
- Technology [Aveva Group AVV.UK -8.5% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE +5.5% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology -0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.7%, Basic Materials -0.4%,Financials -0.3%, Energy -0.2%; Utilities +2.9%, Telecom +0.1%, Consumer Cyclical flat, Industrials flat]

- ECB's Nowotny
(Austria): Reiterates that economic situation is improving in region as tensions ease but recovery not as strong as expected
- ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg): Confident about the future, worst of EMU crisis is behind. He noted that the upcoming ECB stress tests to have a 3-year horizon but no decision yet on treatment of govt debt
- Italy PM Letta: Actions take by his govt in 2013 have set the conditions for growth to return in 2014. Govt will present debt-cutting privatization plan this week. He forecasted 2014 GDP at 1.4% and deficit at 2.5%. He noted that Youth unemployment was the most urgent issue to address
- BoE systemic risk survey: Fears of a high-impact event in the UK financial system had fallen
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: Global banks responding well to Basel III; new capital rules need to be consistent between countries. Average of group 1 banks already meet 2019 rules
- Spain Econ Min de Guindos commented that doubts over the country's banking sector and autonomous regions have eased. 2014 will be the first year of recovery since 2008. Slowly improving economy and an expected fall in unemployment should allow the gov to bring income tax rates back to the level they were before last year's increase. Planning to cut income taxes in 2015 and would consider significant changes to its corporate taxes as the economy gradually recovered. Not planning to change value-added taxes
- German Dep Fin Min offical Steffen stated that he wanted the ECB to take over banks in a clear way and added that German supervisory mechanisms should be considered
- Poland Central Bank (NBP) Gov Belka: Poland is in a different situation than the Euro area; sees no danger of deflation in country
- Japan Vice Fin Min Fukukawa: Reiterates should avoid issuing new bonds to fund stimulus
- China PBoC official Jiawei: China can gradually raise the deposit rate ceiling
- Iran nuclear agreement said to halt Arak and freeze uranium and impose an unprecedented inspection regime to ensure commitments were kept (**Note: negotiators meet Iran officials in Geneva starting on Wed, Nov 20th through Fri, Nov 22nd)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was slightly softer in a quest start to the week in FX markets. The greenback was well contained within recent ranges. The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.35 handle. Some analysts' noted recent dovish comments from ECB would likely continue this week and limit EUR upside.
The USD/JPY pair dipped back below the parity level and retracing from recent 2-month highs

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Coene (Belgium): low inflation level forced ECB to act, but the preemptive rate cut should allow us to avoid more rate cuts in the future - L'Echo interview
- (EU) EU Parliament said to have proposed 150B bank bailout fund - British press
- (FR) France Budget Min Cazeneuve: Weak economic growth causing a 5.5B shortfall in tax revenue - BFM
-(DE) Bundesbank board member Nagel: No asset price bubble is building for the time being; Investors are aware low interest rates will not last - German press
-(DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Germany will not face sanctions due to its trade surplus, approving direct bank recapitalizations would require changes to German law
- (GR) Greece govt to continue talks with troika this week ahead of Thurs 2014 budget submittal to Parliament
- (IT) Berlusconi lieutenant breaks away from his center-right party, weakening Berlusconi 's position and likely strengthening the coalition govt of PM Letta - press; Angelino Alfano, announced that he will split Berlusconi to form his own faction that counts 30 Senators and 27 members of the lower house
-(CN) Moody's: China reform direction is positive for its sovereign rating
- (JP) Independent panel overhauling Japan public pension fund is expected to recommend changes that allow the funds to be invested more aggressively; report could be released as soon as Nov 20th - Japan press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU-Japan Summit Nov. 19-20 in Tokyo
- (EU) EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels
- (CA) Canadian Deputy Finance Minister Horgan Speaks at C.D. Howe
- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell up to 4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2016, 2018, 2023 Bonds
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.1%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.4%e v 4.1% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Q3 Current Account Balance: -$3.5Be v -$1.6B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON700M in Bonds
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces sizes in upcoming Bill/bond auctions
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Int'l Securities Transactions: No est v C$2.1B prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell combined 6.6B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Sept Trade Balance: No est v -976.6M prior
- 09:00 (US) Sept Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$2.9B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: $20.0Be v -$8.9B prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (US) Nov NAHB Housing Market Index: 55e v 55 prior
- 11:00 (CA) Bank of Canada's Macklem speaks in Montreal
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.27B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $58B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Dudley to speak in Queens, New York
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on the Economic Outlook in Philadelphia
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 Unemployment Rate: 7.2%e v 7.2% prior
- 14:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.0-4.0B in Notes
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Trade Balance: $250.0Me v $241.5M prior; Total Imports CIF: $4.7Be v $5.0B prior
- 15:45 (US) Fed's Dudley to Tour Steinway Factory in Long Island City
- 19:30 (AU) RBA Policy Meeting Minutes from Nov
- 19:45 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Bank Regulation in Minneapolis




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