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Tuesday November 19, 2013 - 11:32:29 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: China PBoC pledges move towards market-based floating exchange rate and open its financial markets; German ZEW Expectation Survey at 5-year high

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: China PBoC pledges move towards market-based floating exchange rate and open its financial markets; German ZEW Expectation Survey at 5-year high
Tue, 19 Nov 2013 5:21 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- RBA minutes: Not closing possibility of a rate cut to support growth; forward looking indicators in past month generally improved
- China PBoC begins to move towards implementing reforms announced from its recent plenary and move towards market-based floating exchange rate
- China PBoC injects cash via 7-day repo (largest injection in 6 weeks)
- Spain Bill auction results seen as steady; yield continue to decline with 12-month hitting fresh EMU record lows
- German Nov ZEW Survey mixed but expectations hits 5-year high (54.6 v 54.0e)

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel Oct Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
- (JP) Japan Sept Final Leading Index CI: 109.2 v 109.5 prelim; Coincident Index: 108.4 v 108.2 prior
- (JP) Japan Oct Nationwide Dept Store Sales Y/Y: -0.6% v +2.8% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales Y/Y: 1.2 v 3.6% prior
- (EU) EU27 Oct New Car Registrations: 4.7 v 5.4% prior
- (EU) ECB 2M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 4M prior; 48.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 46.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Orders M/M: 1.6% v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.3% v -5.5% prior
- (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Sales M/M: 0.1% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -4.7% prior
- (NO) Norway Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%e; GDP Mainland Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e
- (GR) Greece Sept Current Account Balance: 1.0B v 1.2B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Construction Output M/M: -1.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v -1.3% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov ZEW Expectations Survey: 60.2 v 59.1 prior
- (DE) Germany Nov ZEW Current Situation Survey: 28.7 v 31.0e; Expectations Survey: 54.6 v 54.0e (5-year high)
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 BER Business Confidence: 43 v 42 prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov Final IGP-M Inflation: 0.3% v 0.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.55B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold 840M in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.494% (lowest since April 2010) v 0.672% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.3x v 5.88x prior; Max Yield: 0.500% v 0.680% prior; Tail: 0.6bps v 0.8bps prior
- Sold 3.71B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.678% (record low) v 0.961% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.85x v 2.05x prior; Max Yield: 0.713% v 0.980% prior; Tail: 3.5bps v 1.9bps prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 86.9B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.25% vs. 87.0Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.50%
, FTSE 100 +0.50% at 6,687, DAX -0.4% at 9,188, CAC-40 -0.9% at 4,281, IBEX-35 -0.90% at 9,699, FTSE MIB -0.70% at 18,970, SMI -0.60% at 8,303, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,785 ]

Market Focal Points: European equity markets open lower following negative leads from the US and Asia, Mixed Germany ZEW data, Later today Fed speakers (Bernanke, Evans)

By Sector
- Industrial
s [DSM DSM.NL +3% (acquisition)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Paddy Power PAP.UK -8% (profit warning), Inter Parfums ITP.FR -5.5% (issued 2014 guidance); easyJet EZJ.UK +6% (FY profits above ests, special dividend), Sixt SIX2.DE +2.5% (raised outlook)]
- Financials [KBC KBC.BE -2.5% (share placement)]
- Telecom [KPN KPN.NL +2% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [Afren AFR.UK +8% (oil find), Heritage Oil HOIL.UK +6% (Q3 production rose y/y)]
- Technology [Keller Group KLR.UK +4% (raised outlook); Smiths Group SMIN.UK -2% (cautious outlook)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Industrials -0.9%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.7%, Telecom -0.6%, Basic Materials -0.6%, Energy -0.6%, Consumer Cyclical -0.5%, Financials -0.2%; Utilities +0.1%, Technology flat]

Speakers:
- China PBoC Gov Zhou commented that it would end regular FX interventions and establish a managed float yuan currency rate as well expand the daily FX trading band from the current 1%, To gradually expand market based debt product pricing and cut the ratio of t-bonds held to maturity. To open up capital account but impose temporary curbs. To remove restrictions on Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor and Qualified Domestic investor programs
- China PBoC's Yi Gang
commented that it would gradually remove Deposit Rate ceiling. To allow more overseas investors in domestic markets
- ECB's Praet (Belgium) commented that cyclical upswing in euro area economy was confirmed but added that growth was moderate but fragile. He saw weakness in Euro-Area credit and reiterated inflation was low and expectations were solidly anchored. He reiterated that there were limits to monetary policy
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras confirmed that Greece was looking to secure deal with Troika by Dec 9th (**Note: Next Eurogroup/EcoFin meeting)
- EFSF Board approved 3.7B disbursement to Portugal
- Finland Debt Agency comments on 2014 issuance: Net borrowings seen at 7.1B
- Israel Central Bank's Flug: Sees weakness in exports continuing hurt by strong ILS currency (shekel)
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) again adjusted the floating Ruble corridor upward by 5 kopecks to 32.55-39.55 in dollar/euro basket on Nov 18th (**Note: 13th adjustment since Aug)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Chinese reform and delayed Fed tapering have provided the basis for a near-term risk-positive move in currency markets. Dealesr were digesting the impact of some clarity provided by PBoC on the reforms announced at its 3rd plenary. The time frame did not seem to be too immediate after Gov Zhou noted that it would widen trading band in 'orderly manner'
- EUR/USD continued to be contained within 1.3450-1.3550 range but some dealers noted that European data had the potential to surprise to the downside. Other dealers noted some large options around the 1.35 area that was set to expire today and contain volatility
- RBA has also reiterated its desire for a weaker AUD but the PBoC comments aided most Far East currencies. AUD/USD above 0.9420 ahead of the NY morning

Political/In the Papers:
- EU banks will not have to deal with the new complex definitions for bad loans in their first data submissions to the ECB in 2014
- (US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Fundamentals in the US looking increasingly good, "I am getting more hopeful"; Q4 GDP likely to move to 2% due to inventory factors; Additional cooling in inflation appears unlikely.
- (US) Fed' Plosser (hawk, non-voter): Time to phase out QE, FOMC missed an excellent opportunity to begin the taper in October; Fed should set fixed dollar amount for the entire QE3 program.
-(CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) spokesman Shen: Fast yuan rise squeezing exporters' profits.
- (CN) Guangzhou raises down payment for 2nd homes to 70% - Chinese press
-(JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Stimulus is likely to be around 5T; Personally ordered cabinet ministers to compile stimulus measures by early Dec

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU-Japan Summit Nov. 19-20 in Tokyo
- (EU) EU General Affairs Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels
- 05:30 (EU) EBA's Farkas in Frankurt
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 3.75B in 2.25% 2023 Gilts
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Months Bills

- 06:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU holds Coalition talks with SPD
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Oct PPI M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.6% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.9%e v 5.8% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -3.4% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Fixed Rate 2015 and 2020 Bonds
- 06:15 (DE) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) in Frankfurt
- 06:15 (AT) ECB's Nowotny in Vienna
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Tax Collections (BRL): 98.0Be v 84.2B prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 2.0B in 6-month bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit tender; Expected to drain 184.0B
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Key rates unchanged; Expected to leave Benchmark Repurchase Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 7.75%; Expected to leave Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (DE) German Bundesbank's Dombret in Frankfurt
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct Average Gross Wages M/M: 1.5%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 3.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct Employment M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.3% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Nov CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 53.8 prior
- 08:30 (US) Q3 Employment Cost Index: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:45 (US) Treasury Sec Lew speaks on US Economic Prospects
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 10:00 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) in Frankfurt
- 10:00 (EU) Eurosystem Financial statement
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase U$2.75-3.50N in Notes
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell 2-year, 3-year, 5 Year, 7-year Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 14:15 (US) Fed's Evans speaks to Illinois Bankers in Chicago
- 15:00 (USA) President Obama at WSJ meeting
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut the Overnight Rate Target by 25bps to 4.50%
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:45 (CA) Bank of Canada's Murray speak at Mount Allison
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct Trade Balance: 854.2Be v -932.1B prior; Adj Trade Balance: -875.5Be v -1.1T prior
- 19:00 (US) Fed' Chairman Bernanke speaks to Economists Club in Washington
- 19:30 (AU) RBA Dep Gov Debelle speaks at Forum

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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