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Wednesday November 20, 2013 - 03:49:08 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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Morning briefing -

Mixed picture in Equities. People not seling, but not buying aggressively either. Cautiously optimistic.

The Dow (15967.03, -8.99, -0.06%) has closed marginally lower, not managing to stay above 16000 for the second day. There are chances of profit-taking while the Resistance at 16100 still holds.

Asia-Pac is quiet and mixed, ranging from -0.91% (Australia) to +0.21% (Hong Kong). The Shanghai (2193, +0.03%) and Nikkei (15102, -29, -0.19%) are flattish. The Shanghai continues to have Resistance at 2200-25 while the Nikkei could be gearing up for a rise towards 15600.

The Dax (9193, -0.35%) saw profit-taking yesterday, but may find Support near 9100 on a dip. The Nifty (6203.45) was quiet yesterday after the good rise seen on Monday and may rise further towards 6300 over the rest of the week.

Precious metals bearish. Copper finding Support. Crude could be bottoming.

Gold (1274.49) trades below the crucial 1275 level. Near term move is likely to remain bearish towards 1250 while below 1275. Note, though, that bearishnesss in Gold is not being reflected in the Euro (1.3550) which is actually trading higher. Silver (20.384) continues to fall, targeting support near 18.5 from where it could bounce back towards 21. The rise in the Gold-Silver ratio (62.44) suggests further near-term weakness for Silver.

Copper (3.17) rose after registering a low of 3.124 as Bernanke commented on interest rates to remain low. With buying coming in at lower levels, and Support available at 3.10, it may trade a little higher today.

Brent (107.35) has come off sharply from the 50-day MA. It appears a little mixed in the near term, but may still target 110 in the coming weeks. Nymex WTI (93.69) has been bouncing back from just above the 200-Week MA for the last 3-weeks. A rise past 95.50, if seen, would confirm that a bottom is in place for Crude.

Euro (1.3555) is in a resistance region of 1.3550-65. While this holds we may see a fall towards 1.3420-25. A rise past 1.36 (if seen) would be very bullish. Note that the Euro has seen a rise of 2.1% from the low near 1.33 on 7th Nov. The mirror image is seen in the Dollar Index (80.56) which is still trying to bounce. But it could be vulnerable while below 81 and it may target supports near 80.35 unless a sharp bounce is seen soon. Markets await the FOMC minutes today.

Dollar Yen (99.983) has dipped from a high of 100.2. If it moves up steadily we may see 101 levels in the coming days as there is potential for 105 thereafter. EURJPY (135.67) continues to look very bullish targeting 140 in the long term.

Pound (1.6126) has bounced sharply from 1.6055. Near term resistance coming up near 1.6200.
Aussie (0.942) has bounced from 13-day MA and is now trading between the 13-day and the 21-day MA. It may remain ranged in these levels for sometime now.

Dollar Rupee (62.36) saw a low of 61.77 yesterday and has opened near 62.24 today. Watch Resistance at 62.40-50. A rise past that will be bullish, else we can see a test of 62.00 again.

Bernanke assured that Fed Fund rates will continue to remain low for a long time even after the Taper starts. There is criticism that the QE has helped the fat cats get fatter and has not benefited the Average Joe, but there's precious little that can be done about that. The world over, Monetary Policy (and more specifically QE) is being pushed to fill in the vacuum created by non-existent political leadership that can tackle structural problems.

Keep an eye on the US 10Yr (2.71%) which has moved up from 2.67% on Monday instead of falling. A rise past 2.75% (if seen) could be bad for "risky assets" globally.

BOE Minutes are to be released today and then we have the BOJ Meeting tomorrow. The UK 10Yr (2.72%) and the Japan 10Yr (0.61%) both trade a little lower. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.10%) has moved up from 2.03% yesterday. A further increase can help Dollar-Yen (99.99) move higher.

The Indian 10Yr (9.02%) could be headed up towards 9.25%.



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