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Wednesday November 20, 2013 - 06:18:59 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan posts its 3rd largest trade deficit as energy import costs mount; Bernanke maintaining dovish stance - Source TradeTheNews.com

Japan trade deficit spikes to its highest level on record for October and also the 3rd highest monthly deficit overall; Exports are up 18.6%, but imports outpaced outbound shipments with a 26% increase - 12th consecutive rise and the highest rate since June 2010. Exports to US, China, and Europe are up over 20%, however Japan remains hamstrung by high energy costs. Crude oil imports were up 68%, with weak JPY and continued reliance on foreign oil exacerbated by continued shutdown of its nuclear industry. - China conference board leading index at a 3-month low; Resident economist noted growth slowed due to weak real estate activity, only partly offset by an improved outlook for manufacturing production and exports. Recall overnight, PBoC announced it would end FX interventions, establishing a managed float rate and expanding a daily trading band. - Out of Australia, Westpac leading index improved slightly; Bank economist said the recent above-trend growth in the Index is pointing to a much better outcome over the next few quarters, with forecasts accounting for an unusually significant drag from the downturn in mining investment. Notably, BHP CEO expressed confidence that the early indications from the Chinese government's recent economic policy summit were positive for Australia and its mining industry, suggesting demand for natural resources may prove to be stronger than currently believed. - Outgoing Fed chief Bernanke struck a familiar dovish tone, reiterating that interest rates may remain near zero for considerable time after bond buys end, and possibly well after unemployment declines to less than 6.5%. Bernanke also continued to imply that the Fed remains extremely data-dependent without a clear outlook for the start of the taper, noting the FOMC would only start to slow bond buys if labor market and inflation align with its projections. ***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA OCT CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 0.6% V 1.1% PRIOR (3-month low) >- (JP) JAPAN OCT MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -1.09T V -854BE (record 16th consecutive deficit); ADJUSTED MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -1.07T V -875BE - (JP) JAPAN SEPT ALL INDUSTRY ACTIVITY INDEX M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: +0.1% V -0.1% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT DEWR SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: -0.1% V -0.3% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 PPI INPUT: 2.2% V 0.6% PRIOR (2 1/2 year high); PPI OUTPUT: 2.4% V 1.0% PRIOR (5-year high) - (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q3 SHORT-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT: $111.5B V $119.6B PRIOR - (US) NORTH AMERICA OCT SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.05 V 0.97 PRIOR (above parity for the first time in 3 months; first sequential increase in 4 months) - (CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK CUTS OVERNIGHT RATE TARGET BY 25BPS TO 4.50%, AS EXPECTED ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) China MoF auctions 10-yr bonds, Avg yield 4.7121% (highest yield in 9 years) - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 250B in 1-3 yr JGBs, 350B in 3-5yr JGBs, and 200B JGB with maturity over 10-yr - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.5 tonnes to 863.0 tonnes (lowest since Feb 2009) - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +510K v +1Me (lowest build in 8 weeks) - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1305 v 6.1317 prior setting (record high setting for Yuan) - USD saw some brief weakness against its major counterparts following a fairly dovish set of comments from Bernanke but has since reversed course in the afternoon session. USD/JPY fell 30pips below 100 and EUR/USD spiked up 40pips toward $1.3580 before retreating to $1.3550. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are being sold more heavily in the afternoon, with the former down 50pips from the highs below $0.94 and the latter off by 60pips from the highs around $0.8330. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China H1 industrial capacity utilization rate 78% (lowest since late 2009) - (CN) PBoC deputy gov Hu: To increase 2-way floating flexibility of yuan rate and also phase out investment caps on foreign/domestic investors; China should provide appropriate liquidity into economy - financial press - (CN) Fitch: China new reform could have positive impact on local govt credit ratings - (JP) Japan Reform Panel to recommend GPIF should invest in inflation-linked JGBs - financial press - (JP) Japan Finance Ministry panel (FSC) to recommend end to farm protection at Nov end; vt panel will propose an end to protection measures for farmers as part of plans to increase competitiveness of Japan's agriculture and entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement - Kyodo News - (AU) RBA Dep Gov Debelle: Regulation aims to ensure risk remains priced into market- CIFR Forum speech - (AU) Australia Treasury official Gruen: mining investment is slowed by high AUD - (KR) Bank of Korea Gov Kim: Inflation lower than expected - (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Rates may remain near zero for considerable time after bond buys end, and possibly well after unemployment declines to less than 6.5% - National Economists Club speech - (CA) BoC Dep Gov Murray: Market forces pushing prices and exchange rates in right direction - (EU) Moody's: Sees 2014 Euro Area GDP at 0.5-1.5%; 2013 GDP at -1% to flat ***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.8%, Kospi -0.5%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Dec S&P500 -0.2% at 1,788, Dec gold +0.1% at $1,274, Dec crude oil +0.3% at $93.62/brl US markets: - LZB: Reports Q2 $0.32 v $0.26e, R$366.4M v $350Me; Raises quarterly dividend by 50% to $0.06/shr from $0.04/shr; +8.4% afterhours - YHOO: Announces share repurchase authorisation by $5B (14% of market cap); proposes to offer $1.0B (2.7% of market cap) aggregate principal amount of its convertible senior notes due 2018; +2.8% afterhours - NHI: To acquire 25 Independent Living Facilities from Affiliate of Holiday Retirement for $491M; -1.7% afterhours Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Oriental Press Group 18.HK -7.0% (issues profit warning); Kathmandu Holdings Ltd KMD.AU -2.9% (Q1 outlook in AGM) - Consumer staples: Wanjia Group Holdings Ltd 401.HK +4.2% (signs MOU on marketing channels) - Industrials: Suzuki Motor Corp 7269.JP +0.7% (new vehicles plans); Virgin Australia VAH.AU -2.6% (comments on capital raising) - Materials: Anhui Jingcheng Copper Share Co Ltd 002171.CN +1.3%, Xinyi Glass Holding Co Ltd 868.HK +1.6% (plans for private banking); Drillsearch Energy Ltd DLS.AU +4.0% (operations update); - Financials: Shenyin Wanguo 218.HK +4.4% (confirms plan for merger); Tibet Urban Development and Investment Co Ltd 600773.CN +7.3% (investment plans) - Technology: Digital China 861.HK -8.0% (Q2 results); AU Optronics Corp 2409.TW +1.8% (secures loan); Sony Corp 6758.JP -0.9% (comments on PS4); Sharp Corp 6753.JP +6.8% (partners with Hewlett-Packard) - Telecom: China Mobile 941.HK -0.9% (Oct metrics) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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