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Wednesday November 20, 2013 - 16:34:42 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Choppy Trading Ahead of FOMC Minutes US Market Update: Choppy Trading Ahead of FOMC Minutes
Wed, 20 Nov 2013 11:18 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 15th: -2.3% v -1.8% prior
- (RU) Russia Oct Real Retail Sales M/M: 2.8% v 2.2%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.2%e
- (RU) Russia Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.5% v 5.4%e
- (RU) Russia Oct Real Disposable Income: 4.9% v 2.0%e
- (RU) Russia Oct Real Wages Y/Y: 4.1% v 6.7%e
- (RU) Russia Oct Investment In Productive Capacity: -1.9% v -1.0%e
- (US) Oct Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.4% v 0.3%e
- (US) Oct CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (US) Oct CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (US) Oct CPI NSA: 233.546 v 223.600e; CPI Core Index: 234.877 v 234.929e
- (CA) Canada Sept Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (BE) Belgium Nov Consumer Confidence Index: -6 v -6 prior
- (MX) Mexico Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.0% v -2.5%e
- (US) Oct Existing Home Sales: 5.12M v 5.14Me
- (US) Sept Business Inventories: 0.6% v 0.3%e
- (US) DOE Crude: 380K v +1.0Me; Gasoline: -345K v 0Me; Distillate: -4.8M v -0.5Me

- Markets have been buffeted by a volatile news flow this morning, with data, earnings and central bank speak making for an exciting ride. Focus now turns to the FOMC minutes for the October meeting, with analysts eager to dissect the committees thinking on the prospects for tapering QE. As of writing, the DJIA is flat, the S&P500 is up 0.20% and the Nasdaq is up 0.26%.

- In a speech to the National Economists Club last night, Fed Chairman Bernanke once again reiterated his implicit forward guidance that rates will remain for a long time after QE bond buys end, adding that rates may remain low until well after unemployment declines below the 6.5% threshold. This morning, Fed dove Bullard commented that a strong November jobs reports could increase the odds of a December taper.

- EUR/USD gapped a big figure, from 1.3545 to 1.3455, after reports emerged mid-morning suggesting the ECB was considering a negative deposit rate. This comes just a day after ECB Vice President Constancio said that the ECB had not discussed how it would implement more easing, if it were needed. Numerous ECB officials have indicated over recent months that the bank considered negative rates. ECB President Draghi has said at his last several press conferences that the bank is "technically prepared" for a negative deposit rate.

- The October CPI data was just as tepid as expected. Note that the m/m figure was negative, while the slight decline in the y/y figure, to 1.0%, puts the measure well below the Fed's 2.0% target. One analyst highlighted the fact that excluding the deflationary period of 2008-09, this is the lowest y/y CPI reading since 1965.

- The both the headline and core October retail sales data were a bit stronger than expected despite the government shutdown. However growth in sales remains very muted, while the ex-autos figures declined from September. Note that in comments at an industry conference mid-morning, executives from Coach said that the consumer situation is volatile and fragile, with mall traffic seeing a sharp decline in November.

- Shares of retailer JC Penny are up 9% in the early going despite another quarter of steep losses. The firm's Q3 comps declined another 4.8% in the period, although the company said Q4 comps would be better and that October comps were positive.

- Deere plowed under consensus expectations in its fourth quarter earnings report, with a solid 17% gain in earnings y/y. However the firm's initial FY14 guidance was negative, with net income seen down more than 3% and North America farm machinery sales down significantly. Shares of DE are up 2.4%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (NO) Norway PM Solberg speaks at CDU Foundation
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-Year Bonds
- 12:10 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in Chicago
- 13:30 (UK) BOE's Weale in London
- 14:00 (US) Fed Minutes from Oct 29-30 FOMC Meeting
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 Unemployment Rate: 7.2%e v 7.2% prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Discount Store Sales Y/Y: No est v -5.3% prior; Department Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Oct ANZ Job Advertisements: No est v 1.1% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 6.9% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -3.9% prior
- 16:15 (CA) Bank of Canada's Poloz, Macklem speak at Senate Committee
- 20:45 (CN) China Nov HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI: 50.8e v 50.9 prior
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Statement ; Expected to leave both Interest Rate Target and Monetary Base Target unchanged at 0.1% and 270T respectively




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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales

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