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Monday November 25, 2013 - 03:36:01 GMT
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KSHITIJ.COM - Morning Briefing!

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Most of Asia-Pac is comfortably in the green. The Nikkei (15584, +1.32%) is especially strong, propelled by a weak Yen (101.68). We continue to target 16200. However, the Shanghai (2193, -0.15%) continues to hesitate in breaking the crucial 2200-25 Resistance region. We just have to wait and watch on that.

The Dow (16064.77, +54.78, +0.34%) had closed just below the crucial 16100 Resistance on Friday. But, it is looking bullish on the Candles and could rise towards 16500 on a break above 16100. Expect strong profit-taking at 16500, though.

The Nifty (5995.45) had closed just below 6000 on Friday. Failure to move up past 6050 today on positive global cues would be very bearish. Be careful.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1241.70, -0.23%) has dipped a bit and remains below 1250. Near term support coming up near 1233.5 and further near 1225 which if holds may help it to bounce back towards 1260-1280. Silver (19.77, -0.68%) has fallen sharply and is in an overall downtrend. We are bearish on our earlier target of 18.5.

Copper (3.2125) has fallen after registering a high of 3.263 . We may expect a move in the 3.15-3.22 region for now.

Brent (108.64, -2.17%) is trading near the 50-day Ma at 108.56 after coming off from a strong trend resistance at 111.4. This fall is attributed to the easing of tension with Iran over its nuclear efforts. Crucial support region coming up in the 107.5-107.8 levels. Nymex WTI (94, -0.95%) has dipped considerably. We may see a movement in the 93-96 region. If the resistance at 96 holds it may fall back towards 93.

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3545) is struggling a bit after reaching the resistance zone of 1.3550-80. Staying above 1.3510, it can try once again to overcome this zone above which the way to 1.3650-85 would be clear.

Dollar Index (80.77) continues to hover around the decisive level of 80.50. Holding above this, the Dollar bulls would try to reverse the downtrend but a failure could take it to 79.75 and lower. Immediate resistance is seen at 80.85-80.95 and support is in the zone of 80.50-65.

Dollar Yen (101.65) keeps rallying after the coming out of a 6 month range mentioned before. We keep watching for our target levels of 104-105 and more. EURJPY (137.70) has been pushed higher by the simultaneous weakness of Yen and the strength of Euro against other currencies. Keep an eye on the huge resistance zone of 138.35-75, which should be a tough nut to crack right now.

Pound (1.6233) is challenging the 2013 high of 1.6260 and a move above this level would be the breakout signal. A weekly closing above 1.6260-1.63 could be the signal for a multi-month rally.

Aussie (0.9167) continues its fall in line with our expectation. It can still reach 0.91 levels if it fails to get above 0.92.

Dollar Rupee (62.87) may open near 62.50-60 today continuing the consolidation. We will watch the price action near 62.40-50 if any buying comes there. That will give us further clue about its direction as at present the picture is muddy. Upside looks capped at 63.10-25 for now.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.76%) had slipped slightly on Friday, but may be in a near-term uptrend targeting 2.87% while above 2.70%. Perhaps the inevitability of a Taper is fully factored into the market. It is the timing that is now being debated. Although the 30-Yr (3.84%) has also come off a bit from 3.88% earlier, it too should be targeting 4.0% while above 3.75%.

The German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.02%) is 1bp higher than the -1.03% mentioned in the last report. But, it is in a steep decline while below -1.0%. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.14%) has increased by 1bp. The overall trend continues to look positive for a rise past 2.20% while above 2.10-2.05%.

All in all, the Dollar continues to have the Yield Advantage in the currency markets.

The Indian 10Yr (9.10%) continues to rise towards our target of 9.25%. We see no chances of this coming down easily unless the structural changes needed in the economy do not take place. And none of that is happening anytime very soon.

 

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