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Monday November 25, 2013 - 10:25:14 GMT
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Iran deal hits crude. Thanksgiving break in U.S. after much data.
|Iran deal hits crude. Thanksgiving break in U.S. after much data.|
25 November 2013 10:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: North America: US- Pending Home Sales. 2-yr Auction|
| EURUSD 1.3515
|| U.S. 2.76% +1bp
|| North America: Mixed|
| EURJPY 137.40
|| Bund 1.73% -1bp
|| DE: DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6195
|| GILT 2.79% 0bp
|| GB: FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 101.67
|| JGB 0.43% +1bp
|| Asia Close Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Pending Homes, 2-yr Auction
- The weekend temporary (6 mos) nuclear agreement with Iran has seen oil prices and gold fall in anticipation of additional oil exports into the global economy as sanctions are eased. Politically, many are unhappy with the deal on enforcement concerns. Increased tensions between China and Japan (and the U.S.) have seen the JPY weaken.
- The week ahead will sees the Thursday Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S. That means U.S. markets effectively will be closed from mid-day Wednesday through Friday (early close). Monday is a relatively quiet session for data releases.
- Recall Fed tapering remains on the front burner as a market factor. Keep an eye on the U.S. 10-yr yield as a key barometer of market sentiment. I doubt the Fed will scale back on asset purchases before its March meeting for three reasons.: first, early January could see another budget stand-off between the Republicans and Democrats. Then (March?) there could be another debt ceiling debate Second, Chairman Bernanke's term runs out on January 31. Third we feel that since the tapering process will take a period of time, it makes sense that Janet Yellen should be at the helm when the process is started.
- Sentiment around Japan and the yen has become shaky. The pivotal USDJPY level is the psychological 100 line. Stops above the 101 line have been triggered. "Abenomics" have been a nice slogan, but a policy failure.
- U.S. data will be front-loaded this week and feature a number of key housing and sentiment surveys. The latter portion of the week sees the usual monthend slew of Japanese reports.For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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