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Tuesday November 26, 2013 - 11:10:42 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euribor rates continue to rise

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euribor rates continue to rise
Tue, 26 Nov 2013 5:21 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- BOJ released the minutes showed three members opposed to baseline outlook
- South Korea Nov Consumer Confidence at 33 month high (107 vs. 106 prior)
- PBoC Gov Zhou reiterated China central bank will preserve "prudent" monetary policy but also expressed some further support on widening the yuan trading band
- Spain Bill auction results steady. Sold indicated amount at mixed yields and lower bid-to-cover
- Front-loaded economic calendar tomorrow ahead of US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 1.7%e; Y/Y:8.0% v 9.3%e
- (JP) Japan Nov Small Business Confidence: 51.1 v 50.8 prior
- (NO) Norway Q3 Consumer Confidence: 17.6 v 20.4 prior
- (FI) Finland Oct Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.6% prior
- (FI) Finland Oct Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: +0.6% v -1.2% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Sept Leading Indicator: 101.1 v 101.4 prior
- (ES) Spain Sept Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: -31.9% v -38.1% prior; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: -30.9% v -41.7% prior
- (EU) ECB 185M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 181M prior; 38.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 44.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Oct PPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.7% v -1.1% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Oct Trade Balance (HKD): B v -39.5Be; Exports Y/Y: % v 6.2%e; Imports Y/Y: % v 5.0%e
- (VN) Vietnam Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.9% prior
- (VN) Vietnam Nov Trade Balance: +$50M v -$100Me; Export YTD Y/Y: % v 15.2% prior; Import YTD Y/Y: % v 15.2% prior
- (PL) Poland Oct Unemployment Rate: 13.0% v 13.0%e
- (PL) Poland Oct Retail Sales M/M: 3.6% v 4.8%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 4.2%e
- (IT) Italy Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 98.3 v 97.5e
- (ZA) South Africa Q3 GDP Q/Q Annualized: 0.7% v 1.0%e ; GDP Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.0%e
- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold INR10B vs. INR10B indicated in 1.44% Inflation-linked 2023 bond; Yield: 3.6301%
- (EU) EFSF opened book to sell 15-year benchmark bond via syndicate; guidance seen +29bps over mid-swaps with Order Book over 2.0B
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.4B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 0.0% 2016 DSL bond; Avg Yield: 0.275% v 0.435% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.51B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 3-Month and 9-Month Bills
- Sold 1.63B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.405% v 0.294% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.06x v 5.39x prior; Max Yield: 0.425% v 0.300% prior Tail: 2.0bps v 0.6bps prior
- Sold 2.87B in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.662% v 0.682% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.92x v 2.11x prior; Max Yield: 0.685% v 0.703% prior; Tail: 2.3bps v 2.1bps prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 3.0B vs. 2.5-3.0B indicated range in Jun 2015 CTZ; Avg Yield: 1.163% (lowest since May)v 1.392% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.68x v 1.78x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 97.2B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.25% vs. 87.0Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.2%
, FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,662, DAX flat at 9,296, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,285, IBEX-35 flat at 9,686, FTSE MIB -0.70% at 18,655, SMI -0.6% at 8,258, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,801]

- Market Focal Points: European equity markets open mixed in line with Monday's US trading session, FTSE MIB lags on declines in the banking sector, DAX hovers below record high, Energy sector rebounds, Remy Cointreau lower on outlook, Bayer bids for Norway-based Algeta

By Sector
- Energy
[Repsol REP.ES +3.5% (speculation related to compensation agreement for YPF), Solarworld SWV.DE +7% (acquisition)]
- Financials [Banca Monte Paschi BMPS.IT -10% (capital raise concerns)]
- Consumer Discretionary [De La Rue DLAR.UK +7% (H1 profits rose y/y), Mitchells & Butlers MAB.UK (FY profits above ests), Britvic BVIC.UK +4.5% (FY profits rose y/y, raised dividend); Remy Cointreau RCO.FR -9% (cautious outlook), Hugo Boss BOS.DE -3% (cautious outlook)]
- Industrials [Faiveley LEY.FR -6.5% (cautious outlook); Safran SAF.FR +1% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Algeta ALGETA.NO +30% (approach from Bayer), Genmab GEN.DK +4.5% (raised outlook); Glaxo GSK.UK -1% (FDA update on AVANDIA)]
- Basic Resources/Materials [Glencore Xstrata GLEN.UK -1.5%(broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors
[Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.5%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Utilities -0.3%, Telecom -0.2%; Energy +0.8%,Technology +0.3%, Industrial +0.2%, Financials +0.1%, Basic Materials +0.1%]

Speakers:
- ECB's Coeure
(France) was interviewed on CNBC. He saw no reason to treat any asset as risk-free and ECB member Weidmann had a point on new sovereign bond treatment. He stated that worsening disinflation was unlikely if economic growth weakened. There was only so much ECB can achieve within its mandate and could not be held entirely responsible for Euro Zone growth. He ended the interview noting that negative Deposit Rate was possible
- EU President Van Rompuy stated at conference on EU-China ties in Brussels that China had contributed to helping sustain the Euro during the recent financial crisis and that China confirmed that it was prepared to purchase European bonds
- Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov. Olsen: Oil fund protects from fluctuations in oil prices
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Ekholm: Not cutting rates when inflation is low could damage central bank credibility
- UK Chancellor Osborne: Won't interfere with Financial Policy Committee (FPC) decisions on leverage ratio
- BoE Carney letter to Exchequer: Minimum leverage ratio key to overall capital framework saw FPC completing review within 12 months and would publish some views on Thursday Nov 28th
- Romania Deputy Fin Min Jiru: Govt planned to extend Medium-Term Note (MTN) program by three years and increase its value by 7.0B
- Israel Central Bank New budget steps would complicate ability to meet 2015 Budget Deficit target of 2.5% to GDP
- BoJ's Kiuchi: More mindful of downside risks to BoJ's price target, reiterates not appropriate to target 2% inflation in 2 years
- Iran Foreign Min Zarif: Any dispute can be solved with political will

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Price action seemed to slow down ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The economic calendar will be front-loaded on Wednesday as a result. Some dealers looked for a pick up in USD demand as funds close books ahead of the year-end in coming weeks.
- Dealer citing option barrier at 102 as the rational in the retracement in price action for USD/JPY and also coincided with a minor correction in the Nikkei225 Indiex from 6-month highs.

Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) ECB's Noyer (France): Fragmentation in euro area is decreasing; Recovery still weak and fragile - financial press
-(EU) ECB's Weidmann: Govt bonds should be risk-weighted; Banking exposure to sovereign debt should be limited
- (AU) RBA Dep Gov Lowe: Expects in time to see the AUD lower; does not rule out intervention, threshold for intervention fairly high
- (CN) PBoC Gov Zhou Xiaochuan: Domestic inflation stable; Must continue prudent monetary policy; To widen yuan trading band in orderly fashion; Euro is important part of Chinese fx reserve management; French govt debt is good portion of China's investments.
- (CN) PBoC's Xu Nuojin: 8% GDP growth not a problem in coming years; 8% export growth target is difficult to reach
- (JP) Japan and US may deploy unmanned plane to East China Sea - Nikkei News

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PT) Portugal Parliament debates 2014 budget
- (IT) Italy Senate confidence vote on 2014 budget (evening hours in Rome)
- (EU) EU's Barroso
- (ES) Spain Oct YTD Budget Balance: No est v -36.7B prior
- 05:30 (IT) Italy PM Letta to meet with Russia President Putin in Trieste(Nov 25-26th)
- 06:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU holds Coalition Talks With SPD
- 06:00 (RU) IMF Russian Mission Rep Joshi
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP; to drains 184.0B
- 07:30 (LX) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg)
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Financial Stability Report
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 20bps to 3.20%
- 08:30 (US) Sept./Oct. Housing Starts Released Jointly Due to Shutdown
- 08:30 (US) Oct Building Permits: 930Ke v K prior (**Note: Housing Starts delayed until Dec 18th)
- 08:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- 08:45 (UK) BOE's Bulley at conference in London
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (US) Sept S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 0.90%e v 0.93% prior; Y/Y: 13.0%e v 12.82% prior; Home Price Index: 164.94e v 164.53 prior
- 09:00 (US) Q3 S&P/ CaseShiller HPI Y/Y: No est v 10.08% prior; HPI: No est v 146.32 prior
- 09:00 (US) Sept House Price Index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Q/Q: 2.0%e v 2.1% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: No est v 206.9B prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 72.4e v 71.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 3e v 1 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:15 (EU) EU's Almunia in Parliament
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018 and 2022 Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell 2-year, 3-year, 5-year and 7-year bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $45B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:15 (EU) EU Commissioner Rehn in Brussels
- 13:00 (DE) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) in Berlin
- 13:00 Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 14:00 (PK) Pakistan's Army Chief Kayani's Term Ends
- 14:00 (US) Fed Discount Rate Minutes
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Oct Trade Balance: -$350Me v -$199Me
- 18:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends VKU Local Council Companies Event in Berlin
- 20:30 (JP) BOJ Board Member Shirai speech & Press Conference

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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