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Wednesday November 27, 2013 - 11:14:09 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German Consumer Confidence at 7-year high

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German Consumer Confidence at 7-year high
Wed, 27 Nov 2013 5:20 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- ECB said to be considering a new LTRO linked to conditions (similar to BOE's FLS)
- IMF said to be pushing for plans to impose upfront losses on bondholders in any future Euro Zone bailouts; plan faces resistance from EU and US
-German CDU/CSU and SPD reach agreement to form a grand coalition; deal must still be approved in mid-Dec vote by SPD members
-Italy govt wins Senate confidence vote on 2014 budget; Senate vote later today on whether to expel former PM Berlusconi from politics
- German consumer confidence hits highest level since Nov 2007
- The second reading of UK Q3 comes in unrevised (QoQ: 0.8% vs. 0.8%e)
- Italian borrowing costs again fall at 6-month Bill auction towards EMU record lows as it sells targeted amount (Yield: 0.539% vs. 0.629% prior)

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Aug UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.28 v 1.56 prior
- (FI) Finland Consumer Confidence Index: 6.4 v 5.0e; Business Confidence: -9 v -9 prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BoT) unexpectedly cuts its Benchmark Interest by 25bps to 2.25% citing weaker Q3 GDP from recent political unrest
- (FR) France Nov Consumer Confidence: 84 v 85e
- (HU) Hungary Oct Unemployment Rate: 9.8% v 9.9%e
- (ES) Spain Oct Adjusted Retail Sales WDA Y/Y: -0.5% v +2.2% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y:-0.6 % v +2.2% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Oct Leading Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.5% prior; Coincident Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior
- (EU) ECB 158M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 185M prior; 44.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 38.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Oct Trade Balance (SEK): 4.4BB v 6.0Be
- (SE) Sweden Oct Household Lending Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.9%e
- (DE) Germany Dec GfK Consumer Confidence: 7.4v 7.1e; highest since Nov 2007
- (NO) Norway Sept AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.5%e
- (IS) Iceland Nov CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6% prior
- (UK) Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Q3 Preliminary Private Consumption Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Government Spending Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.3%e; Exports Q/Q: -2.4% v -1.0%e; Imports Q/Q: 0.4% v 1.3%e
- (UK) Sept Index of Services M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; 3M/3M: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Q3 Preliminary Total Business Investment Q/Q: 1.4% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: -6.3% v -8.5% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (RU) Russia sold RUB13.7B vs. RUB20B in Aug 2023 OFZ bonds; yield: 7.75% vs. guidance of 7.70-7.75%
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B in 2023 bonds; Yield: 2.2476% v 2.5205% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 6-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. prior (10th straight week of no allotment)
- 05:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 7.0B vs. 7.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.539% v 0.629% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.77x v 1.82x
- (EU) ECB allotted 5.9B in 3-month LTRO vs. 6.0Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%,
FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6649, DAX +0.2% at 9308, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4284, IBEX-35 +0.2% at 9736, FTSE MIB +1% at18,961, SMI flat at 8236, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1804

- Market Focal Points: European equity markets opened mostly higher following mixed trading in Asia, Share placements continue (Vossloh, Veolia Environmental, Nordex), Athens Stock Exchange outperforms as Greece's classification as an emerging market takes effect, Italy FTSE MIB supported by banking sector, DAX remains near record high as German grand coalition agreement is reached

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Punch Taverns PUB.UK +8.5% (reaffirmed outlook and disposal plans), Colruyt COLR.BE +5% (H1 results above ests), Royal Mail RMG.UK +5% (H1 profits +148% y/y); Accor AC.FR -3% (revised business strategy)]
- Consumer Staples [Compass Group CPG.UK +2% (FY profits above ests, announced buyback)]
- Industrials [Aker Solutions AKSO.NO +13% (Aker ASA raised stake), HeidelbergCement +1% (broker commentary); Vossloh VOS.DE -3.5% (share placement), Veolia Environmental VIE.FR -1.5% (share placement), Solvay SOLB.BE -1.5% (Cut FY16 EBITDA target)]
- Energy [Nordex NDX1.DE -6.5% (share placement)]
- Telecom [Vivendi VIV.FR +2% (demerger plan)]
- Financials [Banco Popolare BP.IT +5.5% (merger agreement)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Telecom +0.9%, Utilities +0.7%, Industrials +0.3%, Energy +0.3%, Technology +0.2%, Financials +0.1%, Basic Materials +0.1%, Consumer Cyclical flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

Speakers:
- BoE's McCafferty
reiterates the view that interest rates would not rise anytime soon in the near future. He reiterated view that 7% unemployment was the threshold to reevaluate the economy
- ECB said to have confirmed Ireland is not eligible for OMT citing the country's decision to exit bailout with precautionary credit line. This meant that Ireland didn't meet conditions for the ECB to buy Irish debt
- ECB said to be weighing new 'funding for lending' LTRO with conditions that are aimed at increasing lending to companies. According to the report, the new LTRO could be for 9-12 months vs the prior LTROs which were 36 months. The article reiterated that the ECB was mulling negative deposit rates to punish lenders for storing money with the central bank; also considering purchasing bonds of euro-area countries.
- German CDU's Fuchs: New election likely if SPD rejects coalition (**Note: SPD vote due in mid-Dec)
- Bank of Spain (BOS) Monthly Report noted that its economic recovery was seen being sustained in Q4 and noted a significant improvement in labor market.
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Ekholm (dove): Data since last policy meeting has been mixed. She would not exaggerate importance of upcoming GDP data and would place importance on upcoming CPI data. She saw fundamental reasons for larger interest rate cut but added that a Repo Rate cut more than 25bps would be a surprise at the Dec meeting. Interest rate cut would have limited effect on private debt
- Thailand Central Bank cited weaker than expected Q3 GDP as the catalyst for the surprise rate cut in today's session. It noted that political unrest to hurt confidence and slow domestic demand. It would keep monetary policy easy as exports showed no clear sign of recovery. The central bank again cut its 2013 and 2014 GDP growth outlook for the second within a month. 2013 GDP growth forecast cut to 3.0% from 3.7% while 2014 GDP was cut to 4,0% from 4.2%
- India Planning Panel Deputy Ahluwalia: Reiterates view that FY14 GDP seen at 5.0% (H2 growth to be better than H1
) with fiscal deficit not exceeding 4.8%

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The Euro maintained a firm tone despite recent dovish ECB rhetoric as market appeared to focus on the German grand coalition and reports of a potential 'funding for lending' scheme out of the ECB. Overall liquidity seemed to be thinning out ahead of Thursday US Thanksgiving holiday and month-end.
- The EUR/USD continued to probe the 1.36 handle and eventually found the momentum to move above the level.
- The second reading of UK Q3 GDP saw no revisions. The data did confirm that the UK was in an expansionary phase and this was viewed as GBP positive. The GBP/USD pair was at 1-month highs above 1.6275
- The Yen remained at multi-year lows against numerous pairs. Both GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY crosses hit fresh 4-year lows at 138.51 and 165.60 respectively. The CHF/JPY cross tested highest level since Aug 1990

Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) Reportedly ECB sources suggest that there is no consensus for more action at December ECB meeting, but all options remain on the table - financial press
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen (Germany): Germany needs a stable euro and a stable Europe; strategies for fighting the crisis are working; Narrowing yield spreads are in Germany's best interest.
- (EU) ECB's Liikanen: Though rates are very close to zero, room to act has not been exhausted
- (EU) Issuance of covered bonds in Europe has hit a more than 10-yr low
-(DE) Chancellor Merkel's CDU and SPD said to have reached German coalition accord - US financial press; Details related to the agreement are expected to be presented later today in a news conference.
- (GR) Athens Exchange (ATHEX) will have its first day of trading today as an "emerging market" after being downgraded by MSCI - Greek press
- (IT) Italy PM Letta survives confidence vote on the budget in the Senate - financial press
- (PT) Portugal Parliament approves 2014 budget (final vote)
-(JP) BOJ board member Shirai: More cautious on outlook of GDP and CPI than median forecast from BOJ; Uncertain price would reach 2% target during projected time frame
- Bank of Korea (BOK): Rising KRW currency might harm domestic exporters profits

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italian Senate votes on Berlusconi expulsion
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at event in Berlin
- (CY) Cyprus Fin Min Georgiades with EU's Rehn
- 05:30 (IT) Italy PM Letta to meet with Russia President Putin in Trieste(Nov 25-26th)
- 05:30 (UK) Business Sec Cable questioned by UK Parliament over Royal Mail Sale
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 2% 2023 bunds
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to buy back Bills
- 06:00 (EU) EU Commission proposal on Trade Secret protection
- 06:00 (UK) Nov CBI Industrial Reported Sale: +10e v +2 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Property Prices M/M: No est v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB15B in May 2019 OFZ bonds; yield guidance between 7.24-7.29%
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 22nd: No est v -2.3% prior
- 08:00 (GR) OECD economic survey of Greece,
- 08:30 (CY) Cyprus President with EU's Barros in Brussels
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 323K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.85Me v 2.88M prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct Durable Goods Orders: -2.0%e v 3.8% prior (revised from 3.7%); Durables Ex Transportation: +0.5%e v -0.2% prior
(revised from -0.1%); Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft: +0.9%e v -1.3% prior (revised from -1.1%); Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense Ex Aircraft: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Durables Goods Orders Ex-Defense: No est v +3.2%
- 08:30 (US) Oct Chicago Fed National Activity Index: 0.10e v 0.14 prior
- 09:00 (PT) ECB's Constancio on Portugal Financial Stability Review
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Gov Belka
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: -$769.5Me v +$659.0M prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency Flow
- 09:45 (US) Nov Chicago Purchasing Manager: 60.0e v 65.9 prior
- 09:55 (US) Nov Final University of Michigan Confidence: 73.0e v 72.0 prelim

- 10:00 (US) Oct Leading Index: 0.0%e v 0.7% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-Year Real Return Bonds
- 12:15 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho with France President Hollande in Madrid
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 13:00 (DE) ECB's Asmussen (Germany)
- 13:30 (DE) German Bundesbank member Thiele in Berlin
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Selic Target Rate by 50bps to 10.00%
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct Retail Trade M/M: -0.8%e v 1.7% prior (revised from 1.8%); Y/Y: 2.1%e v 3.1% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Oct YTD Industrial Profits Y/Y: No est v 13.5% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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