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Thursday November 28, 2013 - 03:58:48 GMT
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Morning Briefing- KSHITIJ.COM

0900 IST or 0330 GMT or 2330 EST
GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The Nikkei (15631.35, +1.18%) continues its rally towards the year high of 15900-940 levels. No sign of weakness is visible as long as it stays above 15400.

Shanghai (2223 ,+1) is trading near major resistance are in 2235-45 at current levels. A break in this resistance would signal a fresh rise towards 2330 and 2380.

The Dow (16097.33, +0.15%) is consolidating near the major resistance area of 16100-150 before going towards 16500-600. As long as it manages to stay above 15830-900, the bullish momentum remains intact. The danger of a profit-taking decline towards 15500 will be there unless there is a weekly close above 16100.

The Dax (9351.13, +0.66%) continues its rally but it might be a time to be a bit cautious. Though the index is simply accelerating, the area of 9400-9600 is full of resistances. A straight move above this could result in a blowout move but a failure to cross could result in a swift drop towards 9000-50 levels.

The Nifty (6057.10, -0.03) is still trading inside the range of Monday and next directional move would come only beyond that. Bullish hopes survive till 6030-35. The initial breakout level comes at 6125 but 6170 remains the trigger for the signal of a new high. Major supports come at 5970 and 5910. The range between 6000-6125 remains a tough range to trade with bi-directional moves.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1239.30) has fallen further from a high of 1254.62. It is trading just at the support zone on the weekly line charts. The target 1225-1200 is still possible while below 1250. Silver (19.71) has also dipped. Our earlier target of 18.5 will be confirmed on a break below theSupport near 19.5. The Gold-Silver ratio (62.88) is up may see some consolidation for some time now.

Copper (3.22) has risen a bit but it will be continued to be ranged sideways in the 3.10-3.30 region for the next few weeks.

Brent (111.43) is up and is still trading near the resistance zone of 112. Failure to rise past 112 may see a fall towards 109-108. A break above 112 and we could see Brent targeting 116. Nymex WTI (92.15) has dipped further. It is likely to be ranged in the 92-96 regions for some time now. If the long-term Support in the 92-91 region holds may see WTI bouncing back to 96-97. The rise in Brent and the corresponding fall in WTI prices has brought up the Brent-Nymex spread to 19.16.

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3563) was unable to stay above 1.6 for long as the Yield spreads again increased in favor of Dollar. It is taking a pause after hitting our support zone of 1.3555 but a break below it would open the doors to 1.3490-1.3520. Resistances remain at 1.3630-50.

Dollar Index (80.71) found support once again from the important support zone of 80.35-50 as mentioned yesterday. A move above 80.80 is required to take it to the next important resistance of 81-81.05. Support remains the same at 80.35-50.

Dollar Yen (102.04) rallied closer to the 2013 high. The strength of the bulls has been showing in the shallow retracement as mentioned yesterday. The pattern shows a day or two of pause after each day of sharp rally. So we can expect the next bout of rally towards a new year high early next week. Supports come at 101.65 and 101.15.

EURJPY (138.72) hit a new 5-year high at 138.84 displaying the weakness of Yen against all other currencies. A weekly close above 138.75 can result in a swift move towards 144. Any sign of weakness will come only below 137.

Pound (1.6302) has hit a new tear high at 1.6331. A weekly closing above 1.63 and then above 1.6381 would fully trigger multi-month rally. The initial signal for any weakness will come only below 1.6130.

Aussie (0.9113) held the support zone of 0.9060 and bounced to 0.9140 in line with our expectation but still it needs to get above 0.92 to avoid further selling pressure.

Dollar Rupee (62.50) may open gap up near 62.25-30 today but must stay above 62.30 to bring the bulls back in the market. It has resistances at 62.55 and 62.70. Support remains at 61.85-62 below 62.15.

INTEREST RATES
Yield Spreads have again increased a little bit in favour of the Dollar. The US 10Yr (2.74%) is holding/ bouncing above the crucial 2.70%. But, it needs to rise further, past 2.76-78% in order to be able to move higher past 2.80%. A rise past 2.85%, if seen, will cause a lot of market movement, setting up a target of 3.0-3.1%. But, that is a little far in the future at the moment. US data is mixed at the moment and the market may not find enough immediate reasons to take the 10Yr up past 2.80%.

The US 30Yr (3.82%) seems to be in a good uptrend, though, with good Support at 3.75% and chances of rising towards 4.0%.

The German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.03%) has fallen 1bp but the US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.13%) has risen relatively more, leading to greater weakness in the Yen.

The Indian MIFOR (6mth 9.05%) is likely to remain above 9% and could even rise towards 9.25% and higher.

DATA TODAY
CH GDP
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.52 %

EU Biz Climate
...Expected 98.10 ...Previous 97.80

DATA YESTERDAY

UK GDP
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.78 % Actual...0.78 %

US Durable Goods Order
...Expected -1.50 % ...Previous 4.80 % Actual ...-1.98 %

 

 

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