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Thursday November 28, 2013 - 11:25:19 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German State CPI readings likely put off any ECB rate action next week as deflation concerns diminish

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German State CPI readings likely put off any ECB rate action next week as deflation concerns diminish
Thu, 28 Nov 2013 5:19 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- US Thanksgiving holiday keeps trading conditions thin
- Italy Senate formally voted to expel former PM Berlusconi from Senate
- Japan Oct Retail Sales comes in below expectations; MoM registers first decline in three months (-1.0% vs. -0.8%e)
- Brazil Central Bank continues with rate hikes with 50bps increase to 10.00% (as expected) with vote unanimous
- German State CPI reading likely puts off any ECB rate action/announcement next week
- Euro Zone money Supply paints a different picture as M2 comes in below expectations (less velocity (Private sector loans -2.1% v -1.7% prior (18th month of decline )

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e

- (DE) Germany Oct ILO Employment: 41.864M v 41.842M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Oct Import Price Index M/M: -0.7% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -2.6%e
- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Saxony M/M: +0.3% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.1% prior
- (ES) Spain Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: +0.1% v +0.1%e (confirms 1st growth in 9 quarters; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.2%e
- (TR) Turkey Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 77.5 v 75.5 prior
- (DK) Denmark Oct Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 4.4% v 4.5%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.8%e
- (ES) Spain Nov Preliminary CPI Y/Y: +0.2% v +0.2%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.1%e
- (EU) ECB 53M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 158M prior; 40.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 44.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e (4th straight monthly rise); Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 6.3% v 7.3%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 5.8% v 6.5%e
- (DE) Germany Nov Unemployment Change: +10K v 0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.9%e
- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Brandenburg M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Hesse M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.9% prior
- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Bavaria M/M: +0.1% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0% prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Business Sentiment: 98.1 v 97.5e; Economic Sentiment: 83.2v 79.3 prior
- (NO) Norway Q3 Manufacturing Wage Index Q/Q: 1.1% v 1.1% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.7%e; M3 3-month average: 1.9% v 2.0%e
- (PT) Portugal Nov Consumer Confidence Index: v -42.8 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: v -1.3 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Oct PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.4%
- (UK) Nov Lloyds Business Barometer: 50 v 63 prior
- (DE) Germany Nov CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: +0.3% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.4% prior
- (ES) Spain Q3 House Price Index Y/Y: -4.5% v -7.6% prior
- (BE) Belgium Nov CPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.6% prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.6%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Business Climate Indicator: +0.18 v +0.05e; Consumer Confidence: -15.4 v -15.4e; Economic Confidence: 98.5 v 98.0e; Industrial Confidence: -3.9 v -4.4e; Services Confidence: -0.8 v -3.5e

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 2.5B v 2.0-2.5B Mar 4.5% 2024 BTPs; Avg Yield: 4.01% (lowest since April) v 4.11% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.53x v 1.53x prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.5% at 3,096,
FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,677, DAX +0.4% at 9,391 (record high), CAC-40 +0.4% at 4,308, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 9,863, FTSE MIB +1.0% at 19,111, SMI flat at 8,248, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,809

- Market Focal Points: European equity markets opened slightly above flat and moved up steadily in early trading after several European reports of in-line or higher than expected CPIs allayed fears of disinflation. Trading was muted ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Marston's PLC MARS.UK -1.5% (LFL sales +3.1%), Wolseley WOS.UK -1.0% (trading inline), Thomas Cook TCG.UK +12.8% (reports increased EBIT, raises FY15 guidance), Kingfisher KGF.UK -5.0% (reports challenging markets), AGA Rangemaster AGA.UK -0.5% (guides H2 Rev to rise y/y)]
- Industrials [Perform Group PER.UK -2.2% (earnings)]
- Healthcare [GW Pharmaceuticals GWP.UK -2.9% (Sativex approval in Switzerland), Fresenius Medical Care FME.DE -1.0% (Velphoro FDA approval)]
- Telecom [Orange ORA.FR +0.4% (Altice to acquire Orange Dominicana for about $1.4B)]
- Technology [Phoenix IT Group PNX.UK -6.9% (earnings; remains cautious long-term)]
- Financials [Eurazeo RF.FR -0.1% (sells 37% stake in Moncler), Vienna Insurance VIGR.AT -0.8% (sees losses in Italy), Commerzbank CBK.DE +1.7% (analyst upgrade)]

Speakers:
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Financial Stability Report
noted that its financial system was stable at the moment, but risks needed to be managed. Market funding created vulnerabilities and raising mortgage risk-weights to 25% was justified
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves reiterated view that Household debt posed significant risks and must target levels from rising
- Japan Fin Min Aso reiterated view that FX rates determined by markets; no comment on current levels. Basic stance on FX intervention is to be cautious; deliberate intervention would cause problems. Reiterated view that yen weakening as result of policy aimed at beating deflation
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga stated that the country wants to contribute to world economy by ending deflation
- China NDRC: China to raise gasoline prices by CNY160/ton; effective Friday, Nov 29th

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Month-end rebalancing was expected to be negative for JPY and positive for EUR, GBP and CHF in the session.
- Dealers noted that German State CPI reading likely puts off any ECB rate action/announcement next week. It was the Oct German inflation readings that likely vaulted the ECB into action earlier this month in the surprise cut in the 7-day Main Refi rate to 0.25%.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen (Germany): Germany benefits from the loose monetary policy from the ECB, low rates are due to the weak state of the economy
- (IT) Italy Cabinet approved decree to cancel year-end installment of IMU Housing Tax on primary residences. The decree also revalued the holdings Italian lenders have in the Bank of Italy, which will help them improve their capital positions.
- (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Coalition planning for 23B in additional spending is realistic will partially finance through hidden reserves
- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY19B in 14-day reverse repos; Injects CNY17B this week (2nd consecutive net injection) v injected CNY59B prior
- (CN) China considers RQFII expansion for offshore RMB market in Paris
- (JP) Japan self-defense aircraft fly within new China air zone
- (CN) China Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin: China air zone doesn't target civilian airlines

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) Vilnius Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov. Olsen speaks in Oslo
- (DE) Germany Nov CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil Oct Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): +8.0Be v -10.5B prior
- 05:30 (UK) Bank of England Publishes Financial Stability Report
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bonds
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 2.5B in 3.25% 2044 Gilts
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Retail sales M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.0% prior
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 22nd: No est v $507.7B prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Oct PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.9% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.598T prior; Outstanding Loans M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 1.282T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 7.0% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Nov Preliminary CPI M/M: +0.l%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Nov Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bill
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q3 Current Account Balance: -$14.4Be v -$14.6B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.5%e v -0.3% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -2.0%e v -1.5% prior
- 12:00 (FR) France Oct Jobseekers Net Change: +12.0Ke v +60K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.305Me v 3.296M prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Oct Jobless Rate: 3.9%e v 4.0% prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Oct National CPI Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: +0.2%e v 0.0% prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 2.0%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.3%e v 5/1% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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