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Friday November 29, 2013 - 17:34:34 GMT
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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - MUCH TO WRAP UP IN FINAL WEEKS OF YEAR

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 29 NOVEMBER 2013

 

 

MUCH TO WRAP UP IN FINAL WEEKS OF YEAR

 

• Payrolls could keep markets guessing over December taper

• Autumn Statement allows Chancellor to deliver good news, MPC on hold

• ECB forecasts 2015 outlook, arguments for further policy easing to roll into 2014

 

A busy end to the year... As December approaches, markets’ natural inclination to wind down to year-end could well be interrupted by some key events. While an important FOMC meeting and the US Budget committee report are due later in the month, the coming week sees the UK Autumn Statement and MPC announcement, the ECB announcement and a US employment report that could prove critical to the timing of the US tapering debate. As volumes thin, this could lead to some volatile reactions.

 

Markets wary of strong US payrolls... As well as the latest monthly barometers of US activity in the ISM indices, the coming week sees November’s payrolls report. This will be the last employment report before the next Fed policy meeting on 18 December. We forecast a 175kmrise in payrolls this month, softer than October’s 204k and below consensus. However, uncertainty surrounds the release and markets would likely view a third 200k+ rise in four months as evidence that the labour market has improved sufficiently for the Fed to announce tapering in December. The unemployment rate only inched higher in October to 7.3%, despite 700k ‘furloughed’ workers bolstering the numbers, which will reverse this month. We forecast unemployment staying at 7.3%, but a fall is possible and could add to concerns of a near-term tapering.

 

The Chancellor’s good news ... Domestically, the Autumn Statement provides the Chancellor with his first opportunity to deliver good fiscal news. The economy has grown more quickly than the OBR forecast in March and an upgrade to its growth projections should be consistent with a £90bn lowering of the projected borrowing profile. The Chancellor is likely to introduce some policies to ease the ‘cost of living’ squeeze faced by households. However, a persistent structural deficit is likely to constrain policy to fiscal neutrality overall. This leaves the outlook for an increasingly tighter fiscal stance over the next few years.

 

MPC lets FPC fire first shots... The MPC also meet this week, announcing its decision on Thursday after the Autumn Statement. There is little chance of a policy change. With unemployment in excess of 7%, the Bank’s commitment to no change will likely prevail. Moreover, this week’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) included measures to guard against excessive imbalances developing in the housing market. This was surprising only in that it happened earlier than we expected. The FPC hopes that small measures now may prevent larger implications later. From a monetary policy perspective, tighter macroprudential policy should delay the need for tighter monetary policy. The FPC minutes published in the coming week will add further detail. Markets will take their cue from PMI reports, which we expect to soften.

 

ECB, time for reflection... The ECB announces its latest policy decision on Thursday. The euro area recovery remains fragile and although this week’s rebound in inflation should have eased fears of deflation, a stagnant economy and large output gap suggest the need for looser policy. Reports abound of further imminent easing by the ECB - even after last month’s refi rate cut. We have sympathy with this view, but do not expect any change this month. Another LTRO appears the most likely next move. But banks may be wary of taking this up ahead of the end of this year. Moreover, we believe the prospects of other measures, such as a deposit rate cut or asset purchases, remain distant barring a significant deterioration in conditions. Accordingly, this meeting may focus on new economic projections and ongoing efforts, including the first sight of 2015 forecasts and further detail on the comprehensive bank review.

 

 

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This document, its contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds. This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form, by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.

 

 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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