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Sunday December 1, 2013 - 14:23:44 GMT
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Active Global Calendar. Friday U.S. November Jobs highlight
|Active Global Calendar. Friday U.S. November Jobs highlight|
2 December 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR:Far East: CN- PMI's. Europe: FR/DE/EZ PMIs, GB- PMIs. North America: US- PMI's, Construction Spending, COT Report|
| EURUSD 1.3585
|| U.S. 2.74% -1bp
|| North America:Lower|
| EURJPY 139.19
|| Bund 1.69% -4bp
|| DE: DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6364
|| GILT 2.77% 0bp
|| GB: FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.40
|| JGB 0.61% 0bp
|| Asia Close Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- PMI's, FR/DE/EZ PMIs, GB- PMIs. US- PMI'
- There is little doubt that the U.K recently has been the best performer as its recovery seems to be solidly in place. The U.S. is showing signs of improvement, although we have serious doubts about the sustainability of the housing rebound. There is no doubt that the global economy is counting on the apparent recoveries in the U.S.and U.K., so we are in data-driven markets.
- The Fed remains uncomfortable with its current asset purchase program. Most members of the board do not like its ballooning balance sheet and would like to "taper" its bond purchases as soon as possible. This is not because they want to tighten monetary policy. It is due fears of the possible long term consequences of holding too much government debt. Markets are therefore highly sensitive to any economic release that might move forward the date when they can start to cut back.
- The Fed has gone to great pains to distinguish between monetary policy and a tapering of asset purchases. So it is likely that at some time soon long term interest rates could start to move higher while short term rates do not move. We have already elaborated here at length why technical factors could postpone a tapering until March 2014. We feel Fed tapering would be a USD positive.
- The week ahead sees an exceptionally active data calendar. PMI data will start to be released on Monday and continue all week. Central Bank policy decisions are due from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England, Bank of England and European Central Bank. The end of the week then sees key employment data from the United States and Canada.
- See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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