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Monday December 2, 2013 - 10:04:52 GMT
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Initial PMI data mostly better. US jobs Friday the highlight
|Initial PMI data mostly better. US jobs Friday the highlight|
2 December 2013 10:00 gmt
| CALENDAR:. North America: US- PMI's, Construction Spending, COT Report|
| EURUSD 1.3585
|| U.S. 2.79% +3bp
|| North America:Higher|
| EURJPY 139.19
|| Bund 1.73% +4bp
|| DE: DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6364
|| GILT 2.84% +7bp
|| GB: FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 102.40
|| JGB 0.62% +1bp
|| Asia Close Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- PMI's
- Today is seeing the first wave of final November manufacturing PMI releases. In general, the data are in line with our observation that the global economy is in a modest expansion phase with data to a greater or lesser extent improving. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released. The U.S. data are due later.
- The Fed remains uncomfortable with its current asset purchase program. Most members of the board do not like its ballooning balance sheet and would like to "taper" its bond purchases as soon as possible. Markets are highly sensitive to any economic release that might move forward the date when they can start to cut back.
- The Fed has gone to great pains to distinguish between monetary policy and a tapering of asset purchases. So it is likely that at some time soon long term interest rates could start to move higher while short term rates do not move. We have already elaborated here at length why technical factors could postpone a tapering until March 2014. We feel Fed tapering would be a USD positive.
- The week ahead sees an exceptionally active data calendar. PMI releases will continue all week. Central Bank policy decisions are due from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England, Bank of England and European Central Bank. The end of the week then sees key employment data from the United States and Canada.
- See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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