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Monday December 2, 2013 - 11:33:51 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Fall in German Plant & Equipment offsets improvement in PMI Manufacturing data for Europe

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Fall in German Plant & Equipment offsets improvement in PMI Manufacturing data for Europe
Mon, 02 Dec 2013 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Central banks will be in focus this week as five of the G10 hold monetary policy meetings, with the emphasis expected to be dovish across the board
- (CN) China Nov Manufacturing PMI matches 19-month high (51.4e vs. 51.1e) while HSBC/Markit Nov Manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs. 50.5e); China Shanghai slumps focusing on equity dilution concerns as CSRC may streamline IPO process by next January
- Protests raged in Thailand and Ukraine over the weekend
- Mixed Black Friday data: ShopperTrack saw sales on Thanksgiving+Black Friday up 2.3% y/y, and National Retail Federation (NRF) saw weekend spending falling to $57.4B v $59.1B y/y.
- European PMI Manufacturing data mostly shows improvement (Beating expectations include: Sweden, Norway, Poland, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany and Euro Zone; Missing expectation was Spain, which registered its 1st contraction in four months)
- German VDMA Oct Machine Tool Order declines 10% y/y led by fall in foreign orders

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Nov HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 v 49.6 prior; first growth in 4 months and highest in 8-months
- (RU) Russia Nov Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 v 51.8 prior; 4th contraction in 5 months

- (JP) Japan Nov Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 13.3% v 17.3% prior; 3rd consecutive monthly rise
- (AU) Australia Nov Commodity Index AUD: 89,9 v 88.1 prior; Commodity Index Y/Y: -1.9 v -0.5% prior
- (IE) Ireland Investec Nov Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 54.9 prior; 6th straight month in expansion territory but first MoM decline in 7 months
- (CN) China Oct Leading Index: 99.54 v 99.64 prior
- (TH) Thailand Nov CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov PMI Manufacturing: 56.0 v 53.6e
- (NL) Netherlands Nov PMI Manufacturing: 56.8 v 54.4 prior; highest since April 2011 (31-month high)
- (NO) Norway Nov Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 v 53.4e
- (HU) Hungary Nov Manufacturing PMI: 52.6 v 51.0 prior
- (TR) Turkey Nov Manufacturing PMI: 55.0 v 53.3 prior; highest since March 2011 (32-month high)
- (PL) Poland Nov Manufacturing PMI: 54.4 53.6e; 7th straight month in expansion
- (EU) ECB 74M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 11M prior; 56.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 40.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain Nov Manufacturing PMI: 48.6 v 50.9 prior; first contraction in 4 months
- (CZ) Czech Republic Nov Manufacturing PMI: 55.4 v 54.5 prior; 8th straight month in expansion and highest in 2 1/2 years
- (CH) Swiss Nov PMI Manufacturing PMI: 56.5 v 54.6e
- (AT) Austria Nov Unemployment Rate 8.0 v 7.4% prior
- (IT) Italy Nov PMI Manufacturing: 51.4 v 50.7 prior; 5th straight month of expansion
- (FR) France Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 48,4 v 47.8e
- (DE) Germany Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 52.7 v 52.5e; confirmed 5th straight month of growth
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 51.5e

- (GR) Greece Nov Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 v 47.3 prior; 50th straight month in contraction territory but a 51 month high
- (ZA) South Africa Nov Kagiso Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 51.1e
- (NO) Norway Oct Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.2e
- (DE) German Oct Plant and Equipment orders: -10.0% y/y
- (UK) Nov PMI Manufacturing: 58.4 v 56.1e; highest since Feb 2011
- (DK) Denmark Nov Danish PMI: 58.1 v 54.1 prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4% at 3,075,
FTSE 100 -0.5% at 6,620, DAX -0.1% at 9,395, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,280, IBEX-35 -1.0% at 9,743, FTSE MIB -0.9% at 18,847, SMI -0.2% at 8,248, S&P 500 Futures +0.0% at 1,804

- Market Focal Points: Markets opened slightly flat to negative. Selling picked up early in the session after a much weaker than expected Spanish PMI. Consequent national PMI's were in-line and stemmed the selling into mid-day. Spain's IBEX remains the outperformer to the downside. Overall there was a risk-off sentiment in European equity markets on the first day of trading in Dec after a very good Nov.

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[L'Oreal OR.FR +1.1% (share buyback), Tesco TSCO.UK -2.2% (downgrade)]
- Industrials [ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE -6.9% (Alabama $1.55B plant sale, $1B share sale), Outokumpu OUT1V.FI +27% (Terni sale, strengthens balance sheet), Renault RNO.FR -0.9% (poor Nov car registrations)]
- Materials [Talvivaara TALV.UK +17% (follow through on re-org news)]
- Telecom [Deutsche Telekom DTE.DE -0.5% (job cuts), Telecom Italia TIT.IT -1.3% (denies sale of TIM Brazil]
- Financials [UBS UBSN.CH flat (bond buyback), Llyods LLOY.UK +1.2% (Osborne affirm stake sale]
- Energy [Centrica CNA.UK 0.0% (To reduce prices 3.2%), Scottish & Southern Energy SSE.UK +0.3% (to reduce prices about 4%)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Constancio
(Portugal): ECB to use simplified rules on Non-performing Loans (NPLs) initially. Not surprised if SSM prompted bank restructuring in the region. ECB to address differences in risk models. He did not want radical separation of investment banking and retail banking
- German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that Euro region no longer faced contagion risks and reiterated view that Euro was a stable currency
- France PM Arryault: Opposed to new Sunday store openings
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Hopes EU banks are adequately provisioned for EU stress tests next year
- Morgan Stanley cuts 2014 Euro Zone GDP growth forecast from 0.9% to 0.5%
- Goldman Sachs Chief Japan strategist Matsui: Sees signs Japan is exiting deflation
- South Korea to announce property measures on Tuesday. Dec 3rd
- Moody's: China banking system outlook remains stable, but challenges remain
- India Central Bank (RBI) to keep all options open on settlement for oil marketing companies including INR currency settlement. il marketing companies had started accessing FX market for entire daily USD demand; allowed to source USD beyond their normal daily needs. Might open a swap window on a rare day of increased demand

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Central banks will be in focus this week as five of the G10 hold monetary policy meetings, with the emphasis expected to be dovish across the board
- The GBP/USD broke above the 1.6380 level during the Asian session to approach 2 year highs at 1.6443 before consolidating. The GBP was aided by weekend press speculation that upcoming mid-fiscal year update to be presented by Chancellor Osborne this Thursday would have an optimistic tone. The UK PMI data also helped the currency firm up against the Euro with the cross at 0.8255
- The EUR/USD broke minor hourly support at 1.3570 during the session to extend losses despite the improvement in the bulk of PMI readings. The decline in Germany's Oct Plant &Equipment Orders was cited as a factor. The decline in foreign orders was primarily attributable to slim demand from non-euro members
- The USD/JPY pair continued to hit fresh 6-month highs as it edge close towards the 103 handle.

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) Weekend press: polls suggest SPD members will vote for the coalition agreement with CDU/CSU
- (DE) German Bavarian FinMin (CSU) criticised ECB low rates; could cause long term financial instability
-(DE) German Retail Assoc: Christmas shopping off to good start; sales above last year last week
- (IT) ECB's Visco (Italy): There is a risk of overburdening monetary policy and the ECB is aware of this risk
- (IT) Italy govt has started to move its stake into one investment vehicle to help attract investors -
- (GR) Moodys raises Greece sovereign rating two notches to Caa3 from C; outlook stable; cites the national economy bottoming out
- (GR) Greece finance ministry: We remain in constant contact with the Troika; working to set a convenient date for the Troika to return to Athens
- (GR) Troika confirmed it will not visit Greece next week as a result of Greece's failings to deliver on commitments; No decision on when the mission would resume but discussions are ongoing; As a result, the next loan tranche will not be decided at the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for Dec 9th
- (CH) Swiss Govt: Swiss banks face increased asset due diligence requirements
- (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Does not consider achieving 2% inflation has become harder; no need, plans to change price target
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari to be hospitalized for about 3-4 days for medical examinations
- CN) Japan PM Abe and US Vice President Biden said to agree to ask China to remove its air identification zone
- (IR) Iran nuclear chief Salehi: Reiterates view that Iran will never abandon Arak heavy water reactor
- (US) Holiday sales update from ShopperTrak - total brick-and-motor traffic on Thanksgiving and Black Friday rose 2.8% while sales in the period increased 2.3%. The numbers where somewhat underwhelming and there were signs Thanksgiving sales stole from Black Friday - Black Friday traffic fell 11% and sales were down 13% from the year-ago period. ShopperTrak reiterated its prediction that sales for the whole season will increase 2.4%. Online sales update from IBM - Thanksgiving Day online sales grew 19.7% year-over-year followed by Black Friday, with sales increasing 19% compared with the prior year. Average order value for Black Friday rose 2.2% to $135.27 compared with the prior year.'

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RO) Romania Nov International Reserves: No est v $37.8B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Nov Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v -2.9% prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -47.7B prior
- (RU) Russia Nov Reserve Fund: No est v $87.2B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $88.7B prior
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell up to 4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bills and Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2018 and 2020 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.2 prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces sizes in upcoming bond auction
- 08:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke
- 08:30 (CH) Swiss Government Question Time in Parliament
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell combined 6.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 08:58 (US) Nov Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 54.3e v 54.3 prelim

- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Manufacturing: 55.1e v 56.4 prior; Prices Paid: 55.0e v 55.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept./Oct. Construction released jointly Due to Shutdown
- 10:00 (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: 0.4%e
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Total Remittances: $1.8Be v $1.8B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $59B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Nov New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -5.6% prior
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Trade Balance: +$450Me v -$224M prior; Total Exports: $20.2Be v $22.8B prior; Total Imports: $19.8Be v $23.1B prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Nov IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.3 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.6 prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.8% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Nov Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 56.3 prior
- 22:30 (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50%

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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