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Monday December 2, 2013 - 19:21:46 GMT
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Initial PMI data mostly better. US jobs Friday the highlight
|Initial PMI data mostly better. US jobs Friday the highlight|
2 December 2013 10:00 gmt
| CALENDAR:. Far East: AU- RBA Decision. Europe: EZ- PPI. North America: US- API Energy|
| EURUSD 1.3535
|| U.S. 2.80% +5bp
|| North America:Mixed|
| EURJPY 139.54
|| Bund 1.74% +5bp
|| DE: DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6355
|| GILT 2.84% +7bp
|| GB: FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 103.09
|| JGB 0.62% +1bp
|| Asia Close Mostly down|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: No Major Data
- Today is seeing the first wave of final November manufacturing PMI releases. In general, the data from the Far East and Europe were in line with our observation that the global economy is in a modest expansion phase. The final U.S. Markit PMI was revised higher and the ISM mfg PMI gained as well. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released. The U.S. data are due later.
- The Fed has gone to great pains to distinguish between monetary policy and a tapering of asset purchases. So it is likely that at some time soon long term interest rates could start to move higher while short term rates do not move. This decision will be very much data dependent. We have already elaborated here at length why technical factors could postpone a tapering until March 2014. We feel Fed tapering would be a USD positive.
- Also Japanese authorities floated a trial balloon about more Quantitative Ease at some time in the very near future. The USDJPY is trading higher on the news.
- The week ahead sees an exceptionally active data calendar. PMI releases will continue all week. Central Bank policy decisions are due from the Reserve Bank of Australia (Tues), Bank of England, Bank of Canada (Wed), Bank of England (Thu) and European Central Bank (Thu). The end of the week then sees key employment data from the United States and Canada.
- See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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