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Thursday December 5, 2013 - 16:57:20 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Second Reading of US GDP and ECB Staff Inflation Forecasts In Focus US Market Update: Second Reading of US GDP and ECB Staff Inflation Forecasts In Focus
Thu, 05 Dec 2013 11:31 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 29th: $514.9B v $505.9B prior
- (CL) Chile Oct Economic Activity M/M: -0.1% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 4.0%e
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) left both Interest rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively, as expected
- (RU) Russia Nov CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.4%e; CPI YTD: 5.9% v 5.8%e
- (RU) Russia Nov CPI Core M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.5% prior
- (US) Nov Challenger Job Cuts 49.7K v 45.7K prior; Y/Y: -20.6% v -4.2% prior
- (US) Dec RBC Consumer Outlook Index: 49.7 v 47.0 prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov Vehicle Production: 289.6K v 323.8K prior; Vehicle Sales: 302.9K v 330.2K prior; Vehicle Exports: 45.2K v 51.8K prior
- (EU) ECB left all Key Rates unchanged (Main Refi Rate unchanged at 0.25%; Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%)
- (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Annualized Q/Q: 3.6% v 3.1%e; Personal Consumption: 1.4% v 1.5%e
- (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 2.0% v 1.9%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.5% v 1.4%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 298K v 321Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.744M v 2.80Me
- (CA) Canada Oct Building Permits M/M: 7.4% v 1.0%e
- (MX) Mexico Oct Leading Indicators M/M: +0.02 v -0.01 prior
- (CA) Canada Nov Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 53.7v 59.5e; PMI Unadj: 48.2 v 64.2 prior
- (US) Oct Factory Orders: -0.9% v -1.0%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -162 bcf v -141 to -147 bcf expected

- It's hard to tell whether today's declines are more about disappointment with a flawed GDP reading (weaker growth) or disappointment with a strong GDP reading (taper sooner), but US equity indices are not far from their lows. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.28%, the S&P500 is down 0.32% and the Nasdaq is down 0.17%.

- The second reading of US Q3 GDP certainly looked robust at first glance, gaining strongly over the advance reading seen back in early November. However, the gains were driven entirely by upward revisions to inventories, which increased $116.5 billion and contributed 1.7 percentage points to the headline number, up from an initial estimate of $86 billion. Meanwhile, the key residential fixed investment and export components were both lower than the advance readings. These key distinctions take a lot of the shine off the strong headline number. The continuing claims dropped further last week, to lows seen in December 2007.

- The greenback has suffered in the wake of this morning's US data and ECB staff projections. The euro weakened after the rate decision and into the GDP report, but the release of the ECB staff projections just after the beginning of the ECB press conference past 8:30ET drove a big reversal in EUR/USD and put the euro at its strongest level in a month. While inflation forecasts were revised lower for both 2013 and 2014, the revisions were much smaller than expected and analysts see little prospect of deflation in the new forecasts. Note also that gold has given up all its surprising gains from yesterday, with spot down 1.5% and back around $1,228.

- Shares of Microsoft are trading off this morning as Ford official dismiss talk that CEO Mulally will be stepping down any time soon. Mulally has been frequently mentioned as a strong contender to replace departing CEO Ballmer. In a TV interview, Ford board member Edsel Ford II said Mulally would remain as Ford CEO through the end of 2014. Shares of MSFT dropped as much as 3%.

- Kroger is down nearly 4% after met expectations in its Q3 report and reiterated its full-year forecast. Revenue grew incrementally y/y, however net income was down 6% y/y.

- The remaining firms that report monthly same-store sales disclosed tepid comps for the month of November. Note that the reports are for the four weeks ended Nov. 30th of this year, which compare to the four weeks ended Dec. 1st, 2012, so this year's comps did not include Thanksgiving Sunday or Cyber Monday, unlike the 2012 reports. Retail names are down another one or two percent a piece, after three or four days of declines. Note that New York & Company are down 15% after missing expectations in its Q3 report and offering terrible Q4 guidance.

- Note that the shipping names are gaining this morning after the Baltic Dry Bulk Index saw its eight straight increase this morning, putting the key measure above the 2,000 level for the first time since early October, at just about one-year highs.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Fisher in TX
- 12:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy in Brussels
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Nov CPI M/M: +0.1%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.8% prior




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