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Thursday December 5, 2013 - 20:03:08 GMT
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ECB policy comments drive EUR higher. Friday jobs the next focus
|ECB policy comments drive EUR higher. Friday jobs the next focus|
6 December 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR:: Far East: JP- Lead Indicator. Europe: CH- CPI, DE- Factory Orders. North America: US- Employment, Personal Indicators, PCE Deflator, Employment, University of Michigan Survey, COT Report|
| EURUSD 1.3673
|| U.S. 2.86% +2bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 139.94
|| Bund 1.85% +5bp
|| DE: DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6337
|| GILT 2.92% +2bp
|| GB: FTSE:Lower|
| USDJPY 101.68
|| JGB 0.66% +2bp
|| Asia Close Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- factory Orders, US- Employment, Personal Income, PCE Deflator,
- Neither the Bank of England nor the European Central Bank interest rate decisions (no changes) had any impact on the forex markets Thursday. However, the ECB press conference gave the EURUSD a boost as President Draghi expressed some inflationary concerns and dismissed any possibility the ECB might intervene in forex markets to push the EURUSD lower. Draghi reiterated that forex policy is not an ECB mandate.
- Japan has announced a major stimulus plan designed to offset an increase in the Japanese consumption tax. Large scale Japanese stimulus programs have a long history of not being as large as they appear.
- Friday sees key employment data from the United States and Canada. On Wednesday, the volatile ADP private jobs data came in at a better than expected +215K for Private Payrolls. While strong, the data do not ensure a NFP above +200K, but it was a positive indicator. On the other hand, the ISM Services PMI was weaker than expected. That reading could point to a softer NFP report.
- Otherwise, rising inventories saw a strong upward revision in 3Q13 U.S. GDP to an annualized +3.60%. It is always tricky to predict the future impact of rising inventories. Weekly jobless Claims fell to below the 300K level in the latest week. Those data are difficult to assess as well.
- See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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