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Friday December 6, 2013 - 11:06:00 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: US jobs report to hold key to Fed taper timetable

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: US jobs report to hold key to Fed taper timetable
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 5:13 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Focus on key employment data from the United States and Canada in NY morning
- How equity markets respond to the movements in bonds today could dictate the forex reaction to the data

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 2nd (RUB): 7.88T v 7.92T prior
- (JP) Japan Oct Preliminary Leading Index CI: 109.9 v 109.7e; Coincident Index: 109.6 v 109.7e
- (AU) Australia Nov Foreign Reserves: A$59.9B v A$57.2B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Nov Gross Reserves: $49.4B v $49.5Be; Net Reserves: $45.4B v $46.0Be
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Nov 29th (y/y): +18.4% v +2.1% prior
- (FR) France Oct Trade Balance: -$4.7B v -$5.5Be
- (FR) Oct YTD France Budget Balance: -86.0B v -80.8B prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 141.5K v 148.7K prior
- (UK Nov Halifax House Prices M/M: 1.1% v 0.8%e; 3M/3M: 7.7% v 7.3%e
- (HU) Hungary Oct Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +1.8% prior; Y/Y: 6.0% v 5.8%e
- (CH) Swiss Nov Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 435.7B v 435.3Be
- (DK) Denmark Oct Industrial Production M/M: 1.5% v 2.9% prior
- (CH) Swiss Nov CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v -0.1%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Budget Balance (SEK): +13.0BB v -7.4B prior
- (AT) Austria Nov Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -2.2% v -3.0% prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov International Reserves: $55.5B v $47.5B prior
- (CZ) Czech Q3 Current Account Balance: -$1.0B v -$0.5Be
- (MY) Malaysia Nov Foreign Reserves: $136.3B v $136.7B prior
- (NO) Norway Oct Industrial Production M/M: -2.9% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -7.5% v -1.4% prior
- (NO) Norway Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.6% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.2% prior
- (IS) Iceland Q3 GDP Q/Q: +6.1 v -6.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.9% v 3.8% prior
- (UK) BoE/GfK Nov Inflation Expectations Survey: Next 12 Month: 3.6% v 3.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2019, 2023, 2032 and 2042 bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2046 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.5%,
FTSE 100 +0.50% at 6,532, DAX +0.7% at 9,145, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,118, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 9,372, FTSE MIB -0.6% at 17,889, SMI +0.4% at 8,059, S&P 500 Futures +0.5% at 1,792]

- Market Focal Points: Most European equity markets trade higher ahead of US payrolls report as equities declined in the prior 4 sessions, IBEX-35 underperforms amid declines in the banking sector, Equity placements continue (TNT Express, Givaudan)

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Berkeley Group BKG.UK +8.5% (guidance, raised dividend by 500%); Dominos UK DOM.UK -5% (CEO resigned), Givaudan GIVN.CH -3.5% (share placement)]
- Telecom [KPN KPN.NL +1.5% (broker commentary), Deutsche Telekom DTE.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [BP BP.UK +1% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Hochtief HOT.DE -4.5% (broker commentary), TNT Express TNTE.NL -4.5% (share placement)]
- Stoxx 50 Sectors [Industrials +1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1%, Energy +0.6%, Technology +0.4%, Financials +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.1%, Utilities flat; Telecom -0.4%]

Speakers:
- ECB's Praet (Belgium): Reiterates view of not seeing signs pointing towards deflation.
Doubts about ECB's ability to react were unfounded
- ECB's Coeure (France) stated that there was not a strong case for more fiscal centralization beyond banking supervision. ECB lowered rates in Nov for sole purpose of ensuring medium term price stability. Need symmetric price stability, inflation should be neither to high nor too low
- ECB's Nowotny stated that US growth might be stronger than expected, reiterated euro area recession had ended but upswing would be subdued. He also reiterated that inflation expectations were stable and no need for immediate action.Euro zone competitiveness assured despite rise in Euro. ECB was trying to address the SME loan area
- German Bundesbank semiannual forecasts raised its 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts and cut its inflation view. It now saw 2013 growth forecast no higher than +0.5% vs +0.3% forecast in June with 2014 GDP growth at 1.7% from 1.5%. 2014 inflation forecast was cut to 1.3% from 1.5%
- Austria Central Bank trimmed its 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts. The 2013 GDP growth was cut to 0.4% from 0.5% prior while the 2014 GDP was cut from 1.5% to 1.4%
- Norway statistics agency cuts its 2014 Mainland GDP from 3.0% to 2.1%
- EU and IMF officials said to return to Greece on Wed, Dec 11th to resume the country's economic adjustment program with a deal with the Troika is expected by the end of Dec.
- Greece was said to seek a late Troika deal for a July loan tranche and push for a 1B release as soon as possible
- China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC): China to further study exit rules for financial companies' fails

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action was muted ahead of the US Nov payroll report. Dealers debated various scenarios (over 250K or under 150K) interms of timing of Fed tapering. One aspect seemed to emerge that the USD might encounter a 'lose-lose' situation. Another strong jobs report could build a case for the Fed to reduce its bond-buying stimulus program, perhaps as early as this month
- The EUR/USD was just off its fresh 1-month peak of 1.3677 throughout the session
- JPY traded softer during the Asian session after Japan pension fund official called for a reduction of domestic bond holdings in favor of less risk-averse assets.

Political/In the Papers:
- German Fin Min to hold a secret meeting Friday with his European counterparts in German to discuss the issues over proposed procedures for winding down failing banks. (Expected that EU's Barnier, ECB's Asmussen, Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem and France Fin Min Moscovici will be attending)
-(DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Tax revenue has been increasing on a moderate basis, there is only limited ability to increase spending - comments on Federal Stability Council; Structural deficit expected to be gone in 2014; will stop adding new debt from 2015
- (IT) ECB said to have delayed giving their approval to the revaluation of Bank of Italy (BOI) capital held by banks
-(US) US Fed's Lockhart: Strong Nov jobs number would boost confidence for a taper; Q3 GDP was strong, but not yet a 'trend'
-(US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, 2014 voter): Recent highs in equity markets may not be sustainable.
- (CN) China said to launch negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) next week; Expects to set Shibor as pricing benchmark
- (JP) Chairman of govt appointed panel Takatoshi Ito: Public pension fund GPIF should immediately reduce domestic Bond holdings to 52%; need to start selling bonds as soon as possible - financial press interview

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CH) Swiss government meeting
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov. Olsen speaks in Oslo
- (DE) German Fin Ministry confirm it is holding bank union meeting
- (RU) Russia Nov Official Reserve Assets: $512.0Be v $524.3B prior
- (IT) Bank of Italy Nov Report on Balance-Sheet Aggregates
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Oct Factory Orders M/M: -1.0%e v +3.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.1%e v 7.9% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.6%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Industrial Production M/M: No est v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.7% prior
- 06:00 (CL) Chile Nov CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly 3-year LTRO Funds repayment vs. 6.0Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Nov 29th: No est v $286.3B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Official Reserves: No est v $105.5B prior
- 08:20 (DE) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) in Berlin
- 08:30 (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +185Ke v +204K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +180Ke v +212K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +10Ke v +19K prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: 7.2%e v 7.3% prior; Underemployment Rate: no est v 13.8% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v -735K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 62.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.2% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.4 prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior; Personal Spending: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct PCE Deflator M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: +12.0Ke v +13.2K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.9%e v 6.9% prior;
Full Time Employment Change: No est v +16K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -2.7K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.4% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q3 Labor Productivity Q/Q: No est v 0.5% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Gross Fixed Investment: -6.0%e v -5.4% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prelim
- 09:55 (US) Dec Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 76.0e v 75.1 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.50%

- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.25B in notes
- 10:15(US) Fed's Plosser with Former Fed Chairman Greenspan speak at Philadelphia Fed Conference
- 15:00 (US) Fed's Evans in Chicago
- 15:00 (US) Oct Consumer Credit: $14.6Be v $13.7B prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Export FOB: $4.9Be v $4

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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