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Friday December 6, 2013 - 16:54:00 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: November US Jobs Report Tees up a Taper, As Good News Is Finally Good News

 

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: November US Jobs Report Tees up a Taper, As Good News Is Finally Good News
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 11:34 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Oct Factory Orders M/M: -2.2% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 4.1%e
- (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.8%e
- (IE) Ireland Oct Industrial Production M/M: -11.6% v +2.2% prior; Y/Y: -7.6% v +10.4% prior
- (CL) Chile Nov CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.1%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Nov 29th: $291.3B v $286.3B prior
- (PL) Poland Nov Official Reserves: $107.1B v $105.5B prior
- (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +203K v +185Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +196K v +180Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +27K v +10Ke
- (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: 7.0% v 7.2%e; Underemployment Rate: 13.2% v 13.8% prior; Change in Household Employment: +818K v +735Ke; Labor Force Participation Rate: 63.0% v 62.8% prior
- (US) Nov Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5 v 34.5e
- (US) Oct Personal Income: -0.1% v +0.3%e; Personal Spending: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (US) Oct PCE Deflator M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (US) Oct PCE Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y:1.1% v 1.1%e
- (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: +21.6K v +12.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.9%e
- (CA) Canada Q3 Labor Productivity Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (MX) Mexico Sept Gross Fixed Investment: -5.5% v -6.0%e
- (BE) Belgium Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim
- (US) Dec Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 82.5 v 76.0e
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected

- European indices and US futures surged this morning before the open of US cash trading after the very good November jobs report. The tone is strong and the S&P is back above 1800, while the Dow is poised to pop back above 16000. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.94%, the S&P500 is up 0.86% and the Nasdaq is up 0.68%.

- The November jobs report was unambiguously positive, with the 203K gain in NFPs well above the 180K expected. The unemployment rate fell to 7% from 7.3% in October. The labor force participation rate rose slightly to 63% from 62.8%. Today's jobs report plus yesterday's decent GDP report (despite its flaws) make it pretty clear that there are precious few reasons for the Fed not to taper at this point. Interestingly the unemployment rate is now at the level where Chairman Bernanke - in his June QE exit speech - originally believed QE would already be over, although that goal was later abandoned.

- The WSJ's Hilsenrath points out markets are much more well-disposed to a taper now than they were in September. The Fed's low rate pledge has sunken in, and fed fund futures suggest markets do not expect a rate hike until Q4 of 2015, whereas in September rate increases were expected by the end of 2014. PIMCO's Bill Gross said that he believes there is a 50% chance of a December taper at this point, although Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius opined that the numbers were not a blockbuster and that the Fed would not taper in December. The FOMC meets on Dec 17-18 and again on Jan 28-29; the latter is Bernanke's official final meeting, although there is talk that he will step down early to make way for Yellen.

- Shares of Big Lots are down 13% this morning after the company disclosed with earnings that it would withdraw from the Canadian market. Charges from the withdrawal will impact the firm's full-year, and it cut its forecasts for FY13 as a result. Moreover, its Q4 outlook was very weak.

- Solar names are in the red this morning after yesterday's poor earnings report from ReneSola. The company's revenues were pretty strong, but a big impairment charge deepened its quarterly loss. The impairment came from the shutdown of its Sichuan province polysilicon factory in China, and executives did make some cautious comments about rooftop solar demand.

- Interoil finally disclosed its partner for developing LNG export facilities at the Elk-Antelope fields in Papua New Guinea. The firm chose Total, after repeated attempts and failures to strike a deal with Exxon. The deal is valued at as much as $3.6 billion, depending on the size of the resources. Shares of InterOil surged 60% this year to $88.63 on speculation. Today IOC is halted, but futures indicate IOC will open down as much as 20% as deep skepticism emerges about the deal, including varying numbers in press releases out of InterOil and Total. Stay tuned for more.

***Looking Ahead***
- 15:00 (US) Fed's Evans in Chicago
- 15:00 (US) Oct Consumer Credit: $14.6Be v $13.7B prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Export FOB: $4.9Be v $4.9B prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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