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Monday December 9, 2013 - 06:25:28 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: China trade surplus at multi-year high on strong exports, while CPI falls to 3-month lows; Japan Q3 Final GDP growth slows - Source

- China trade data released over the weekend showed a mixed picture. The trade surplus was at the highest level since early January and exports rose 12.7% v 6.2%e, but imports were up just 5.3% - below 6.4% consensus - indicative of tepid domestic demand in spite of the state council efforts to prioritize consumption growth. CPI just missed expectations at 3.0% - a 3-month low - allowing the PBoC to continue to pursue a "prudent" monetary policy in 2014 with the announcement of plans for next year expected as early as this week following the annual Central Economic Work Conference. - Japan Q3 final GDP slows to a 3-quarter low of 0.3% q/q. Despite continued pressure on the yen, exports are still down 0.6% q/q, while Capex component was revised to a flat figure from 0.2% prelim. - Geopolitical tensions continued to percolate in Thailand and Ukraine. Thailand PM announced she would dissolve the lower house of parliament to hold snap elections. Ukraine leadership has taken more of a hard-line, with security services opening up a criminal probe against opposition just as some 200K marchers hit the streets of Kiev, toppling the decades-old statue of the first leader of USSR Lenin. - Australia's QBE down nearly 20% in Sydney following announcement of H1 writedowns in its N America business leading to a steep loss in the period. ***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA NOV TRADE BALANCE : $33.8B V $23.3BE (largest surplus since Jan 2009) >- (CN) CHINA NOV CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) M/M: -0.1% V +0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.1%E (3-month low) - (CN) CHINA NOV PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -1.4% V -1.5%E (smallest decline in 17 months) - (JP) JAPAN Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.4%E; NOMINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.4%E; GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 1.1% V 1.6%E; GDP DEFLATOR Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.3%E - (JP) JAPAN NOV BANKRUPTCIES Y/Y: -10.6% V -7.3% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN NOV BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.3% PRIOR; BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.0% PRIOR (4-year high) - (JP) JAPAN OCT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: -127.9B V 148.9BE; ADJ CURRENT ACCOUNT: -59.3B (2nd consecutive deficit) V 120.7BE; TRADE BALANCE BOP BASIS: -1.09T V -1.01TE - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: -0.8% V -0.1% PRIOR (2nd straight decline) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY VOLUME Q/Q: +0.5% V -3.4% PRIOR; MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: +4.7% V -2.0% PRIOR (5-year high) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV QV HOUSE PRICES Y/Y: 9.2% V 8.9% PRIOR (multi-month high) - (SL) SRI LANKA LEAVES REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.50% (EXPECTED); LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.50% (EXPECTED) ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings; O/N: 3.6200 % v 3.7000% prior (5th consecutive decline); 1-week: 4.4850 % v 4.5500% prior (4th consecutive decline) - (KR) South Korea sells 5-yr govt bonds; avg yield 3.370% - (JP) BOJ to purchase 1.0T in T-bills on Dec 11th - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1130 v 6.1232 prior setting (record high setting for Yuan ) >- USD/KRW: Onshore open at KRW1,053 vs KRW1,058 prior close (28-month high for KRW) - JPY weakness that followed better than expected non-farm payrolls on Friday continues in Monday's Asian session, with USD/JPY rising as high as 103.20 and NZD/JPY cross outperforming others to test 85.70 - an 8-month high. NZD was also relatively firmer, rising to 2-week high $0.8320 against USD and also hitting multi-year highs vs AUD below NZ$1.0970. AUD/USD opened higher by over 20pips above $0.9120 following strong trade data out of China but pared those initial gains to trade unchanged near the $0.91 handle, while EUR/USD traded in a narrow range just above the $1.37 level. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China may set 2014 M2 growth target at 13%, GDP at 7.5% vs 7.5% in 2013 - Chinese press - (CN) China Iron and Steel Association (CISA): China end Nov avg crude steel production 2.09M (lowest since early July) tonnes , -2.0% (biggest decline in 4 months) from mid Nov - (CN) China City of Tianjin said to spend CNY60B on land-reclamation project for preparation of free trade area - Chinese press - (CN) Over 100 cities in China's 25 provinces severely affected by current smog; Super smog reported in China for 7th consecutive day - Chinese press - (CN) PBoC releases guidelines for financial institutions issuing interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) - financial press - (CN) HSBC economist: China imports were disappointing; Domestic demand remains tepid - financial press - (CN) ANZ economist: China trade remained stable in Nov; 2013 will exceed $240B, the highest level since 2008 - Shanghai Daily - (JP) Japan PM Abe: Companies need to increase wages at higher rate than price gains; To announce deregulation measures in the coming weeks - (IN) India's ruling Congress party defeated by the BJP opposition in state elections of 4 critical states - Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh - financial press - (AU) RBA gov Stevens: Foolish to think Australia can eliminate a downturn component from economic cycle after 22 years of uninterrupted growth - US financial press interview (update) - (KR) South Korea MOF official: the views that KRW rise will be tolerated as boosting domestic demand are misguided - financial press - (KR) According to one survey, analysts are unanimous in expectation for Bank of Korea (BOK) to leave rates unchanged at 2.50% at its upcoming December meeting - Korean press - (KR) North Korea's Jang Song Thaek accused of committing 'criminal acts' and dismissed from the govt - press **Europe** - (EU) ECB's Weidmann: ECB still has policy tools at its disposal; Ready and able to act if needed - Italian press - (ES) Spain PM Rajoy: Comfortable with deficit levels; End of recession will boost Spain's revenues - financial press - (UR) Over 100K protesters marched in Kiev, Ukraine amid continued escalation of opposition to Pres Yanukovych, toppling a statue of Lenin and demanding early elections - press ***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +1.8%, S&P/ASX -0.8%, Kospi +1.0%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 1,807, Feb gold +0.1% at $1,229, Jan crude oil +0.2% at $97.82/brl US markets: - PSX: Approves $2B share buyback program (4.6% of market cap); Announces 2014 Capital Program (CAPEX) at $2.7B (+40% y/y) for 2014 - CPWR: Bain, Golden Gate Capital may be interested in Compuware; Deal may be valued at $2.34B - FT - TYC: KKR, CVC Capital said to be among possible bidders for South Korea unit valued at approx $1.6B - financial press Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Weifu High-Technology Group Co Ltd 000581.CN +5.9%, Fujian Longking Co Ltd 600388.CN +0.8%, Beijing SPC Environment Protection Tech 002573.CN +1.0% (China smog for 7th consecutive day; govt tightens environmental control in cement industry) - Industrials: China Packaging 572.HK -30.0% (possible legal action) - Materials: Henan Tongli Cement Co Ltd 000885.CN -2.1%, Huaxin Cement Co Ltd 600801.CN -0.8%, Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co Ltd 000789.CN -0.5% (China tightens environmental control in cement industry); Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Energy 000683.CN +5.7%, Hebei Veyong Bio-Chemical 600803.CN +2.3%, Yunnan Yunwei Co Ltd 600725.CN +0.5% (China Methanol future price hit fresh record high) - Financials: Cinda International Holdings Ltd 111.HK +6.6% (FY13 guidance); China Life Insurance 2628.HK +1.2% (establishes e-commerce subsidiary); QBE Insurance Group Limited QBE.AU -20.5% (FY13 guidance) - Technology: Haier Electronics Group 1169.HK +12.2% (agreement with Alibaba) - Source


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