Tuesday December 10, 2013 - 03:41:49 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 10-Dec-2013 -0340 GMT
Danger of profit-taking across most Equity markets globally.
Dow (16025.53, +0.03%) was absolutely quiet after the huge rally the day before. It needs to remain above 15900 in order to move higher. Nasdaq (4068.75, +0.15%) is trading near our target level of 4100. But it faces a strong channel resistance at the current level and could see profit-taking.
Dax (9195.17, +0.25%) saw good profit-taking last week. It is currently trading below the resistance zone of 9250-300. It also facing resistance from the 21 Day MA at current level. We may see it falling towards 9100 if the resistance holds.
Nikkei (15593, -0.36%) is quiet after the huge gap up yesterday. While a test of 16000 is possible, there are chances of profit-taking there. Shanghai (2239.68, +0.07%) is consolidating within an overall uptrend that can target 2275.
Nifty (6363.90, +1.66%) opened with a huge gap up as mentioned yesterday but was unable to maintain the gain. It closed higher than Friday but there a still chances of a fall to 6300-200 if it unable to rise past the resistance near 6450.
Gold (1239.43) has been trying hard to rise above the 13-day MA in the past 5-6 sessions. We could see some sideways movement in the 1220-1250 region while below 1250. A rise past 1250 (if seen) may take it higher to 1290. Silver (19.778) has risen but came off from the 21-day MA. Overall it is moving sideways and may target resistance near 21-21.50.
Copper (3.2525) is stable and may continue to move sideways in the 3.20-3.30 region with resistance coming up near 3.30.
Brent (109.48) is trading between the 50 and 100-day MA after a sharp fall yesterday, contrary to our expectation of a rise. We may now see it ranged between 106-114 for a week or two. Nymex WTI(97.44) has dipped a bit and is trading near the 50-day Ma at current levels. A fall towards 96 and even 93.9 could be seen if resistances at current levels hold.
Big losses for Dollar, except against the Yen (103.23). The strength in the Euro (1.3760) was expected while that in the Pound (1.6452) was not. While the Euro may find some Resistance near 1.3800, the Pound could build on gains and move higher towards 1.66. The Aussie (0.9111) is stable but can rise towards 0.9170 within its overall bounce from just above the 200-month MA.
Dollar-Yen has reasserted its uptrend but needs to remain above 102.80 in order move higher towards 104.00. But, there are also chances that we may see some sideways consolidation between 103.50-102.50, especially if there is some profit-taking in Euro-Yen (142.03) after its stellar rise.
The Real (2.3160) trades stronger and can gain further. The Rand (10.37) is stable after strengthening from 10.58 last week. The Rouble (32.65) too is strong and can gain further. Taking all of the above into consideration, there are reasonable chances of seeing further strength in the Rupee (61.1350), especially while below 61.50-60. Expect intra-day Resistance at 61.30.
The US 10Yr (2.84%) looks set to test 3.00% but can come off well from there. The German 10Yr (1.84%) remained unchanged. We see the German-US 2 Yr Spread (-0.08%) coming up to a resistance near -0.06%. This could limit Euro gains to 1.38. The Japanese 10Yr (0.65%) has dipped a bit, but can rise a little further. The US-Japan 10 Yr Spread (2.18%) has also dipped.
The Indian 10Yr (8.90%) saw a rise yesterday contrary to our expectation of it coming off alongwith the rupee strength. It may move sideways for a while ahead of the RBI Meeting next week.
DATA TODAY9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK Trade Balance
...Expected -9.10 £ (Bln) ...Previous -9.82 £ (Bln)
...Expected 0.40% ...Previous 0.50% ...Actual 0.30%
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