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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy Q3 Final GDP revised higher for avoid a contraction for first time in 9 quarters

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy Q3 Final GDP revised higher for avoid a contraction for first time in 9 quarters
Tue, 10 Dec 2013 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- JAPAN Q4 BSI Large All Manufacturing registers its first sequential decline in a year (9.7 vs. 15.2 prior)
- Chinese data came in mixed relative to market expectations and little impact on price action
- EU is closing in on a funding compromise that could break the stalemate on single resolution mechanism; govts considering separate treaty to share bank resolution costs and allow pooling of national resolution funds
- Spain borrowing costs rise off multi-year lows at its 6-month and 12-month Bill auction; overall results viewed as steady
- Italy Q3 Final GDP revised higher to 0.0% q/q (first time in 9 quarters its does not contract)


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 42.5 v 43.5e
- (CN) China Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.0% v 10.1%e; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 9.7% v 9.7%e
- (CN) China Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: 13.7% v 13.2%e; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 13.0% v 13.1%e

- (CN) China Nov YTD Fixed Urban Assets: Y/Y: 19.9% v 20.0%e
- (IN) India Nov Local Car Sales: 142.9K v 163.2K prior
- (JP) Japan Nov Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 15.4% v 8.4% prior
- (FI) Finland Oct Industrial Production M/M: -0.6 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -3.4% v -0.9% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Q3 Non-Farm payrolls Q/Q: +0.2 v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: +0.2% v -0.1%e
- (FR) France Oct Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v +0.3%e
- (FR) France Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.2%e
- (CZ) Czech Oct Trade Balance (CZK): 33.6B v 37.5Be
- (TR) Turkey Q3 GDP WDA Q/Q:0.9% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.3 v 4.2% prior; GDP unadj Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.2% prior
- (DK) Denmark Nov CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
- (DK) Denmark Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.5%e
- (EU) ECB 170M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 158M prior; 52.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 54.1B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Oct Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: -5.0% v -1.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Oct Industrial Orders M/M: -2.5% v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: -6.6% v -2.8% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e ; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 0.4% v 3.1% prior
- (IT) Italy Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v +0.2% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -0.5% v -2.2%e
- (NO) Norway Nov CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.4%e
- (NO) Norway Nov CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (NO) Norway Nov PPI including Oil M/M: +0.6 v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 2.3% prior
- (UK) Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v .4%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (UK) Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9%e
- (UK) Oct Visible Trade Balance: -9.7B v -9.2Be; Overall Trade Balance: -2.6B v -2.8Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -3.3B v -3.6Be

- (ZA) South Africa Oct Mining Production M/M: 6.5% v 2.1%e; Y/Y: 22.2% v 4.1%e; Gold Production Y/Y: +74.4% v -3.1% prior
- (GR) Greece Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: -5.2% v -1.8% prior
- (IT) Italy Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.9%e
- (BR) Brazil Dec Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 0.3% v 0.4%e
- (CY) Cyprus Nov CPI Harmonized Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.5% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.54B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated rabge in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills

- (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B in 2023 bond; Avg Yield: 2.89%
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold total 1.625B vs. 1.25B indicated in 26-week Bills; Avg Yield: 4.15% v 4.15% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.11x v 1.86x prior
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total 1.65B vs. 1.65B indicated in 2022 and 2034 RAGB bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted 98.5B in Main 7-day Refi at fixed 0.25% vs. 95.0Be
- (EU) ECB allotted 10.1B in 1-month Refi at fixed 0.25% vs. 3.5Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,568,
DAX +0.2% at 9,217, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,144, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 9,539, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 18,324, SMI -0.1% at 8,046, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,810]

- Market Focal Points: Most European markets trade higher after lower open, China industrial production data in line, SMI underperforms on declines in healthcare sector, ECB Draghi comments later today

By Sector
- Telecom
[Vivendi VIV.FR +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Ashtead AHT.UK +1.5% (positive outlook)]
- Energy [Vopak VPK.NL -3.5% (profit warning)]
- Technology [CSR CSR.UK +8% (cost cuts, long-term outlook)]
- Healthcare [Evotec EVT.DE +2.5% (milestone payment)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +0.8%, Technology +0.2%, Utilities +0.2%, Industrials +0.1%, Financials flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat; Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Energy -0.3%, Basic Materials -0.2%]

Speakers:
- EU Finance Ministers and central bankers (Ecofin) comment ahead of Brussels meeting

- Netherlands Fin Min Dijsselbloem: EU needed strong bail in and resolution fund
- France Fin Min Moscovici reiterated the view that progress was being made on bank resolution talks, EU bank failure deal was possible today. He did see a long day ahead with complex problems to resolve.
- ECB's Asmussen (Germany) noted that differences on SRM had gotten smaller but expected no accord at today's meeting. Needed credible backstop for SRM during transition period. Greece needed to show commitment by pushing through structural reforms
- Sweden Fin Min Borg: Have the ingredients for compromise on SRM at today's meeting. Clear risk a compromise deal might not do enough to bolster the banking system
- EU Commission said Ireland required a 2.5B adjustment for 2014 in order to meet deficit target
-UK DMO quarterly consultation minutes: Gilt Edged Market Makers (GEMMS) unanimously recommending a 2068 IL Gilt for next syndicate; Most GEMMS favored Jan for IL syndicate.
- South Korea said to allow airlines to notify China on schedules
- Japan Vice Econ Min Nishimura stated that the Singapore round made significant progress at Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks but differences still remained between what each country wanted. The ministers planned to meet again in Jan
- US Trade Representative: No discussion on FX at TPP talks

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD continued to be on the defensive. GBP/USD hit fresh two-year highs during the Asian session as leveraged names rolled their long pound positions against dollars and euros, particularly in the Dec/March IMM dates. The EUR/USD hit a fresh Dec high and large stops building above the 1.3830 area.
- Eurozone bond spreads narrowed markedly as officials sought an agreement on banking union. The 10-year Italy/German Gov't bond spread at approx 225bps, narrows by several basis points; tightest since July 2011. The importance of today's meeting of EU finance ministers had been elevated given the self-imposed deadline to achieve some meaningful progress on the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM)

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Germany and France are reportedly close to reaching a deal on banking union - FT; France may compromise and drop demands for a single, central rescue fund for dealing with failed banks. Germany has dropped objections to the European Commission becoming the main authority for winding up failed banks.
- (EU) According to S&P, the results of the ECB's asset quality review (AQR) are not expected to materially impact credit ratings for the larger banks - financial press
- (EU) Moody's: Outlooks on European banking system for 2014 are mostly negative despite seeing some stabilizing trends
-(DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble to be confirmed to another term on Sunday (Dec 15th) - German Press; The announcement on Schaeuble is expected to be made on Sunday, after the SPD releases the results of an internal party vote on the coalition agreement
- (DE) German CDU party (Merkel) approves coalition agreement with SPD
- (GR) EU's Dijsselbloem: Confirms Troika review is unlikely to be completed this year; Greece needs to make more progress on implementing further reforms; Expects to reach staff-level agreement with the Troika by January 15th, last milestone for July tranche could be closed out tomorrow.
- (CY) EMU reportedly approves aid installment
- (IT) Renzi: Italy Center left party indicates willingness to support Govt
- (UK) BoE Carney: UK faces headwinds from Europe, currency and households - financial press interview; inflation has declined sooner than was expected; Will initially use tools other than interest rates to control the economic recovery
-(US) Fed's Bullard (Dovish, FOMC voter): One possibility as a result of the recent economic data could be a small taper at the upcoming meeting; Recent job market gains will boost the case for Fed tapering, job market appears to be set for further improvement
- (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, 2014 voter): Markets are expecting something soon, Fed does not want to scare the markets though the markets are in a better position now to accept a reduction in the amounts of stimulus
-(US) Fed's Lacker (hawkish, non-voter): Very hard to convince participants that changing one monetary policy tool does not have implications for short-term rates; Unrealistic to believe the Fed could make frequent minor changes to amount of monthly bond purchases.
-(US) PIMCO's El-Erian: The Fed will likely cut interest on excess reserves (IOER) as it implements the taper
- (US) Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius: Reiterates Dec taper is less likely than Jan taper.
-(IR) Iran Foreign Min: if US Congress move ahead with plans for vote on new Iran sanctions, then the nuclear deal will be "dead", even if the new sanctions do not go into effect for six months
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS): Sees China 2013 GDP at 7.7% v 7.5% official target; 2014 GDP 7.8%, inflation 2.8%.
-(CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (2nd consecutive session of halted operations)
-(CN) China 5-yr interest rate swap moves to highest level since 2006, near 4.98%; 3-mo Shibor rate rise to 5.3380%, highest level since June 28th.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EBA Banking Shareholders Group Meeting
- (PE) Peru Oct Trade Balance: No est v $32M prior
- (PT) Bank of Portugal Nov Bank borrowings from ECB
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 1.0B in 0.75% I/L 2047 Gilts
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: +3.1%e v -4.7% prior; Y/Y: -2.0%e v -3.3% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Oct Trade Balance: No est v -916M prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.9% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Bills
- 06:30 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender
- 07:00 (SI) Slovenia to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 07:00 (EU) ECB President Draghi speaks in Rome
- 07:30 (US) Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism: 92.6e v 91.6prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Winter Economic Bulletin
- 08:15 World Bank President Kim in Washington DC
- 08:30 IMF's Lagarde in Brussels
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: No est v 206.8B prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Nominal Wages: No est v % prior
- 09:30 (US) Financial regulators meet on Volker rule
- 10:00 (US) Oct JOLTs Job Openings: No est v 3.913M prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (UK) Nov NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.7% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 11:00 (US)Fed to purchase $1.00-1.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $65B in 4-week and 52-week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 3-Year Notes

- 16:00 (EU) EcoFin press conference
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Export Price Index M/M: No est v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.6% prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Import Price Index M/M: No est v -2.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -7.3% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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