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Fed taper speculation increases again. Bond markets vote no
|Fed taper speculation increases again. Bond markets vote no|
11 December 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: Far East: AU- Employment. Europe: No major Data. North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, 10-yr auction, Weekly Crude|
| EURUSD 1.3766
|| U.S. 2.80% -6bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 141.36
|| Bund 1.84% -1bp
|| DE: DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6449
|| GILT 2.89% -3bp
|| GB: FTSE:Lower|
| USDJPY 102.71
|| JGB 0.67% +1bp
|| Far East Close Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Employment, US- 10-yr Auction
- Markets are off to a sluggish start today on a slow session for data releases. Key U.K. data today did nothing to shake the view that the U.K. economy continues to grow. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- There has been a lot of fresh chatter about a modest taper next week. There is report by Steve Liesman of CNBC that a Fed taper next week is increasingly likely. We have no direct connection to inside information at the Fed, so we rely on logic and the messages we feel the central bank is sending. We note that the 10-yr last was 2.813% (2.799% low today) well below its pre- employment levels. We see no signs the bond markets are setting up for a taper next week.. We do not feel the Fed will make a major policy move before January 30, but some forward guidance is still possible.
- March 20 is the first meeting with Janet Yellen at the helm. The March meeting is the next time a press conference scheduled. The Yellen final Senate confirmation vote may be on Friday December 20.
- This week sees a number of data releases but we do not expect many of them to be market-moving. The Swiss National Bank and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce their latest policy decisions on Thursday. Australian jobs data are due Wednesday.
- See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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