Wednesday December 11, 2013 - 03:45:16 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 11-Dec-2013 -0344 GMT
Profit Taking in Equities seen globally.
Dow (15973.13, -0.33%) saw some profit taking and is currently trading just near the 21 Day MA. A further rise to 16100-200 is still possible if it manages to stay above 15900. Support at 15900 levels. Nasdaq (4060.49, -0.20%) also saw some profit taking. The channel resistance seems to be holding really well. The target of 4100 is still possible.
Dax (9114.44, -0.88%) has dipped from the 21 Day MA. But it is still trading in the support zone of 9200-100 as seen from our line charts. We may see it rise towards 9200-300 if it manages to bounce from the support zone.
Nikkei (15541.62, -0.45%) dipped a bit. It can still test the target of 16000. Shanghai (2216.59, -0.93%) fell contrary to our expectation of a rise to 2275. It may consolidate between 2200-2250 for now.
Nifty (6332.85, -0.49%) saw some profit taking yesterday. It can dip further to 6200. A break below 6200 will confirm the bearish mode.
Gold (1257.110) traded high on weakened Dollar and signs of increasing physical demand for the metal in China. But it may be difficult to maintain the highs with some bearish pressure coming in. Asiaís demand for the metal is likely to decline. Silver (20.280) has risen and may target near term resistance near 21-21.50.
Copper (3.2620) is rising steadily. There is a trend resistance near current levels which if holds may push it towards 3.20, else we could see a steady rise to 3.30-3.35. Overall the broad sideways movement persists.
Brent (109.29) fluctuated highly yesterday. Currently trading between the 50 and the 100-day MA, we could expect some sideways movement for now.
Nymex WTI (98.41) is trading higher and may test the 200-day Ma resistance near 98.76. There are chances of a rise towards resistance in the 99-100 regions. The Nymex-Brent spread gap has now narrowed tightened a bit.
Dollar has managed to recoup some of its loss from its lows as Euro (1.3752) is showing some hesitation after reaching to the sniffing distance of the old major resistance zone of 1.3850 and Yen (102.80) retreating from the strong supply zone of 103.55-75 once again.
Pound (1.6435) is consolidating a bit after two days of sharp gains but the uptrend remains intact. Aussie (0.9135) remains stable but it must get above 0.9170-0.9210 for sustainable rise towards higher levels. Otherwise the downside risk remains on the cards.
Dollar yen is trading in the range of 102.50-103.50 in line with our expectation but the bulls will be kept under check until the supply zone of 103.50-75 is overcome soon. Though Euro-Yen (141.36), despite a bout of profit taking, remains in a strong uptrend and keeps the Yen under immense pressure.
Dollar Rupee (61.04) may open flat near 61.-61.05 today. The trend remains down as long as it stays below 61.80. But much before that the bulls have to take it above 61.25 and 61.40 to make their case. A failure on their part could take it to 60.50 by next week in a grinding fashion.
The US 10Yr (2.81%) dipped a bit on speculation that the US budget agreement will make it easier for the Federal Reserve to cut its bond purchases.
The German 10Yr (1.83%) remained stable. The resistance is holding well for the German-US 2 Yr Spread (-0.08%) and the 10 Yr Spread (-0.97%) has risen. The Japanese 10Yr (0.66%) is up and we expect it to rise further. The US-Japan 10 Yr Spread (2.14%) has fallen corresponding to the strength of the Yen against the Dollar.
The Indian 10Yr (8.83%) dipped. We see it moving sideways in the range of 8.80%-8.90% for the next few days.
No major data release today.
UK Trade Balance
...Expected -9.35 £ (Bln) ...Previous -10.10 £ (Bln) ...Actual -9.73 £ (Bln)
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."