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Wednesday December 11, 2013 - 11:33:27 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Peripheral bond yields continue to drift lower EU Market Update: Peripheral bond yields continue to drift lower
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 5:15 AM EST

- US Rep Ryan and Senator Murray reach 2-year budget agreement that would reduce the deficit without raising taxes and avoid a govt shutdown in January
- Volcker rule was approved by all 5 US regulators
- EU confirmed no deal was reached on SRM at the EcoFin meeting in Brussels on Wed, Dec 10th but Finance Ministers did reach a political understanding on SRM
- Peripheral bond yields continue to drift lower; Spain 2-year and 5-year govt yield at multi-year lows

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Nov Trade Balance: -$9.2B v -$10.6B prior; Imports Y/Y: -16.4% v -14.5% prior; Exports Y/Y: +5.9 v +13.5% prior

- (FR) France Q3 Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (DE) Germany Nov Final CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: % v 1.3%e
- (DE) Germany Nov Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.2%e; Y/Y: % v 1.6%e
- (FR) France Oct Current Account Balance: -2.1B v -3.6B prior
- (TR) Turkey Oct Current Account Balance: -$2.9B v -$3.0Be
- (HU) Hungary Nov CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (ZA) South Africa Nov CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa Nov CPI Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.4%e
- (CN) China Nov New Yuan Loans (CNY): 624.6B v 580.0Be
- (CN) China Nov M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 14.2% v 14.2%e;
M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.4% v 9.1%e; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.7% v 8.0%e
- (CN) China Nov Aggregate Financing (CNY): No est v 856.4B prior
- (EU) ECB 256M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 170M prior; 54.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 52.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) Ileft its: Current 7-day Lending Rate at 6.00%, as expected
- (GR) Greece Sept Unemployment Rate: 27.4% v 27.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (RU) Russia sold RUB10B vs. RUB10B indicated 2023 OFZ Bonds; Yield: 7.77% v guidance of 7.79-7.84%
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-mnth Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at 0.59% vs. $0.0M prior (13th straight week without an allotment)
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B in 2023 Bonds; Yield: 2.3338% v 2.2476% prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 5.5B vs. 5.5B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.707% v 0.688% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.63x v 1.8x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%,
FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6529, DAX +0.2% at 9129, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4116, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 9471, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 18,206, SMI +0.2% at 7990, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1802]

- Market Focal Points: European equities trade mixed follow negative leads from Asia as dealers assess impact of US budget deal on Fed policy, Moncler IPO expected to price at top end of range, Chipmaker Imagination Technologies sinks on outlook, Banks trade mixed

By Sector
- Financials
[Mediolanum MED.IT -5% (share placement), RBS RBS.UK -1.5% (resignation of CFO)]
- Consumer Discretionary [First Group FGP.UK +2.5% (proposal from activist shareholder), Inditex ITX.ES flat (in line 9-month results)]
- Technology [Imagination Technologies IMG.UK -16% (cautious outlook); Alcatel-Lucent ALU.FR +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Bilfinger Berger GBF.DE -1% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +0.7%, Industrials +0.5%, Basic Materials +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.4%, Technology +0.3%, Energy +0.3%; Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Financials -0.2%, Utilities -0.2%]

- Italy PM Letta addressed the Lower House ahead of confidence vote noting that his main objective for the next 18 months was institutional reform.
He also sought to reduce the number of lawmakers and push for single chamber parliament system. He saw conditions for new government agreement for 2014. Italy to continue to reduce debt and deficit and targeted 2014 GDP growth at 1.0% and 2% GDP growth in 2015.
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria) presented Austria Financial Stability Report which described that banking system as stable with the exception of a few known problematic cases. Forex loans still posed2e significant risk for Austrian households and bank
- Finland PM Katainen: EU bank union development is very good
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci reiterated view to maintain a cautious monetary stance until inflation is in line with medium term targets
- Ukraine PM Azarov stated that he sought 20B in financing from EU
- International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report raised its 2013 and 2014 Oil Demand forecast by 130K and 240K bpd respectively. Iran's oil exports rebounded but challenges abound. Iran would not flood the markets even if sanctions were lifted. Saudi Nov Oil Production at 9.75M bps, unchanged m/m while Non-OPEC Nov crude production was the highest in decades

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The JPY was firmer in the session and seemed aided by the prospect of Fed tapering
- The EUR/USD remained steady and within striking distance of fresh 2013 highs after German Nov final CPI reading eased concerns on potential deflation in Europe in the near future.
- Periphery yields continued to hit multi-year lows. Spain 5-year govt bond yield moved below 2.54% (lowest level since Sept 2005) whilst its 2-year govt yield hit 1.27% (lowest since July 2009)

Political/In the Papers:
-(CN) Asian Development Bank (ADB): Raises China 2013 target to 7.7% from 7.6% prior; Raises 2014 GDP target to 7.5% from 7.4% prior
- (CN) China should terminate proactive fiscal polic
- API Weekly Crude Inventories registers its end consecutive draw

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EBA Board of Supervisors Meeting
- (PL) Poland Senate, Upper Chamber votes on Pension Revamp
- (IT) Italy Govt Confidence vote in Parliament
- (GR) Troika officials to return to Athens for technical discussions
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in 0% 2015 Schatz
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to Buy-Back Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) speaks in Frankfurt
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov CPI M/M: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.0%e v -0.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Retail Sales Constant M/M: +0.1%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 0.2% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Dec 6th: No est v -12.8% prior
- 07:00 Russia to sell 2019 OFZ Bonds; Yield guidance seen between 7.29-7.34%
- 07:00 (UK)PM Cameron question yime in House of Commons
- 07:00 (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Rajan
- 08:00 (UK) BOE's Weale in London
- 08:00 (PT) Portugal Dep PM Portas in Lisbon
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Lew testifies about IMF
- 10:30 (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) Chief Economist speaks in Zaragoza
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21.0B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 13:30 (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) Dep Gov Rostoy speaks in Madrid
- 14:00 (US) Nov Monthly Budget Statement: -$142.0Be v -$167.0B prior
- 15:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 15:00 (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Statement
- 19:00 (AU) Australia Dec Consumer Inflation Expectation: No est v 1.9% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Nov Employment Change: +10.0Ke v +1.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.7% prior
- 20:00 (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50%




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