Thursday December 12, 2013 - 03:44:43 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 12-Dec-2013 -0343 GMT
Equities are down globally.
Dow (15843.53, -0.81%) fell for a second day amid speculation that the Federal Reserve could trim stimulus in the FOMC Meeting next week. It is trading at the support zone of 15800-900 and it can bounce from here if it manages to stay above 15800. Nasdaq (4003.81, -1.40%) fell to the 4000 levels and can target 3950-900 if it falls below 4000.
Dax (9077.11, -0.41%) has dipped and fallen below the support zone of 9200-100. It can now target 9000-8900 from here.
Nikkei (15289.25, -1.46%) has fallen for a third day and we may now see it targeting 15000. Shanghai (2202.22, -0.09%) is trading in the support zone of 2200-175 and may be ranged between 2225-2175 before rising to 2250.
Nifty (6307.90, -0.39%) dipped yesterday and can see a further fall towards 6250. It can still rally to 6400 where it faces a strong resistance and can come off from there.
Gold (1254.05) is testing the 21-day Ma support near current levels. We may see a movement in the 1240-1270 range for sometime now. Silver (20.288) has dipped a bit but remains in the recent uptrend. It may test support near 19.97.
Copper (3.2860) is on a steady up move targeting resistance near 3.35-3.40. Overall maintaining the near term uptrend.
Brent (109.510) is highly fluctuating and is unable to sustain current levels. Currently testing the 200-day Ma we may see a ranged pattern unable to decide its further move.
Nymex WTI (97.410) is well held between the 50 and the 200-day MA. We could see some CURRENCIES
Euro (1.37941) is trading higher and continues to strengthen against the Dollar. If the resistance in the 1.380-1.385 resistance zone holds we could see a fall towards 1.36 but if the resistance breaks we could see sharp up moves.
Dollar Index (79.875) continues to weaken with near term support coming up at 79.71-79.72.
Dollar Yen (102.57) has dipped but has bounced a bit from the 13-day Ma. If this holds we could see a slight upward correction. But with the Dollar weak we may expect a break in the support.
Pound (1.63670) has also dipped further and is testing 13-day Ma support at 1.6352. It is in an overall uptrend while above 1.628.
Aussie (0.90260) is testing support at 0.90169 after coming off from the resistance at 0.9088. It may show some consolidation now as the downside risk still prevails. It needs to rise past 0.9170-0.9210 to ensure a sustainable rise.
Dollar Rupee (61.2450) remains in the near term down trend while below 61.80. It may open flat today and may expect support from some of the R-currencies.We may expect a dip to 60.80-60.75 in the coming days.
The US 10Yr (2.85%) saw a rise. We may expect it to be ranged between 2.80%-3.00% till the FOMC Meeting next week.
The German 10Yr (1.81%) dipped a bit. The German-US 2 Yr Spread (-0.09%) and the 10 Yr Spread (-1.02%) are falling with the increasing strength in the Euro against the Dollar. The Japanese 10Yr (0.65%) is stable and may continue to be ranged between 0.60%-0.70%. The US-Japan 10 Yr Spread (2.20%) has risen.
The Indian 10Yr (8.82%) is stable and may remain so before the IIP and CPI come out at the end of the day.
0:30 GMT or 6:00 IST Australia Labour Force
...Expected 10.30 K ...Previous -0.7 K ...Actual 21.0 K
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST SNB Meeting
...Expected < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous -0.50 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.20 %
12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN IIP
...Previous - 0.6 %
12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN CPI (YoY )
...Previous - 10.1 %
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Retail Sales
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.20 %
IN Trade bal
...Previous - -10.56 $ Bln ...Actual -9.22 $ Bln
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