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Thursday December 12, 2013 - 16:57:40 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Tepid Sentiment Dictates Sideways Trading

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Tepid Sentiment Dictates Sideways Trading
Thu, 12 Dec 2013 11:37 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Nov CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.1% prior
- (IE) Ireland Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.3% v -0.1% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Dec 6th: $511.2B v $514.9B prior
- (BR) Brazil Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 5.8%e; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: % v 2.3%e
- (G20) OECD G20 Q3 GDP: 0.9% v 0.8% prior
- (IN) India Nov CPI Y/Y: 11.2% v 10.0%e
- (IN) India Nov Industrial Production Y/Y:-1.8% v -1.2%e; Manufacturing Production: No est v +0.6% prior
- (RU) Russia Oct Trade Balance: $13.2B v $14.2Be
- (US) Nov Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.5% v 0.3%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 368K v 320Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.79M v 2.74Me
- (US) Nov Import Price Index M/M: -0.6% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -1.5 v -1.7%e
- (CA) Canada Q3 Capacity Utilization Rate: 81.7% v 81.0%e
- (CA) Canada Oct New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (MX) Mexico Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.2%e; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 3.5% v 2.3%e
- (CA) Canada Nov Teranet/National Bank House Price Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.3%e; HPI Index: 159.21 v 159.34 prior
- (US) Oct Business Inventories: 0.7% v 0.3%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -81 bcf vs. -84 to -88 bcf expected range

- US indices are underperforming this morning and markets are seeing stronger-than-average trading volumes. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.51%, the S&P500 is down 0.11% and the Nasdaq is up 0.02%.

- Retail sales rose 0.7% in November, topping the 0.6% gain in October. The weekly jobless claims data is attracting some attention this morning, as the initial claims rose by the largest amount in a year, putting the series back at levels seen in early October. Analysts explain that the data reflect seasonal adjustments around the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. US import prices fell for a second straight month in November, thanks to lower oil and food prices.

- In FX trading, the AUD/USD finally busted below the 0.90 level after RBA Gov Stevens commented that seeing the pair near 0.85 was desirable.

- Hot Facebook property Instagram released a new private image sharing and text feature this morning. The new features let users restrict who can see images, helping address both competitive pressures and privacy concerns. FB is up nearly 4% this morning.

- Shares of Lululemon are down more than 10% this morning. The firm's third quarter results were better than expected and saw solid y/y growth, however Lulu also trimmed its FY13 guidance and offered a weak Q4 view. Analysts fastened on the flat SSS guidance for Q4, which suggests the retailer is having a slow holiday shopping season (after an average +7% comp for the first three quarters of the year). In other retail news, shares of Men's Warehouse are up 2% on a positive Q3 earnings report.

- In a sign of the continuing breakdown in gold markets, IAMGOLD suspended the payment of dividends until further notice in order to "preserve its balance sheet." In as many words, executives argued that the current price of gold was simply too low for a dividend. Shares of IAG are down more than 7%.

- ITT successor firm Exelis announced plans to spin off a new publicly traded military and government services company. Exelis Mission Systems will include the firm's military and government services units and will have approximately $1.5 billion in revenue. According to executives, the new firm will permit a greater degree of flexibility to allocate capital. Shares of XLS are up 8%

- Yesterday, the FDA approved more than a half-dozen generic versions of Cymbalta, the antidepressant that's now Lilly's top-selling drug, accounting for $5B a year in revenue. Cymbalta has stepped up over the past couple of years to help Lilly weather the loss of patent protection on its atypical antipsychotic drug Zyprexa. Lilly has been prepared for this moment with various restructuring and guidance measures, and shares of LLY are only down about 1.7%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (ES) EU President Van Rompuy with PM Rajoy
- 12:50 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz speaks at Canadian Club
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 4.50%
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Reference Rate unchanged at 4.00%
- 23:30 (JP) Japan Oct Final Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.5% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 4.7% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: No est v 1.2% prelim

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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