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Sunday December 15, 2013 - 13:45:08 GMT
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Major Fed meeting Wednesday Calendar active this week
|Major Fed meeting Wednesday Calendar active this week |
16 December 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Far East: CN- HSBC flash PMI, JA- Tankan Survey. Europe: EZ/DE/FR- Flash PMI North America: US- Empire PMI, Productivity, TIC Flows, Industrial Production
| EURUSD 1.3748
|| U.S. 2.87% 0bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 141.60
|| Bund 1.83% -2bp
|| DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6280
|| GILT 2.90% 0bp
|| FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 103.10
|| JGB 0.69% +3bp
|| Far East Close: Higher|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- HSBC flash PMI, JA- Tankan Survey, EZ/DE/FR- Flash PMIs, US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production
- Markets spent the better part of the week just ended setting up for the Fed policy decision on Wednesday (December 18). The media is obsessed with the timing of the Fed taper decision. We all know that the central bank would like to exit from its $85 bln/mo purchase of government and mortgage backed debt. Their concern is how to do it quickly once they judge the economy is in a self-sustaining recovery.
- Everyone knows the Fed wants out, the only question is timing. As for timing, the vast majority of observers feel the Fed will start to "taper" their asset purchases by mid-March at the latest. The surprise would be if they do not. We do not expect the Fed to announce a tapering on Wednesday, but feel it would be logical to assume that they will provide forward guidance that a tapering is coming.
- As for Fed leadership succession, a Senate confirmation vote on Janet Yellen is scheduled for Friday, December 20. This is after the Fed meeting. We have heard that Chairman Bernanke feels it is a bad idea for the central bank to have Chairman and a Chairman-elect at the same time, reportedly he might step down early once Yellen has been confirmed. So it is possible that there could be a new Fed Chair before the end of the year. Everyone assumes there will be continuity of current policies under the new regime.
- This week also saw word that Irving Fischer, former head of the Israeli Central bank and renowned MIT economist, will be taking Yellen's former post as Fed Vice-Chairman. Fed management is shaping up to be a "dream team".
- The week ahead looks like a "data dump" before the year-end holiday period. It starts off with the Japanese quarterly Tankan Survey and a number of flash PMI release. We will also see the key German ZEW and IFO Surveys and inflation data from a number of economies and a slew of other releases. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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