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Monday December 16, 2013 - 10:02:31 GMT
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Fed meeting Wednesday. Active data calendar week
|Fed meeting Wednesday. Active data calendar week |
16 December 2013 10:00 gmt
CALENDAR: North America: US- Empire PMI, Productivity, TIC Flows, Industrial Production
| EURUSD 1.3769
|| U.S. 2.85% -2bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 141.78
|| Bund 1.84% +1bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6321
|| GILT 2.90% 0bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 102.98
|| JGB 0.69% 0bp
|| Far East Close: Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production
- Overnight the Japanese quarterly Tankan Survey improved generally in line with estimates. The China's HSBC flash PMI fell modestly. In the Eurozone, flash PMI data generally were mixed to disappointing with Service PMI data weaker.
- Wednesday (December 18). sees the Fed taper decision. The central bank would like to exit from its $85 bln/mo purchase of government and mortgage backed debt. the Fed wants out, the only question is timing. We do not expect the Fed to announce a tapering Wednesday, but feel it would be logical to assume that they will provide forward guidance that a tapering is coming.
- As for Fed leadership succession, a Senate confirmation vote on Janet Yellen is scheduled for Friday, December 20. This is after the Fed meeting. We have heard that Chairman Bernanke feels it is a bad idea for the central bank to have Chairman and a Chairman-elect at the same time, reportedly he might step down early once Yellen has been confirmed. So it is possible that there could be a new Fed Chair before the end of the year. Everyone assumes there will be continuity of current policies under the new regime.
- This week looks like a "data dump" before the year-end holiday period. We will see the key German ZEW and IFO Surveys and inflation data from a number of economies and a slew of other releases. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
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