Tuesday December 17, 2013 - 03:29:16 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 17-Dec-2013 -0328 GMT
Most of the indices are showing signs of weakness and chances of further fall in the next few weeks are strong. Any rallies are expected to face selling pressure now.
Dow (15884.57, +0.82%) bulls managed to hold on to the 15650-700 support zone mentioned before on the back of upbeat manufacturing dataand the index shot up once again in line with our expectation. Now it must stay above 16000-50 to confirm the end of the correction, otherwise the possibility of another fall remains.
Dax (9163.56, +1.74%) rallied hard from the support area of 8920-50 and reached close to the supply zone of 9225-55. If weakness is to emerge again, it could come from this area.
Nikkei (15299.48, +0.97%) looks uncannily similar to Dow when it is noted that both the indices have been pushed back from 13 year old resistances. Currently it is rangebound between 15100 and 15650. Only beyond this range a meaningful move may materialize.
Shanghai (2149.97, -0.46%) has not managed to find even a pause in its downtrend after the false breakout above 2250 levels. The panic long liquidation has been extending the fall and unless 2205 is taken out, the bears will continue to dominate.
Nifty (6154.70, -0.22%) shows the sign of an intermediate top already at place and hence, every rally is expected to be sold till 6230-6300 levels. A break below the support of 6130 will keep the bearish momentum intact. It may open in the positive on the back of global cues today but in a confirmed downtrend, these rallies are taken as the opportunities for fresh shorting. We will keep watching the price action near 6230-50 if Nifty manages to reach that far. RBI Credit Policy tomorrow may set the next course of main trend.
Gold (1241.55) has risen breaking the 13-day MA but that does not negate a fall towads 1225-1220. We may expect a movement within 1225-1260 in the near term. Only a break above 1260 could signal a fresh rise. Silver (19.916) saw a high at the trend resistance near 20.03 yesterday and is trading lower today. A break below 19.3 on the downside or 20.5 on the upside would indicate its further move. Else we could see a steady fall within the 19.3-20.5 range.
Copper (3.3190) has risen further targeting resistance near 3.35-3.40. If this holds, we could see a fall towards 3.20.
Brent (109.20) fluctuated highly yesterday but came off from the trend resistance near 110.4 to close near the 50-day MA at 108.32. This push by the resistance may indicate some bearishness but we need to wait and watch for further confirmation.
Nymex WTI (97.66) saw a low of 96.22 but bounced back from there closing at 97.77. While the support near 50-day MA holds, we may see a further rise towards 98.70-98.75. However the chances of a fall towards 96 cannot be negated.
The Forex world is holding its breath as it doesn’t if the Fed will taper the QE this week or not and that has been producing random moves. Dollar Index (80.09) has weakened again and it is expected to remain so as long as it stays below 80.50 levels. Downside remains open for a probable move towards 79.50-75.It has already tested a low of 79.90.
Resistance at 1.3825-50 has held well on the Euro (1.3759) but still no weakness is visible as mentioned before. Holding the Friday low of 1.3710, it can well attempt another rise to 1.3825-50. It has already tested 1.38.
Dollar-Yen (103.04) breached 102.80 but didn’t sustain below it. Currently it is testing a trendline support in the daily timeframe which has come to 102.65 for now. The possibility of rising again remains as long as this trendline holds. Selling pressure could come from 103.75-104.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.82) took perfect support at 141.20, the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 169.92 (Jul-08) to 94.10 (Jul-12) mentioned before and could rise further with Support at 141.20 now. Any sign of weakness will come only below 141.20-140.90.
The Pound (1.6312) has dipped but in a grinding manner to test the major long term support of 1.62-1.63. Keep an eye here for follow up buying to materialize and shorts in this zone could be risky. The major uptrend will be threatened only below 1.62.
The Aussie (0.8941) is consolidating inside the narrow Friday range of 0.8909-0.8970. Below 0.90-0.9030, the strong bearish momentum will remain intact and Aussie will remain open to more downside. Bulls would hope for the zone of 0.8880-0.8910 to hold as the target implication of the bearish pattern got fulfilled there.
Dollar Rupee (61.73) could not manage to break above the resistance of 62.25 mentioned in the Morning Brief yesterday and hence, fell to 61.73. Till now, it is to taken as a normal correction after a weeklong rally. The bulls would be concerned only on a sustained move below 61.35. Supports are at 61.50-65 and 61.35-45. Strength will return above 62.05-10.
The US 10Yr (2.87%) has risen a bit before the start of the 2 Day FOMC Meeting. With the fear of taper in the air we may see the yields go up to 3.00%-3.20% if the resistance at 2.95% breaks.
The Japan 10Yr (0.68%) has come up a bit. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.18%) has started to move sideways in the range of 2.10%-2.20%. We can expect a sharp movement after the FOMC Meeting. The German 10Yr (1.83%) remained unchanged. The German – US 10Yr differential (-1.04%) has bounced from the support near -1.06% and can now go up to -1.00%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.86%) fell as the Rupee strengthened a bit against the Dollar even with a high WPI data which came in at 7.2%. The range of 8.85%-9.50% is expected to remain till the RBI Meeting tomorrow.
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 2.20 % ...Previous 2.20 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous 0.74 %
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Current Account Balance
...Expected -101 $ Bln ...Previous -99 $ Bln
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.10 % ...Previous 0.12 %
JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
...Expected 15 ...Previous 12 ...Actual 16
...Actual 7.52 %...Previous 7.00 %
EU Trade Bal
...Expected 15.20 EUR Bln ...Previous 12.40 EUR Bln ...Actual 14.50 EUR Bln
US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected 31.40 $ Bln ...Previous 31.28 $ Bln ... Actual 35.44 $ Bln
US Industrial Production
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 0.1 % ...Actual 1.1 %
US Capacity Utilization
...Expected 78.50 % ...Previous 78.10 % ... Actual 79.0 %
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