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Tuesday December 17, 2013 - 16:46:44 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Participants Hold Their Breath as FOMC Gathers

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Participants Hold Their Breath as FOMC Gathers
Tue, 17 Dec 2013 11:24 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Dec CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: 12 v 11e; Trends Selling Prices: 11 v 5e
- (RU) Russia Nov PPI M/M: -1.5% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 3.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Central Bank left its Repurchase Rate unchanged at 0.05% and maintain FX Intervention; both as expected
- (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) left all Key Rates unchanged (as expected)
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Dec 14th: w/w +4.8%; y/y: +2.0%
- (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) cut Base Rate by 20bps to 3.00%, as expected
- (PL) Poland Nov Average Gross Wages M/M: 1.7% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.9%e
- (PL) Poland Nov Employment M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.0%e
- (US) Nov CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (US) Nov CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (US) Nov CPI NSA: 233.069 v 233.130e; CPI Core: 235.240 v 235.179e
- (US) Nov Q3 Current Account Balance: -$94.8B v -$100.2Be
- (CA) Canada Oct Manufacturing Sales M/M: +1.0% v -0.3%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Dec 14th: +2.9% y/y, Dec MTD: -1.4% m/m; Dec MTD +2.8% y/y
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 206.9B v 207.1B prior
- (US) Dec NAHB Housing Market Index: 58 v 55e

- Both European and US equity markets are in the red this morning, despite pretty solid European data, including a good Germany December ZEW survey and the excellent December NAHB numbers. Investors are positioning themselves very conservatively heading into Wednesday's FOMC meeting, while the yield on the US 10-year continues to hover around 2.86%. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.21%, the S&P500 is down 0.43% and the Nasdaq is down 0.34%.

- Another month of very tame inflation in November adds one more data point into the pot for analysts gaming out the taper. US November CPI gained a bit from the four-year low seen in October, but remains as mild as its been for months, helped along by lower energy prices.

- The December NAHB housing market confidence index rose to back to levels seen in September, just shy of the eight-year highs seen in the August report. Analysts suggest the temporary swoon in the US housing market seen around the government shutdown has passed through, setting up for a very strong market in 2014. Homebuilder stocks are not benefitting, however, with most down one or two percent with the broader equity markets.

- Factset Research is down nearly 5% this morning after missing expectations in its first quarter report and its second quarter guidance. This decline comes despite good y/y growth in its Q1 metrics and the launch of a new $300M expansion of the firm's stock buyback plan.

- KKR has agreed to buy its flagging publicly-traded credit business KKR Financial Holdings LLC in a $2.6 billion all-stock deal. Holders get 0.51 KKR shares for each share of KKR Financial, valuing the public fund at $12.79 a share. Shares of KKR Financial have tanked this year and the CEO resigned back in July.

- Frontier Communications signed a substantial deal to acquire AT&T's residential, commercial and wholesale wireline business in Connecticut for $2B. Frontier will also acquire AT&Ts U-verse video and satellite TV customers in Connecticut. Shares of FTR are up 8%, but well off their highs.

- Numerous firms have been out over recent days offering initial guidance for FY14. This morning shares of LRY, MMM and PNR are up about 2% after offering robust guidance. On the flipside, TFX and MGLN have offered more problematic guidance. TFX is down 2% while MGLN is down around 4.5%. HON's FY14 guidance ranges were not great, but HON is down less than 1%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 2-Year Notes
- 13:30 (EU) Euro Area Finance Ministers (Eurogroup) meet in Brussels
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:30 (AU) RBA gov Stevens testifies
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov Trade Balance: -1.351Te v -1.091T prior; Trade Balance Adjusted: -1.198Te v -1.0725T

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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