Wednesday December 18, 2013 - 03:28:57 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 18-Dec-2013 -0328 GMT
Dow (15875.26, -0.06%) bulls managed to hold on to the 15650-700 support zone mentioned before and spent the session quietly waiting for the Fed announcement. Now it must break and stay above 16000-50 to confirm the end of the correction, otherwise the possibility of another fall remains.
Dax (9085.12, -0.86%) corrected from the supply zone of 9225-55, exactly in line with our expectation mentioned on yesterday’s report. Today the bulls must hold on to 9085 to hope for rise again or else the fall may get deeper.
Nikkei (15524, +1.61%) looks uncannily similar to Dow when it is noted that both the indices have been pushed back from 13 year old resistances. Currently it is rangebound between 15100 and 15650 and close to the upper end now. Only beyond this range a meaningful move may materialize.
Shanghai (2152.55, -0.07%) has not managed to find even a pause in its downtrend after the false breakout above 2250 levels. The panic long liquidation has been extending the fall and unless 2205 is taken out, the bears will continue to dominate.
Nifty (6139.05, -0.25%) shows the sign of an intermediate top already at place and hence, every rally is expected to be sold till 6230-6300 levels. A break below the support zone of 6090-6125, the previous tops, will keep the bearish momentum intact. It may open in the positive on the back of global cues today but in a confirmed downtrend, these rallies are taken as the opportunities for fresh shorting. We will keep watching the price action near 6230-50 if Nifty manages to reach that far. RBI Credit Policy today may set the next course of main trend. Keep an eye on the resistance area of 6190-6200, where the last few attempts to rally failed.
Gold (1233.403) is moving in a sideways range. Near term bearishness prevails while below 1250.
Silver (19.915) . The resistance at 20.483 is holding well since the last week and while that holds we could expect near term bearishness.
Copper (3.31) has come off after registering a high of 3.3355 yesterday. If this resistance holds well we could see a fall towards 3.25.
Brent (108.53) has fallen further and is in a near term down trend. Support coming up at 108 which if holds may pull it back towards 109. But a break below 108 could push it to 106.81.
Nymex WTI (97.67) rose before the FED decides whether to cut stimulus. After bouncing up from support near 96.143, we could see some movement in the 96-98.2 regions. A break below 96 could see a fall to 95.37.
The Forex world is holding its breath over the question of if the Fed will taper the QE this week or not and that has been producing random moves. Most of the major currencies including Dollar Index and Euro are actually creating a lot of noise in a narrow band which has no real significance. So our outlook remains mostly unchanged.
Dollar Index (80.05) has weakened again after another attempt to rally till 80.25 and it is expected to remain weak as long as it stays below 80.50 levels. Downside remains open for a probable move towards 79.50-75.
Resistance at 1.3825-50 has held well on the Euro (1.3759) but still no weakness is visible as mentioned before. Holding the Friday low of 1.3710, it can well attempt another rise to 1.3825-50.
Dollar-Yen (103) has broken the trendline support but came up again to confirm a sideways move in a broad range of 101.50-104. So the proper action here would be to trade the range by buying at the lower end and selling at the higher end till Yen breaks out of this range to give us a directional move.
The Euro-Yen Cross (141.85) tested our support zone of 141.20-140.90 once again and came up. In the same manner of Dollar Yen, it has confirmed a sideways range too, between 140.90 and 142.90. Initial sign of strength will come above 142.20.
The Pound (1.6284) has been testing the major long term support area of 1.62-1.63 in a grinding manner. Keep an eye here for follow up buying to materialize and shorts in this zone could be risky. The major uptrend will be threatened only below 1.62. We can already see some bulls appearing near 1.62 but to assert their real strength, they must take Pound above 1.6360.
The Aussie (0.8916) fully tested the support zone of 0.8880 mentioned yesterday. Below 0.90-0.9030, the strong bearish momentum will remain intact and Aussie will remain open to more downside. Bulls would hope for the zone of 0.8880-0.8910 to hold as the target implication of the bearish pattern got fulfilled there.
Dollar Rupee (62.01) may open in the red today near 61.75-80 today on the back of continued Dollar weakness against other currencies. We would keep an eye on the lower end of the range at 61.50-65 to check if any buying materializes there. Above 62.25, we would be fully bullish for higher targets near 62.75 and 63.14. Bulls would be concerned only below 61.35. We may not get the actual directional move till the RBI Policy gets announced at 11 am today and even then, the currencies may wait for Fed announcement to make their real move.
In the worst case for Dollar Rupee, we can’t see anything lower than 59.50-80 in the near term. The upside remains open to 64-65. What would be the actual direction is something that would be determined by these two central banks – RBI and Fed.
The markets are eagerly waiting for the conclusion of the FOMC Meeting today. The taper, if it happens, will have a huge impact on the Bond market. We need to wait and watch. The US 10Yr (2.84%) fell. With the increased chances of a taper we need to wait and watch how the markets react.
The Japan 10Yr (0.65%) fell as the Yen weakened against the Dollar before the conclusion of the FOMC Meeting. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.189%) has remained stable. The German 10Yr (1.82%) also remained stable. The German – US 10Yr differential (-1.01%) has come near to our target of -1.00%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.91%) saw a rise before the RBI Policy meeting today. The high CPI and WPI and the negative IIP will put pressure on the RBI to increase the interest rates. It is expected that the Repo rate will be increased to counter the high inflation.
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Repo Rate
...Previous - 7.75 %
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Previous - 6.75 %
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI CRR
...Previous - 4.00 %
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI MSF
...Previous - 8.75 %
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 109.70 ...Previous 109.30
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Situations
...Previous - 112.20
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST GER IFO Business Expectations
...Previous - 106.30
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK Unemp
...Expected 7.60 % ...Previous 7.60 %
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 2.20 % ...Previous 2.20 % ...Actual 2.10%
EU CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous 0.74 % ...Actual 0.85%
US Current Account Balance
...Expected -101 $ Bln ...Previous -96.60 $ Bln ...Actual 94.80 $BLN
US Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.10 % ...Previous 0.12 % ...Actual 0.16%
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."