Friday December 20, 2013 - 03:58:56 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 20-Dec-2013 -0358 GMT
Dow (16179.08, +0.07%) spent the session consolidating in a very narrow range after the big rally on Wednesday.16700-800 is the next possible target zone if it manages to sustain above the 13 year old resistance line of 16200.
Dax (9335.74, +1.68%) broke above our resistance zone of 9225-55 and asserted the bullishness strongly. If it can manage to end this week above 6225, the weekly candle will signal a move to a new high near 9700. Weakness will come only below 9190.
Nikkei (15755.36, -0.65%) looks uncannily similar to Dow when it is noted that both the indices have been pushed back from 13 year old resistances. Going above 15650, it is facing the strongest resistance now, the 13 & 18 year old supply zone of 16000-100 above which a multi-month bull market will be signaled.
Shanghai (2114.05, -0.65%) is fast moving towards 2080 levels. It has not managed to find even a pause in its downtrend after the false breakout above 2250 levels. Unless 2165-75 is taken out, the bears will continue to dominate.
Nifty (6166.65, -0.81%) came down sharply from 6263, just a bit off our target level of 6275, and closed near the day low to create a Dark Cloud Cover candle yesterday, a bearish reversal pattern. A break of 6120-30 is very probable now, which would open the doors to sub-6000 levels. Any rally now would face selling pressure from the resistance area of 6220-30.
Gold (1195.5) has fallen sharply breaking below 1200. This could lead to a further fall towards crucial support near 1180-1175 which if holds coul bounce back to 1200. Only a break below 1175 could confirm further fall.
Silver (19.26) is trading lower in line with expectation. Bearishness is still on the cards and we may wee expect a fall to 19.2-18.5.
Copper (3.3030) has fallen sharply. It may target 3.25 in the near term but there are also chances that it may rise above 3.35.The crucial resistance zone of 3.35-3.40 just above the trend resistance still prevails.
Brent (109.98) rose sharply yesterday giving us a bullish signal. It is currently trading in the 109.8-110.2 region which if breaks may target 112-112.5 on the upside.
Nymex WTI (98.74) has risen sharply and is in a steady near term uptrend. We could see a rise towards 98.8-98.9-99.0 in the coming days. The gap between the Nymex and Brent spread may narrow steadily as Crude supplies from Middle East may expand.
The Dollar has strengthened against all the currencies after the Fed announced that it was going to cut its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities from $85 billion in December to nothing by the end of next year in a series of small steps, starting with a reduction to $75 billion in January.
Dollar Index (80.71) held nicely above 80.45-50 and shot further up. Above the next supply zone of 80.80-95, it may reach 81.50 and more. Support remains at 80.45-50.
Resistance at 1.3825-50 has held well for the Euro (1.3660) and brought it crashing down after the Fed statement. It must hold on to the support level of 1.36, otherwise it may drop to 1.3525. Resistance comes at 1.37-1.3710 now.
Dollar-Yen (104.34) is trading above the range of 101.50-104 and making new 5-year highs. A weekly close above 104 will signal a rise towards 105.50 and even 109 in the next few weeks. Any weakness will emerge only below 102.50.
The Euro-Yen Cross (142.36) remained stuck in the range of 140.90-142.90. It must break beyond this range to get a directional move and participants should keep in a wait and watch mode till then.
The Pound (1.6365) got tremendous buying pressure from the 1.62-1.63 area exactly in line with our expectation and hit a new 2 year high at 1.6484. As long as it stays above 1.62, a lot more rally remains to be seen. Next hurdle comes at 1.6740-50 on the upside.
The Aussie (0.8878) extended its loss to make a new 3 year low. In a case like this it would be better not to search for any supports or targets and concentrate on the resistance levels like 0.8870 and 0.8915. Above 0.8915, it may try to reach the next major supply zone of 0.8975-0.90.
Dollar Rupee (62.14) remains in the bullish orbit despite the correction and may open near 62.30-35 on the back of a strong Dollar Index. If Dollar manages to hold on to 62-62.05 in the opening hour and manage to move above 62.25, the strength will return again. We have our bullish stance unchanged as long as Dollar remains above 61.73-77. Only below 61.73, we may reconsider our stand.
The US 10Yr (2.92%) is up moving towards 3.00%. With a resistance coming in near 2.95% we may see it stabalise for a while below 3.00%. The 5Yr (1.64%) has moved up sharply while the 30Yr (3.90%) has remained stable.
The German 10Yr (1.87%) saw a rise and is coming up to a resistance near 1.95%. The German – US 10Yr differential (-1.07%) is down slightly as per our expectations. The German – US 2Yr spread (-0.14%) has also come down can fall towards -0.20%. But on the other hand the US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.24%) continues to rise and can go up to 2.65%-2.70%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.74%) fell. But a further fall from here looks difficult. We can expect it to remain in a range of 8.75%-9.00%.
0:05 GMT or 5:35 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -11 ...Previous -12
3:00 GMT or 8:30 IST BOJ Meeting
...Previous - <0.10
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK GDP
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.78 %
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 3.60 % ...Previous 3.60 %
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
...Previous - 0.70 %
US FOMC Meeting
...Expected <0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 % ...Actual < 0.25 %
EU EA (17) Curr Acct Bal
...Previous 14.90 EUR Bln ...Actual 21.80 EUR Bln
US Philifed Index
...Expected 10.00 ...Previous 6.50 ...Actual 7.00
US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 5030 K ...Previous 5120 ...Actual 4900
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."