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Friday December 20, 2013 - 16:33:57 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Third Revision Drives Q3 US GDP to +4.1% US Market Update: Third Revision Drives Q3 US GDP to +4.1%
Fri, 20 Dec 2013 11:11 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ES) Spain Oct Trade Balance: -1.4B v -2.6B prior
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Dec 13th: $295.5B v $295.7B prior
- (US) Q3 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: 4.1% v 3.6%e; Personal Consumption: 2.0% v 1.4%e
- (US) Q3 Final GDP Price Index: 2.0% v 2.0%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.5%e
- (CA) Canada Nov CPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e; Consumer Price Index: 123.0 v 123.0 prior
- (CA) Canada Nov CPI Core M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.3%e
- (CA) Canada Nov CPI Seasonally Adj M/M: +0.2% v -0.1% prior; CPI Core seasonally adj M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior
- (CA) Canada Oct Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.4% v 0.0%e
- (MX) Mexico Nov Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 5.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Advance Consumer Confidence: -13.6 v -15.0e
- (US) Dec Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: -3 v +6e

- The Fed's taper move continues to echo throughout global markets. Eyes are on China, where the PBoC is injecting liquidity to tamp down spiking short term rates. Volumes are unusually high this morning as quarterly rebalancing of the Russell indices and the S&P indices coincides with a quadruple witching day. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.42%, the S&P500 is up 0.49% and the Nasdaq is up 0.78%.

- The third and final reading of US Q3 GDP was +4.1%, revised higher from the second reading of +3.6% published back on Dec 5th. This is the strongest rate of US GDP growth since the final quarter of 2011. Increases in PCE and in nonresidential fixed investment were larger than previously estimated, while a run-up in business inventories contributed 1.7 percentage points to overall growth.

- EUR/USD has risen sharply in the wake of the US GDP data. Overnight the pair was hitting two-week lows around 1.3630, but after the data EUR/USD has jumped back above 1.3700 and pushed through 1.3710. Gold seems to have found resistance around $1,190, and his ticked back above $1,200 this morning. USD/JPY pushed out toward 104.5 before reversing some gains.

- Seven weeks after Ariad Pharmaceuticals was forced to halt US sales of its leukemia drug Iclusig, the FDA has approved sales with a more restrictive label and updated safety information. The medication carries risks of life-threatening blood clots and heart problems, and the new prescription guidelines allows the prescribing physician to choose whether or not the benefits of Iclusig outweigh these risks. Shares of ARIA are up 20%.

- Blackberry is having a good morning despite reporting a $4.4 billion loss and a 56% y/y drop in revenue in its Q3. BlackBerry announced an expanded relationship with Foxconn to manufacture phones, with the firm relying on Foxconn more to jointly develop and manufacture devices, as well as manage the inventory. BBRY is up 16%.

- Among other firms reporting quarterly results, shares of Carmax are down more than 9% despite decent sales numbers and a 12% y/y gain in net profits. Investors seem disappointed the firm missed bottom-line expectations by a penny. Walgreen is up 0.6% or so on solid quarterly numbers. Navistar's revenue dropped more than expected as the firm saw lower sales in all its business segments, and shares of NAV are down 4.6%. RedHat is the big winner, with shares up 20% after it beat top- and bottom-line expectations on a 50% y/y profit growth.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Formal Job Creation: 54.9Ke v 95.0K prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Trade Balance: $663Me v $710M prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 GDP Y/Y: 4.9%e v 8.3% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 Current Account Balance: -$1.2Be v $650M prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.5%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- (PE) Peru Central Bank Quarterly Inflation Report




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