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Tuesday December 24, 2013 - 10:42:12 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK BBA Loans hits 4-year highs; Holiday cheer into year-end

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK BBA Loans hits 4-year highs; Holiday cheer into year-end
Tue, 24 Dec 2013 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-China PBoC injects CNY 29B via reverse repos (1st injection in 3 weeks); Chinese money market rates fall with 7 day repo fix at 5.40% registering its Biggest daily decline since Feb 2011
- Japan Cabinet Dec Economic Report maintained its overall economic assessment with expectations of moderate recovery but dropped word "deflation" for first time since 2009
- Holiday mode kicks in. Trading volume in Europe less than 10% of usual amounts

***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e

- (FR) France Nov Consumer Spending M/M: 1.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.5%0.4%e
- France Q3 Debt/GDP ratio: 92.7% v 93.4% q/q
- (EU) ECB 750M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 341M prior; 50.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 53.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Producer Confidence Index: -0.1 v -0.4 prior
- (NL) Netherlands Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.6%e
- (EU) Nov Euro Coin Indicator: +0.29 v +0.23 prior (4th straight positive reading)
- (UK) Nov BBA Loans for House Purchase: 45.0K v 44.4Ke; highest since Dec 2009

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +01%,
FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6704, CAC-40 +0.3% at 4226, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 9819, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1824, DAX closed, SMI closed, FTSE MIB closed]

- Market Focal Points: Extremely quiet trading session ahead of Christmas holiday with most European equity markets either closed or only open for a half day, Asian equities rise as PBoC cash injection leads to sharp decline in China money market rates, Nikkei225 trades above 16,000 for first time in 6 years

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[British Sky BSY.UK +2% (speculation related to wholesale agreement with BT)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Basic Materials +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.6%, Industrials +0.5%, Financials +0.5%, Technology +0.4%, Telecom +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Utilities +0.2%, Energy +0.2%]

Speakers:
- German Bundesbank said to be bringing back 37 tonnes of Gold to Germany
(**Reminder: On Jan 16th German Bundesbank confirmed plans to bring portions of gold reserves back to Frankfurt, to return to 50% level from 31% by 2020)
- Spain autonomous region of Catalonia to miss 2013 budget deficit target of 1.58%
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci: Monetary policy moving from flexible to predictable and sought to reduce rates volatility to zero. Lira liquidity policy to be increased 'in this meeting' and Prioritizes liquidity policy on inflation before it made any decisions on interest rates. It might make adjustments in interest rates if inflation expectations worsen. Would probably not need to implement additional monetary tightening from Feb. Impossible to control exchange rate by raising interest rates in current environment and saw its current monetary policy sufficient for inflation outlook. Very clear that TRY currency (Lira) was in oversold territory
- Vietnam PM Dung stated that the companies were still facing many difficulties and its macro-economic stability was not sustainable
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Dec Monthly Economic Report maintained its Economic Assessment (as expected). Q1 Industrial Production was expected to broadly increase on the basis of moderate recovery at home and overseas

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- In Europe, the holiday mode kicked into full swing.
The Eurex was closed and London on a half-day saw overall volumes at less than 10% of any typical session.
- China's money market rates tumbled earlier today after PBoC took action and recommencing its first repurchase agreement in three weeks. The absence of the central bank had seen rates spike causing Chinese stock market underperformance

Political/In the Papers:
-(DE) Germany to pay 20B less in interest over the next 3 years - German press; To pay 5B less than originally expected in interest next year, 6B less in 2015 and 8.7B less in 2016.
- (IT) Italy PM Letta won confidence vote in Senate which allowed full passage of 2014 budget
- (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, 2014 voter): Argued for reducing bond purchases by $20B
-(JP) Japan Cabinet approves FY14/15 budget draft with 95.88T in spending (record); To lower FY14/15 bond issuances by 1.6T to 41.3T (2nd straight decrease).

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Dec 20th: No est -5.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov Durable Goods Orders: +2.0%e v -1.6% prior (revised from -2.0%); Durables Ex Transportation: 0.7%e v -0.1% prior; Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft: 0.7%e v -0.6% prior (revised from -1.2%); Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense Ex Aircraft: +1.0%e v -0.1% prior (revised from -0.2); Durables Goods Orders Ex-Defense: No est v -1.3%
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: No est v 206.9B prior
- 09:00 (US) Oct House Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov New Home Sales: 440Ke v 444K prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 10e v 13 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weeky International Reserves
- 22:30 (TH) Thailand Nov Customs Trade Balance: -$1.8Be v -$1.7B prior; Customs Exports Y/Y: -3.6%e v -0.7% prior; Customs Imports Y/Y: -1.9%e v -5.4% prior

 

 

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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