Monday December 30, 2013 - 03:24:08 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-Dec-2013 -0323 GMT
Dow (16478.41, -0.01%) is very close to our target zone of 16700-800, after it closed above the 13 year old resistance line of 16200. The trend remains firmly up but we would keep an eye on the broader band of 16800-17600 as a lot of projections converge there. Initial sign of weakness will come only below 16300.
Dax (9589.39, +0.37%) has nearly met our target of 9600 in just two days of mentioning it on this space. Exercise a bit of caution here in this area of 9600-9650 for any sign of weakness though the trend remains firmly up.
Nikkei (16243.13, +0.40%) continues its rally after the classic Dow theory signal of a new bull market appeared finishing its 20 year long bear market. From that perspective, the next major dip would be an excellent opportunity for long-term investing in Japan for the next few years. In the short term, weakness would come only below the zone of 15950-16000.
Shanghai (2101.73, +0.02%) has faced rejection from our resistance at 2115 and come down. Below 2068, the fall will continue. Unless 2165-75 is taken out, the bears will continue to dominate on every rally.
Nifty (6313.80, +0.56%) had tested the entire resistance zone of 6305-25 on Friday and were rejected from exactly 6325. The challenge of the 5 year resistance zone of 6350-60 is very close now. The price action there may determine the next course of direction for the market. Initial sign of weakness will come below 6260 but the full bearish confirmation will come only below 6210-30.
Gold (1210.58) is testing resistance on the 13-day MA at current levels. If this holds, we may see some sideways consolidation within the 1185-1215 range. A break above these levels may see eventual rise towards 1225 and higher towards 1250.
Silver (19.885) is trading lower with no major movement. It may range in the 19-20.5 region in the near term.
Copper (3.3760) is trading lower as the resistance near 3.3990 holds well. Still trading in the crucial resistance zone of 3.39-3.40 we need to watch if this could be a fresh bear signal or just a correction of the sharp rise from 3.30 to 3.447. Near term movement may be expected within 3.35-3.40.
Brent (112.35) is trading higher but has been highly fluctuating in the past few sessions. While the uptrend continues we may expect 114 in the near term. Else it may trade between 111-112.5 for sometime before an eventual rise.
Nymex WTI (100.25) had come off from the 100-day MA on Friday and is currently trading above 100. While in an overall uptrend, we may expect a movement within 99.02-100.77. A break above 100.81 would take it higher towards 101-103 in the near term.
Dollar Index (80.35) had a sharp fall on Friday to reach 79.68 but the recovery was equally sharp. Holding this low, Dollar may try to break the resistance of 80.65-95 and rally much higher this week.
We had mentioned for the last few days that Euro (1.3750) bulls were managing to hold their ground by protecting 1.36-1.3620. It resulted in a sharp rally to test the long term resistance zone of 1.39-1.3920 and a subsequent sharp rejection. As long as Euro fails to close above this zone, it will be remain under pressure. Major support comes at 1.3650 now.
Dollar-Yen (105.35) has almost achieved our first target of 105.50 as it made a new 5-year high again at 105.41. The next target of 109 remains open. Any sign of weakness will be seen only below 103.50 and 102.50.
The Euro-Yen Cross (144.84) reached our first target of 144.60 after it broke out of the range of 140.90-142.90 on the upside and produced another fast move as expected. Next targets remain at 147.60 and 149.
The Pound (1.6474) reached our initial target of 1.6550 in line with expectation and hit a new 2 year high at 1.6578. As long as it stays above 1.62-1.63, more rallies may emerge towards 1.6740-50.
The Aussie (0.8848) was rejected from our resistance area around 0.8975-0.90 which it must cross and sustain above to trigger any hope for a possible move towards 0.91-0.92. Till then the downside remains open towards 0.87-0.8750.
Dollar Rupee (61.85) may open flat to positive near 61.90 today on the back of Dollar Index recovery. It failed to break above the resistance zone of 62.16-20 we have been watching and dropped to 61.90 and lower to 61.83 exactly in line with our expectation. To regain strength, it must break and stay above 61.96 and then 62.04. Bigger moves for the Dollar bears may come only below 61.60-70 towards 61-61.20.
The US 10Yr (2.99%) has come up to our target of 3.00% showing signs of improvement in the economy. It has come up to the long term resistance at the current levels. A break above the resistance near 3.00% and we may see the 10 Yr target 3.05% or even higher. The 5Yr (1.73%) the 30Yr (3.94%) remained stable.
German 10 Yr (1.95%) saw a sharp rise after the 2-day Christmas holiday. It has come up to a resistance near 2.00%. We may see a rise to 2.05% if the yields are able to break above the resistance Otherwise a fall to 1.80%. The German-US 10Yr differential (-1.04%) has come up after the rise in the German yields. The Japanese 10 Yr (0.70%) remained stable and is expected to remain in the range of 0.65%-0.7%. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.28%) has remained stable.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.96%) is up but the range of 8.75%-9.00% is not expected to be broken for the next few days.
No major data release today.
...Previous 55.10 ...Actual 55.20
...Expected 3.90 % ...Previous 4.00 % ...Actual 4.00%
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