User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday January 2, 2014 - 03:21:59 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 02-Jan-2014 -0321 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (16576.66, +0.44%) is very close to our target zone of 16700-800, after it closed above the 13 year old resistance line of 16200. The trend remains firmly up but we would keep an eye on the broader band of 16800-17600 as a lot of projections converge there. Initial sign of weakness will come only below 16300.

Dax (9552.16, -0.39%) has nearly met our target of 9600 in just two days of mentioning it on this space. We repeat, exercise a bit of caution here in this area of 9600-9650 for any sign of weakness though the trend remains firmly up.

Nikkei (16291.31, +0.69%) has finished the year with the biggest gain in the last 40 years. It continues its rally after the classic Dow theory signal of a new bull market appeared finishing its 20 year long bear market. From that perspective, the next major dip would be an excellent opportunity for long-term investing in Japan for the next few years. In the short term, weakness would come only below the zone of 15950-16000.

Shanghai (2105.47, -0.50%) has faced rejection from our resistance at 2115 and come down. Below 2068, the fall will continue. Unless 2165-75 is taken out, the bears will continue to dominate on every rally. There is a fair chance that the broader range of 2030-2250 may continue for a few months more.

Nifty (6291.10, -0.36%) keeps trading between the 5 year resistance zone of 6350-60 on the upside and 6260 on the downside. The BankNifty shows the same sideways mode and more weakness. Strength would return only on a close above 6350-60. Weakness would be confirmed below 6290 and then 6260-70.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1221.91) has bounced back sharply from the 1203 levels. A break above 1225 may take it to 1250. But while below 1225 we may expect a little consolidation before a fresh rise.

Silver (20.007) has risen sharply as expected. It may now target 21-21.5 in the near term while in an uptrend.

Copper (3.3985) is in an overall down trend and is trading in the crucial resistance zone of 3.39-3.40 now. Need to watch if this resistance is strong enough to push it back towards 3.35. A break above 3.40 may take it higher to 114 in the coming weeks.

Brent (110.97) fell sharply but fluctuated highly bouncing back from support near 110.40 while maintaining the long term uptrend. We could expect a move within the range 110.5-112.5.

Nymex WTI (98.61) had fallen further and is testing crucial support near current levels from where we may expect a bounce. Overall the trend remains up.

CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (80.122) is yet to break any of the overhead resistances and as a result, is pushed by the bears at every opportunity. It is close to the short term support area of 79.85-95, below which the weakness may take it towards 79.65 and then 79. Holding 79.85-95, it may make another attempt to break 80.65-95.

Euro (1.3766) had rallied sharply to test the long term resistance zone of 1.39-1.3920 and faced a subsequent sharp rejection. Now it has again come close to the immediate resistance area of 1.3830-60. As long as Euro fails to close above this zone and then 1.39-1.320, it will remain under pressure. Major supports come at 1.3720 and 1.3650 now.

Dollar-Yen (105.25) has taken a bit of pause immediately after it achieved our first target of 105.50 making a new 5-year high at 105.41. The bullish momentum remains fully strong above 104 and the next target of 109 remains open. Any sign of weakness will be seen only below 103.50 and 102.50.

The Euro-Yen Cross (144.87) reached our first target of 144.60 after it broke out of the range of 140.90-142.90 on the upside and produced another fast move as expected. Now the 4 day consolidation may be at the point of ending and the next move may be on the cards. In that respect, the level to watch would be 144.40, holding which it may give an immediate spurt. Next targets remain at 147.60 and 149. Supports come at 143.90-143.50.

The Pound (1.6582) keeps making new 2 year highs and is getting closer to the 4 year high of 1.6750. As long as it stays above 1.62-1.63, more rallies may emerge towards 1.6740-50. Some negative divergences are visible implying a lack of bullish momentum, but that will come into play only below 1.6370.

The Aussie (0.8919) bounced back sharply from 0.8833. Earlier, it was rejected from our resistance area around 0.8975-0.90 which it must cross and sustain above to trigger any hope for a possible move towards 0.91-0.92. Till then the downside remains open towards 0.87-0.8750.

Dollar Rupee (61.90) may open flat near 61.85-90 today. It has spent the fourth consecutive session inside the narrow range of 61.80-62.16, after failing once again to break above our resistance zone of 62.16-20. Last week’s range was a mere 40 paisa and yesterday it came down to 17 paisa. Keeping this range contraction in mind, we can expect bigger moves only beyond 61.65-70 on the downside and 62.20/62.45 on the upside now.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (3.03%) moved past the resistance to achieve our long held target of 3.00% before the markets closed for the New Year on Tuesday. A rise to 3.05% or higher can be expected. The 5Yr (1.74%) has also moved past the resistance and can now target 2.00%. The 30Yr (3.97%) has also risen along with the 10Yr and 5Yr and with the current rise in rates we may expect it to target 4.00% and above.

German 10 Yr (1.92%) is testing the resistance near 2.01%. A break above 2.01% and we may it targeting the long term resistance zone of 2.03%-2.04%. The Japanese 10 Yr (0.73%) has remained stable after the rise past 0.70%. We may see the yields targeting 0.80% if the Yen continues to weaken.

The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.84%) dipped as the rupee remained comatose in the first day of the New Year. It is still moving in the range of 8.75%-9.00%. We expect it to show some movement once the Rupee comes out of the comatose state now that the holiday season is over.

DATA TODAY

22:30 GMT or 4:00 IST AU PMI
...Previous - 47.70

5:00 GMT or 10:30 IST IN Manufacturing PMI
...Previous - 51.30

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST CH PMI
...Previous - 56.50

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU PMI
...Previous - 51.60

9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK PMI
...Previous - 58.40


DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105