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Tuesday January 7, 2014 - 11:21:42 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral bond yields continue to fall; Ireland successfully places 10-year debt in its first deal since emerging from bailout

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral bond yields continue to fall; Ireland successfully places 10-year debt in its first deal since emerging from bailout
Tue, 07 Jan 2014 5:21 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-US Senate confirms Janet Yellen as Fed Chairman in 56-26 vote (lowest support on record due to Republican opposition); Expected to take office Feb. 1st
- Australia Nov Trade Balance registers its 5th straight deficit (-A$118M vs. -A$300Me)
- German Unemployment registers its first decline in five months
- Ireland sells 10-year bonds via syndicate in its first bond deal since emerging from bailout; the 10-year Irish/German Gov't bond spread lowest since April 2010
- Euro Zone CPI remains below the 1% level for the third straight month


***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Nov Retail Sales M/M: +1.5 v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: +1.6% v -0.1% prior

- (DE) Germany Nov ILO Employment: 41.871M v 41.864M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.2 v 5.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Nov Preliminary Trade Balance: 130M v -34M prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec PMI Services: 57.7 v 57.0 prior
- (FR) France Dec Consumer Confidence: 85 v 84e
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Trade Balance: $1.4B v $3.6Be; Exports Y/Y: -1.9% v +0.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 10.1% v 2.2%e
- (HU) Hungary Nov PPI M/M: -0.3% v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.3%e
- (CH) Swiss Dec Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 435.2B v 435.0Be
- (EU) ECB 243M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 270M prior; 91.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 88.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (AT) Austria Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% v -2.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec Unemployment Change: -15K v -1Ke (first decline in five months); Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.9%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Foreign Reserves: $311.2B v $308.6B prior
- (CZ) Czech Dec International Reserves: $56.1B v $55.6B prior
- (UK) Dec New Car Registrations Y/Y: 23.8% v 7.0% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.5% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.0% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prior
- (SG) Singapore Dec Foreign Reserves: $273.1B v $271.9B prior
- (IS) Iceland Nov Final Trade Balance (ISK): 12.5B v 12.3B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e

Fixed Income:
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to sell 10-year bond; guidance seen at +145bps over mid-swaps with order book over 9.0B
- (EU) ECB allotted 112.5B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.25% vs. 130Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx 50 +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,752, DAX +0.3% at 9,454, CAC-40 +0.3% at 4,238, IBEX-35 +1% at 9,996, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 19,369, SMI +0.2% at 8,286, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,826]

- Market Focal Points: Most European equity markets opened lower on negative leads from Asia and markets and are now mostly higher, DAX supported by better than expected German jobs data, Spain's IBEX-35 continues to outperform and tests 10,000, Samsung guidance weighs on European chipmakers, Miners lag amid declines in copper, Takeover speculation supports wind power firms, Oil services firm EMGS warns on outlook, Pickup in bond issuance by European banks

By Sector
- Technology
[Software AG SOW.DE -3% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Delta Lloyd DL.NL +2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Sacyr SCYR.ES +5.5% (speculation related to an agreement in Panama), AP Moeller +3.5% (asset sale), BASF BAS.DE +2.5% (broker commentary); Air Liquide AI.FR -1% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Air Berlin AB1.DE +2% (Dec traffic +1.8% y/y), Topps Tiles TLT.UK +2% (Q1 SSS +9.3% y/y); Dunelm Group DNLM.UK -3% (H1 SSS -0.9%)]
- Energy [Vestas Wind VWS.DK +6% (broker commentary), Nordex NDX1.DE +4% (takeover speculation); Electromagnetic Geoservices EMGS.NO -8% (sales warning)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy +0.7%, Financials +0.6%, Telecom +0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Utilities +0.2%, Basic Materials +0.2%, Industrials flat; Technology -0.8%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%]

Speakers:
- EU's Barnier
: Europe has not forgotten China's confidence in Euro
- Turkey Fin Min Simsek: Uncertainty may have impacted Q1 growth; those who understand situation will return quickly
- India gold import curbs to stay until end of fiscal year (March)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action was quite subdued in the session with the USD posting marginal gains. Market saw little reaction after German Dec Unemployment Change registered its first decline in five months.
- The Irish 10-year bond deal in the session was viewed as a further sign of its rehabilitation in financial markets. . The 10-year Irish/German Gov't bond spread at approx 135bps, lowest since April 2010 after Ireland sold 10-year bonds
- Spanish and Italian govt bond yield continued to move lower. There was favorable press reports overnight on the peripheral bonds noting that yields were skimpy elsewhere

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB said to not be seeking to make any major adjustments to policy at next meeting; deflation risks are clear with much concern within the EMU; ECB remains ready to act should it become necessary - financial press
- Netherlands Fin Min Dijsselbloem: Netherlands will meet budget deficit targets in 2015 but will miss for 2014. Further cuts will be implemented as necessary to meet tgt in 2015
-(UK) British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) releases Q4 survey: Sees record highs in domestic services exports, employment balances
-(CN) PBoC did not conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session
-(KR) Samsung Electronics: Reports prelim Q4 Op profit KRW8.30T v KRW9.7Te; Rev KRW59.00T v KRW60.4Te

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) begins 2-day Monetary Policy meeting (Decision on Wed)
- (FR) US Treasury Sec Lew with France Fin Min Mosocvici in Paris
- (PT) European Parliament Delegation Visits Portugal
- (DE) German CSU Party at Annual Conclave in Wildbad Kreuth, Bavaria
- International Consumer Electronics Show begins
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell 1.25B in 26-Week Bills
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA): to sell combined 1.2B in 2023 and 2044 bonds

- 05:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 12-month Bills
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell up to 3.2B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 1.35B in 0.125% 2029 I/L Gilts

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.3% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Trade Balance: $125.0Me v $202.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.1B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.9B prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Copper Exports: No est v $3.3B prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 3.0B in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.0442% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.7x prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB to drain 179.0B in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset govt bond purchases under SMP program
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Vehicle Production: No est v 289.6K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 302.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 45.2K prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Official Reserves: No est $107.1B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$100Me v +C$80M prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov Trade Balance: -$40.0Be v -$40.6B prior
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Rosengren in CT
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Dec Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 54.5e v 53.7 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 48.2 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announces size of upcoming 3.25% 2044 Gilt
- 11:00 (US. Fed to purchase $2.25-3.00B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $43B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 3-Year Notes
- 14:10 (US) Fed's Williams Speaks on Economy in Phoenix, Arizona
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 19:01 (UK) Dec BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior

 

 

 

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