Friday January 10, 2014 - 03:44:54 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 10-Jan-2014 -0341 GMT
Dow (16444.76, -0.11%) remains in a shallow sideways corrective mode between 16400 and 16600. It was mentioned that any fall till 16100-200 may be just a normal correction. The trend remains up but we have been keeping an eye on the broader band of 16800-17600 as a lot of projections converge there. Initial sign of weakness will come only below 16100.
Dax (9421.61, -0.80%) failed to break above 9570 and got rejected from the resistance zone of 9520-25. The bearish Flag mentioned yesterday has been broken which gives us a target of 6300. Strength will be confirmed only above 9570 only. Till then, the targets of 9100-9150 remain open below 9300.
Nikkei (15812.59, -0.43%) was pushed back by the major resistance cluster of 16050-16120 to resume the fall, exactly in line with our expectation. Currently it is finding support at 15700-750, below which the fall will be faster and the targets of 15150-200 will open.
Shanghai (2018.01, -0.47%) got resisted at 2063 yesterday, very close to our resistance zone of 2068 and closed below the major support zone of 2030. Now the drop can extend much more as long as it stays below 2030.
Nifty (6168.35, +0.20) is waiting for the Infosys result expected in the next few minutes to begin the earnings season. A good result may bring some bounce despite the downtrend and take it to 6225-30 or even the major resistance zone of 6260-70. On the other hand, something below expectation would take Nifty quickly below 6130-50 and towards our initial target of 6075 or even lower.
Gold (1232.96) has risen and may eventually target the earlier resistance near 1245-1250 in the near term. Overall the trend remains down. Market expects an increase in the physical demand of the metal which may lead to an increase in prices.
Silver (19.644) has also slightly risen but remains below the resistance near 19.71. Testing crucial support at current levels on the weekly, we may see a rise towards resistance near 20-20.5.
Copper (3.2995) has fallen sharply. Immediate support coming up near 3.2913 from where it may bounce back towards 3.35. But if this level breaks we may see a fall to 3.2519 while in an overall downtrend.
Strong bears continue to dominate the Crude and the oil market.
Brent (106.61) is trading lower below our expected level of 106.8 on the downside. If this continues we may see levels of 106.5-104 in the coming weeks. Nymex WTI (92.37) has also fallen sharply and may target 90 in the coming sessions.
Dollar Index (80.94) is correcting a bit after hitting 81.20. As long as it stays above 80.80-85, the uptrend remains intact and the target of 81 remains open. On the other hand, a fall below 80.80-85 would drag it down to 80.55 once more. Immediate resistance comes at 81.30.
Euro (1.3608) has dropped from the major supply zone of 1.3660-90 in line with our expectation. The bearish momentum will return again below 1.3550-70 and the price is stuck between these two zones. Any rally may face selling pressure. Only a rally to 1.3730 may mitigate the immediate weakness.
Dollar-Yen (104.87) has held above 104 so far and it was mentioned repeatedly that the bullish momentum remains fully strong above 104 and the next target of 109 remains open. Any sign of weakness will be seen only below 103.50 and 102.50. Immediate resistances are at 105 and 105.40 levels.
The Euro-Yen Cross (142.70) has dropped sharply exactly from the strong supply zone of 143.30-70 mentioned yesterday. It was noted that, the selling pressure may return any moment as long as this zone was not convincingly broken above. Bearish momentum will return below 142 and 141.50.
The Pound (1.6478) saw good buying pressure once again near the area of 1.63 and bounced. As long as it stays above 1.62-1.63, more rallies may emerge towards 1.6740-50. Before that, it has to cross above the resistances of 1.6450-1.65, failing which the possibility of more falls canít be discarded. It is struggling with this resistance just now.
The Aussie (0.8899) has made yet another Bear Flag. It has been testing the resistance area of 0.90 repeatedly but failing to sustain above it so far. Earlier too, it was rejected from our resistance area around 0.8975-0.90 which it must cross and sustain above to trigger any hope for a possible move towards 0.91-0.92. Till then the downside remains open towards 0.87-0.8750. Bearish momentum will return below 0.8820-30.
Dollar Rupee (62.07) may open flat at 62.05-10 today. It had failed to break above 62.25-30 and dropped to make a low of 61.95 yesterday, in line with our expectation, before finally closing absolutely unchanged. Below this supply zone of 62.25-30, Dollar Rupee remains weak. Major resistances remain unchanged at 62.45-65 and supports remain at 61.60-70. The broader range bound movement continues. But this range is more than 3 weeks old now, so keep alert for a sharp move anytime now.
The US 10Yr (2.97%) remained stable as the markets wait for the US jobs data that is due to come out today. The 5Yr (1.76%) and the 30Yr (3.89%) also remained unchanged.
The ECB and the BOE Meetings concluded yesterday and both banks decided to keep their key policy rates unchanged. The German 10 Yr (1.91%), the Italian 10Yr (3.92%) and the Spanish 10Yr (3.79%) remained stable. The UK 10Yr (2.98%) also remained stable.
The Japan 10Yr (0.69%) remained stable. The US-Japan 10Yr Differential (2.27%) also remained stable.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.79%) currently moves in the range of 8.75%-9.00%. The Indian IIP data is due today and we can expect a movement after the inflation data is out.
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN Trade bal
...Previous -9.22 $ Bln
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU GDP
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.10 %
12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN IIP
...Previous -1.85 %
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US NFP
...Expected 194 K ...Previous 203 K
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 7.00 % ...Previous 7.00 %
FOMC Minutes - - -
UK Trade Balance
... Expected -9.40 £ (Bln) ...Previous -9.65 £ (Bln) ...Actual -9.44 £ (Bln)
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50 % ...Actual 0.50%
...Expected 0.25 % ...Previous 0.25 % ...Actual 0.25%
EU Biz Climate
...Expected 99.00 ...Previous 98.40 ...Actual 100.00
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