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Friday January 10, 2014 - 09:57:37 GMT
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U.S. Employment key to future Fed policy decisions
|U.S. Employment key to future Fed policy decisions|
10 January 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR US & CA- Employment, US- Wholesale Inventories, COT
| EURUSD 1.3598
|| U.S. 2.97% +1bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 142.74
|| Bund 1.89% -2bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6408
|| GILT 2.95% -2bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 104.97
|| JGB 0.70% 0.bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US- Employment
- As expected, the BOE kept policy steady Thursday.It released no policy statement. The ECB made no policy changes today. The tone of the post-meeting press conference with President Draghi was more dovish than many had expected.
- The December ADP private jobs report reflected a +238K increase in private jobs. That report has shaped market expectations for Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Keep in mind, you never know about the reliability of the ADP numbers. Major forecasters broadly have been increasing their estimates for this release. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- The minutes from the December Fed policy meeting contained no major surprises. Most members supported a QE reduction, as most are more confident on jobs outlook. This makes the Friday jobs report a major event.
- With Janet Yellen approved, to be the next head of the central bank as of February 1, better NFP data on Friday would reinforce the Bernanke asset purchases tapering decision made in December. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Monthly Canadian and U,S..jobs data are set for Friday..For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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