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Friday January 10, 2014 - 11:12:28 GMT
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The GBP did encounter some weakness following in the UK production data (both IP and Manufacturing came in below expectations). The GBP/USD fell over 50 pips and tested 1.64 figure following the data.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Industrial & Manufacturing data comes in softer than expected; focus turns to US Non-Farm Payroll data
Fri, 10 Jan 2014 5:20 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia Nov New Home Sales rise at fastest pace since Jan 2010 (M/M: +7.5% V -3.8% prior)
- China Dec Trade Balance registers smaller than expected surplus ($25.6B v $32.2Be) aiding by rebalancing (Exports Y/Y: 5.0%e v 12.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.3% prior)
- S&P affirmed Germany AAA sovereign rating; Outlook stable
- Sweden Nov Industrial Production beats expectations (M/M: 5.7% vs. 1.0%e)
- Norway CPI data softer than consensus and contracts (M/M: -0.1% vs. +0.2%e)
- UK Nov Industrial and Manufacturing data miss analyst expectations (both MoM readings were 0.0% vs. 0.4%e)


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Nov Preliminary Leading Index CI: 110.8 v 110.8e; Coincident Index: 110.5 (highest since July 2008) v 110.6e

- (IN) India Dec Trade Balance: -$7.2B v -$9.2B prior; Exports Y/Y: +3.5% v 5.7%e; Imports Y/Y: -15.3% v -15.0%e
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Jan 4th (y/y): 23.6% v 13.3% prior
- (CH) Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.4%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FI) Finland Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.8 v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.7 v -3.1% prior
- (FI) Finland Oct GDP Indicator WD: -0.6% v +0.6% prior
- (FR) Bank of France Dec Business Sentiment: 100 v 100e
- (FR) France Nov Industrial Production M/M: 1.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 0.9%e
- (FR) France Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5%e

- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 122.2K v 125.6K prior
- (ES) Spain Nov Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.2%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: 0.2% v 1.0% prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: 6.1% v 1.3%e
- (DK) Denmark Nov Industrial Production M/M: -2.4% v 0.8% prior
- (DK) Denmark Dec CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.5% prior
- (DK) Denmark Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.3% prior
- (RO) Romania Q3 Final GDP: Q/Q: 1.6% v 1.6% prelim; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.1% prelim
- (EU) ECB 180M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 656M prior; 50.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 48.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Dec CPI M/M: % v -0.1%e; Y/Y: % v 0.2%e
- (CH) Swiss Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.2% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 2.1% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.4% prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Budget Balance (SEK): -96.6B v 13.0B prior
- (SE) Sweden Nov Service Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.4%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Industrial Production M/M: 5.7% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: +3.5% v -1.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Industrial Orders M/M: +2.9% v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -6.3% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec CPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.3%e
- (NO) Norway Dec CPI Underlying M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.3%e
- (NO) Norway Dec PPI including Oil M/M: 1.6 v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.2% prior
- (UK) Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 3.0%e
- (UK) Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.3%e

- (UK) Nov Construction Output M/M: -4.0% v +0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 7.5%e
- (BR) Brazil Jan Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 0.6%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2019, 2023, 2032 and 2043 bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in 2025, 2038, and 2046 I/L bonds
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 8.5B vs. 8.5B in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.735% v 0.707% prior; Bid-to-Cover: 1.45x v 1.63x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.5%
, FTSE 100 +0.6% at 6,732, DAX +0.6% at 9,472, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,246, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 10,283 FTSE MIB +0.6% at 19,609, SMI +1% at 8,379, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,837]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets trade higher led by Swiss SMI, Better than expected earnings from India's Infosys supports European software companies, Swatch reports in line FY sales amid currency headwinds, Outlook commentary supportive to Lufthansa, China Dec exports below ests, Upcoming US payrolls data

By Sector
- Technology
[Cap Gemini CAP.FR +2% (earnings from Infosys)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Lufthansa LHA.DE +5% (issued FY14 guidance), Swatch UHR.CH +3.5% (in line FY sales, upbeat commentary), Metro MEO.DE +3% (break-up speculation); Brunello Cucinelli BC.IT -3% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Resources/Materials [Fresnillo FRES.UK -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [ Novartis NOVN.CH +1.5% (broker commentary), Roche ROG.CH +1% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Brenntag BNR.DE -2.5% (broker commentary), Siemens SIE.DE -0.5% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [MLP MLP.DE +2.5% (broker commentary); Man Group EMG.UK -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [SMA Solar S92.DE +10% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Telecom +0.9%, Consumer Cyclical +0.6%, Technology +0.5%, Industrials 0.5%, Basic Materials +0.5%, Energy +0.5%, Utilities +0.4%, Financials +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%]

Speakers:
- S&P affirmed Germany AAA sovereign rating; Outlook stable

- Finland Fin Min Urpilainen reiterated the view that it was too early to declare victory in EMU crisis and that challenging times to continue. She could not promise an end to the increase in debt or to Finland structural changes and stressed the Govt must increase employment
- China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stated that market-base IPO reform did not permit 'unrestrained' freedom. Companies under review would have to submit disclosure documents and 2013 annual reports. IPOs meeting estimate to start in March (**Note: China had approved over 50 companies have started the IPO process since end-December. The market had been previously frozen since Nov 2012)
- China PBoC reiterated its view to maintain 'prudent monetary' policy stance in 2014 and promote moderate money and credit growth, broaden cross-border use of the yuan.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- EUR/USD rebounded following a dovish ECB press conference yesterday but contained within established hourly ranges. The pair hovered around the 1.36 handle throughout the session today.
Yesterday saw the ECB strengthen its language in Draghi's introductory statement to "strongly" emphasize that monetary policy would remain accommodative and to "firmly" reiterate its forward guidance. Nonetheless price action was non-responsive to a plethora of data releases in today's sessions ahead of the key US Dec Non-farm payroll data
- The GBP did encounter some weakness following in the UK production data (both IP and Manufacturing came in below expectations). The GBP/USD fell over 50 pips and tested 1.64 figure following the data. The 10-year Gilt yield declined further from 2.96% to approx. 2.94%
- Nordic currencies did react to data in the session. The SEK currency firmed after Sweden industrial production data beat expectations in the session. The EUR/SEK moved from 8.9150 to test below 8.86 in the reaction. The NOK was softer following a softer CPI data out of Norway. EUR/NOK cross went from 8.37 to test near 8.43 in the aftermath

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: Currently low inflation partially due to euro zone macro economy, but not currently concerned by low inflation levels - CNBC interview; Markets will be judge on risk of govt bonds.
- (EU) Former ECB President Trichet: Eurozone is facing a limited risk of deflation; Eurozone is not facing Japanese-type deflation.
- (US) Fed's Kocherlakota (dovish, FOMC alternate): Fed could do better by adopting a more accommodative monetary policy stance; Fed is going in wrong direction, should ease policy.
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): lays out optimistic view of 2014-2015 growth; Sees growing upside risks to US economy.
- (US) Fed's George (hawk, dissenter in 2013, FOMC non-voter in 2014):If Fed remains too focused on current measures then it may wait too long to raise interest rates

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel and CDU Executive hold New Years conclave
- (PE) Peru Nov Trade Balance: No est v -$303M prior
- (MX) Mexico Dec Nominal Wages
- (RU) Russia Dec Reserve Fund: No est v $86.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $88.1B prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.8%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Industrial Production M/M: no est v -11.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -7.6% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announcement on 3-year LTRO repayments
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:15 (IT) Italy PM Letta with Foreign Affairs Min Bonino press conference
- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jan 3rd: No est v $ prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Economist Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IN) India Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: +0.9%e v -1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +195Ke v +203K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +197Ke v +196K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +15Ke v +27K prior; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision: no est v +8K prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.0%e v 7.0% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 13.2% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +818K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 63.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.0% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Net Change in Employment: +14.1Ke v +21.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.9%e v 6.9% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +1.4K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +20.0K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.4% prior
- 08:45 (US) Fed's Lacker
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Gross Fixed Investment: -4.7%e v -5.5% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.3%e v 3.5% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 2.2%e v 3.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Wholesale Inventories MM: 0.4%e v 1.4% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.7%e v 1.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.0e v 43.1 prior
- 10:00 (UK) Dec NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.8% prior
- 10:15 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy meets Latvia's Dombrovskis in Riga
- 11:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy attends Latvia Euro-Entry Ceremony in Riga
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase in Notes
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
- 13:00 (EU) Fed's Bullard speaks on US Economy in Indianapolis

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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