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Weak U.S. Employment data. Focus now Fed and ECB
|Weak U.S. Employment data. Focus now Fed and ECB|
13 January 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR JP- Holiday
| EURUSD 1.3671
|| U.S. 2.86% -10bp
|| North America: Lower|
| EURJPY 142.15
|| Bund 1.85% -6bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6477
|| GILT 2.88% -6bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 103.98
|| JGB 0.70% 0.bp
|| Far East Close: Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Holiday
- The weakness of December U.S. jobs report was a real shocker. Some dismissed the data as mainly weather-related, but others saw weak underlying figures in the report. We feel the data confirmed that the U.S. jobs recovery is likely to remain slow.
- As for the Fed, it is our impression that the central bank cannot end the asset purchase program soon enough and will do all in its power to maintain the current timing of its taper program. Key will be if future jobs figures continue to come in at the current average level of about 150-200K per month. If not, all tapering bets could be off.
- It might be that the tide may be ready to turn in the markets against the EUR. At the end of 2013, it appeared that a EUR liquidity squeeze kept the unit in demand. It is possible now that with this technicality out of the way that the EUR could start to soften.
- We were surprised by the intensity of the dovish tone taken by ECB President Draghi. However he is a master talking around a subject. The ECB has pursued an unnecessarily tight monetary policy for years and as a result has not done nearly enough to promote economic growth throughout the currency area. As a result, the common currency will have to weaken at some point this year if the U.S. finally recovers.
- The data calendar this week will give markets a chance to digest the events of the past week. U.S. Retail Sales data (Tuesday) are always key to economic sentiment. .For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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