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Wednesday January 15, 2014 - 03:37:48 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 15-Jan-2014 -0335 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (16373.86, +0.71%) bounced from 16240 creating a Bullish Harami pattern. It was mentioned earlier that any fall till 16100-200 may be just a normal correction. The trend remains up but we have been keeping an eye on the broader band of 16800-17600 too as a lot of projections converge there. Initial sign of weakness will come only below 16050-100.

Dax (9540.51, +0.32%) is consolidating between 9350-9650 for the last 3 weeks. Any major move will come only beyond this range. Resistance is at 9750-800 levels and support is at 9350 and 9200 levels.

Nikkei (15683.03, +1.69%) has bounced from the immediate support of 15400 mentioned yesterday. The targets of 15150-200 open below the support of 15400. Strength will return above 16150. Immediate resistance is at 15700-800.

Shanghai (2019.40, -0.37%) is going to test the 2000 level again after getting resisted at 2030 once more, which is a sign of danger for the bulls. Now the drop can extend below 2000 as long as it stays below 2030.

Nifty (6241.85, -0.49%) was rejected from our resistance zone of 6290-6310 to close lower near our support zone of 6220-30. A break below 6220-30 will weaken the price considerably and the intermediate trend will be bearish below 6130-50. To reach the next upside target of 6475, the bulls need to protect 6220-30 and break above 6325.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1247.688) has fallen sharply from 1256 and is currently testing the 50-day MA at current levels. Only a sustained rise above 1250 could ensure a move towards 1275-1300 which may take a few more sessions. We may see ranged movements between 1225 and 1250 before a sharp movement occurs.

Silver (20.170) made a high of 20.608 but could not sustain those levels coming back to levels below 20.5. A rise above 20.5-20.65 is needed to ensure a rise towards 21.5. While below 20.5 we could see some ranged movements above 19 on the downside.

Copper (3.3185) has fallen a bit and may test immediate support near 3.30. If this holds it may bounce back towards 3.40 but a break below 3.30 may see a fall to 3.20. Though demand of this industrial metal remains weak in China, the improving economic growth in the US may support prices in the near term.

Brent (106.22) is trading low. Prices may reduce on expansion of oil production in Libya. This may help the European refineries to make some profit now. Brent may continue to remain ranged in the 106-108 regions in the near term. Need to see if it breaks below 106.

Nymex WTI (92.530) has risen as the US Retail Sales came out more than expected on speculation that the oil inventories have dropped considerably. We may expect some consolidation in the coming sessions within the 91-93.5 range before deciding further movements. Overall the trend remains up.

CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (80.84) has bounced from the support zone of 80.30-50 towards the immediate resistance at 80.90-81.05. Strength will return above 81.05. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above 80.30-50. From a broader perspective, the Dollar index keeps trading in a contracting range within 79-81.50 for nearly 3 months now and only a break of that range would give any real direction.

Euro (1.3643) is getting rejected from the major supply zone of 1.3660-90 once more. The bearish momentum will return only below 1.3550-70. Only a rally above 1.3725-65 may mitigate the immediate weakness.

Dollar-Yen (104.38) extended the bounce from 102.85 to keep their hopes alive. Longer term uptrend back in force? In that case, the rally may target 107 now above 105.40-60.

The Euro-Yen Cross (142.41) has bounced back sharply from 140.50 after finishing exactly 5 waves. Now it faces the major supply zone at 143-143.30. The bears are expected to return at this level. Bulls must sustain above this zone to continue the rally.

The Pound (1.6420) is in the 3rd week of sideways trade between 1.6600 and 1.6338. Good Support at 1.6338 now. Can rise again towards 1.6600 within overall uptrend from 1.4800 (Jul-13). Where it will go after that will have to be seen.

The Aussie (0.8927) has failed to stay above 0.90 and broke down below 0.8950-60 to signal the termination of the bounce. Now any rally towards 0.91 is expected to be sold into and a break below 0.8875 looks highly probable. A new 3 year low can be expected below 0.8875.

Dollar Rupee (61.52) bulls managed to protect 61.40 and keep their hopes still alive. But the trend remains firmly down and the weakness persists as long as it stays below 61.70-75 and the possibility of a retest of the major support zone of 60.80-61.20 remains open. Above 61.70-75, resistance comes at 62.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.87%) rose a bit after the Retail Sales data came out stronger than expected. We may see the yield ranged between 2.75%-3.00% in the near term. The 5Yr (1.66%) and the 30Yr (3.80%) also saw a rise after the Retail Sales data.

The German 10 Yr (1.81%) remained stable after the Industrial Production data yesterday which came out better than expected. The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.20%) has come up from the support zone of -0.28%-0.30%. The UK 10Yr (2.83%) remained stable and is ranged between 2.75%-3.00%.

The Japan 10Yr (0.66%) remained unchanged even after a stronger Dollar-Yen yesterday. The US-Japan 10Yr Differential (2.21%) increased with the increase in US Yields.

The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.71%) fell below the lower boundary of our range of 8.75%-9.00%. The WPI Data got postponed at the last moment yesterday and shall come out today which will be closely watched.

DATA TODAY
6:30 GMT or 12:00 IST IN WPI
...Previous - 7.52 %

10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU Trade Bal
...Expected 16.70 EUR Bln ...Previous 14.50 EUR Bln

13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
...Expected 0.10 % ...Previous 0.05 %

US Debt Ceiling

DATA YESTERDAY

UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 2.10 % ...Previous 2.10 % ...Actual 2.00%

EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous -0.80 % ...Actual 1.81%

EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.20 % ...Actual 2.63%

US Retail Sales
...Expected 0.09 % ...Previous 0.09 % ...Actual 0.73%

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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John M. Bland, MBA
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