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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Emerging market currencies remain under presser on Fed taper concerns

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Emerging market currencies remain under presser on Fed taper concerns
Wed, 15 Jan 2014 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- World Bank: Raises 2014 global GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.0% prior (first increase in global GDP projections in 3 years)
- China Dec New Yuan Loans 1-year low (CNY): 482.5B v 570.0Be
- India WPI slows to a 5 month low; justifies Dec pause by RBI
- Euro Zone Trade Balances continue to post large surpluses

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Nov Retail Sales M/M: % v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v -8.0%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: % v 0.6%e
- (JP) Japan Dec Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 28.0% v 15.4% prior
- (IN) India Dec Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 6.2% v 7.0%e
- (FI) Finland Nov Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.4% prelim
- (PH) Philippines Nov Overseas Workers Remittances: $2.1B v $2.1B prior; Y/Y: 7.5% v 8.0%e
- (DE) Germany 2013 GDP Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Budget Deficit to GDP ratio under Maastricht: -0.1% v 0.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Export Price Index Y/Y: 2.9% v -0.1% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: +1.0% v -1.7% prior
- (CZ) Czech Dec PPI Industrial M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.3%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (TR) Turkey Oct Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.9% prior
- (DK) Denmark Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: +0.3% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Nov Current Account Balance: 430M v 220M prior
- (ES) Spain Dec CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (ES) Spain Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (ES) Spain Dec CPI Core M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.4%e
- (EU) ECB 162M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 170M prior; 58.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 58.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Nov Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.2% v 1.7%e
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Trade Balance: 4.2B v 4.2B prior
- (RU) Russia Dec Light Vehicle Car Sales Y/Y: -5.5% v -30%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Trade Balance (NOK): 33.4B v 33.9B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Kagiso Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 v 52.5e
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: 16.0B v 14.8Be v 14.5B prior; Trade Balance Unadj: 16.5Be v 17.2B prior

Fixed Income:
- (EU) EFSF opened its book to sell new 5-year Jan 2019 bond; guidance seen at +8bps over mid-swaps
- (IN) India sold total INR70B vs. INR70B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B vs.SEK3.5B indicated in 4.25% 2019 Bonds; Yield: 1.7080% v 1.6684% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-day Refi Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. $0.0M prior
- (RU) Russia sold RUB1.1B vs. RUB20B indicated in 2020 OFZ Bonds; Yield: 7.46%

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4%,
FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,785, DAX +0.8% at 9,615, CAC-40 +0.4% at 4,290, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 10,389, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 19,861, SMI +0.2% at 8,402, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,835]

Market Focal Points: European equity markets trade at 5.5 year high, European banks gain as Draghi clarifies treatment of sovereign debt in stress tests, French Banks gain amid decision by government to not raise certain savings rates, Burberry gains on better than expected sales, German airlines rise amid speculation that certain night bans could be eased, Upcoming Bank of America earnings , Upcoming Fed Beige Book and commentary from various central bankers (BoE's Carney, Fed's Evans)

By Sector
- Industrials
[Manz Automation M5Z.DE +5% (order update), Finmeccanica FNC.IT +3% (speculation related to IPO for Ansaldo Energia), Akzo Nobel AKZA.NL +1.4% (CFO change); Fenner FENR.UK -6% (cautious outlook)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Burberry BRBY.UK +5% (Q3 sales above ests), H&M HMB.SE +2% (Dec sales above ests), Daimler DAI.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Hargreaves Lansdown HL.UK -3.5% (revised certain management charges)]
- Technology [Wirecard WDI.DE +4% (broker commentary); Ordina ORDI.NL -4% (share placement), CSR CSR.UK -3.5% (share placement)]
- Utilities [E.ON EOAN.DE +1.5% (broker commentary), Centrica CNA.UK -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Anglo American AAL.UK +4% (broker commentary), Salzgitter SZG.DE +2% (broker commentary), K+S SDF.DE +2% (reaffirmed 2013 forecast)]
- Energy [Tullow Oil TLW.UK -1% (issued FY revenue guidance and initial production outlook) ]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Financials +1%, Utilities +1%, Consumer Cyclical +0.8%, Industrials +0.5%, Telecom +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat; Energy -0.3%, Technology -0.1%]

Speakers:
- German Deputy Fin Min Kampeter:
German trade surplus is reason to be glad; criticism is unjustified
- German stats office: Q4 GDP estimated at +0.25% q/q (**Note: Q3 was +0.3%)
- Bank of France proposed cut savings rate (Livret) by 25bps to 1.00% but Fin Min Moscovici stated that it would keep Livret A interest rate at 1.25%
- Russia Central Bank First Deputy Yudaeva stated the country was facing stagnation like other BRICs (India/Brazil). Russian inflation expectations remained high and stressed that it must be anchored at low level. Russia might not completely abandon FX interventions. Says RUB currency already acting in part as reserve currency; China CNY currency was failing to emerge as a reserve currency
- Russia PM Medvedev: Pace of domestic growth is raising concerns
- OECD: Russian economy growing but further reforms needed bolster future growth
- Hungary Central Bank Deputy Gov Balog stated that he saw no deflation in next 18 months and a looser monetary policy for longer period. Output gap remained negative. Fed tapering does not limit Hungary rate cut scope
- Turkey Fin Min Simsek: 2013 GDP growth seen around 4%; Fed tapering and probe of govt increased downside of growth but effects seen limited. Lira currency weakness to help current account deficit
- China's Jan new yuan loans may total above CNY1.0T )**Note: January is typically a high time for lending in China ahead of the Lunar New Year Holiday)
- Indonesia Central bank (BI) Gov Martowardojo: IDR currency (Rupiah) depreciation to impact 2014 core inflation

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The European session began under the assumption of a strong USD environment following the Tuesday US Retail Sales data. Greenback at 1-week highs among many major pairs. EUR/USD at 1.3620 ahead of the NY morning
- AUD/USD moved lower the past 24 hours from the pivotal 0.9050 area. Aussy weighed down by fresh data from its biggest trade partner. China Dec New Yuan Loans hit a 1-year low
- Emerging market currencies remained under presser as recent US data proving that the soft payroll data might have been a fluke. TRY was back at fresh record lows against the USD near 2.20 while the South African Rand was at fresh 5-year lows as USD/ZAR approached the 11 handle

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Draghi: Sovereign exposures to be included in EU bank stress tests, do not expect sovereign debt portfolios held to maturity to be marked to market in stress tests
- Reports that ECB's AQR will let banks use a simplified, less harsh definition of bad loans (compared to using the EBA's new definitions outlined in Oct)
- (DE) Bundesbank's Lautenschlaeger: Investors should be responsible for losses in the SRM, any public money bail in should be the exception
- (IT) China and Italy signed MOU on Tuesday to increase trade and investment cooperation - China Daily
- (UK) UK Fin Min Osborne to reiterate EU must reform if UK to remain as a member - financial press
- (UK) Head of Labour party Miliband to propose caps on the market share of banks - London Telegraph
- (US) Fed's Plosser (hawk, 2014 voter): In no hurry to increase interest rates assuming unemployment rate hits 6.5%; Weak Dec jobs data should not impact taper
- (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, 2014 voter): Will continue to support tapering QE bond purchases even if stocks fall, first taper cut should have been around $20B rather than $10B
- (CN) China Central Bank (PBOC) official Sheng: Will not tighten or loosen monetary policy; reiterates will maintain prudent monetary policy stance in 2014 - financial press
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to maintain or slightly lift price forecast for FY13/14 and FY14/15 - press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CH) Swiss government holds regular meeting
- (DE) German Bundesbank Board Member Nagel speaks in Frankfurt
- (EU) EU's Rehn with Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem with Chinese Officials in Beijing
- (RU) Russia Dec Official Reserve Assets: $512.7Be v $515.6B prior
- (PE) Peru Nov Economic Activity Y/Y: 5.4%e v 5.4% prior
- (PE) Peru Dec Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.8% prior
- (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in 2016 OFZ Bond
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in new 1.0% 2019 BOBLs
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell 3-month and 12-month Bills
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2022 and 2028 Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) EU's Almunia to unveil rule change on risk-finance aid
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Constant Retail Sales M/M: +0.7%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 1.3% prior;
- 06:45 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (ES) Spain Econ Min De Guindos speaks in Madrid
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 10th: No est v 2.6% prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Consumer Confidence: No est v 71.0 prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec CPI M/M: +0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior
- 08:05 (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) speaks in Saarbruecken, Germany
- 08:30 (US) Jan Empire Manufacturing: 3.50e v 0.98 prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec PPI M/M: +0.4%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.3% prior

- 09:00 (PL) Poland Dec YTD Budget Balance (PLN): No est v -38.5B prior; Budget Balance Performance: No est v 74.7% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Nov Trade Balance: No est v 197.4M prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Dec Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v -0.1% prior
- 09:00 (EU) ESM's Regling speaks at EU Parliament Panel on Troika
- 09:00 (EU) EU Parliament debates entry bids of Serbia, Balkan Neighbors
- 09:15 (UK) BOE Gov Carney, Cunliffe, Furse, and Sharpe Speak in London
- 10:00 (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) speaks again in Saarbruecken, Germany
- 10:00 (US) House financial committee hearing on Volker rule
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US. Fed to purchase $4.0-5.0B in Notes
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Dec CPI M/M: +0.2%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.9% prior
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell CAD3.4B in 5-Year Bonds
- 12:50 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Economy in Coralville, Iowa
- 13:00 (US) IMF chief Lagarde speaks at National Press Club
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Beige Book
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Construction Activity M/M: No est v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec CPI M/M: 1.0%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.5% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 14.2% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Trade Balance: +$83.2Me v -$264.0M prior; Total Imports: $5.3Be v $5.4B prior
- 17:45 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks to CFA Society of Atlanta
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Selic Target Rate by 25bps to 10.25%
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Employment Change: +10.0Ke v +21.0K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior

 

 

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Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
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Tue 21 Nov
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23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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