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Wednesday January 15, 2014 - 16:55:37 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Return of the Rally US Market Update: Return of the Rally
Wed, 15 Jan 2014 11:27 AM EST

- Bank of America's strong fourth quarter drives positive tone.
- World Bank raises its 2014 GDP projections to 3.2% from 3.0% prior forecast on the strength of recovery in developed economies

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Nov Constant Retail Sales M/M: 1.2% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 0.9%e
- (RU) Russia Dec Official Reserve Assets: $509.6B v $512.7Be
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 10th: 11.9% v 2.6% prior
- (IE) Ireland Dec Consumer Confidence: 79.8 v 71.0 prior
- (PL) Poland Dec CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (US) Jan Empire Manufacturing: 12.51 v 3.50e
- (US) Dec PPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (US) Dec PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e
- (BE) Belgium Nov Trade Balance: -0.3B v +0.4B prior
- (CA) Canada Dec Existing Home Sales M/M: -1.8% v -0.1% prior

- Asian and European trading saw follow-through strength from yesterday's strong US performance, with European equities pushing out to five-and-a-half-year highs. The very good performance at Bank of America is helping sentiment this morning. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.65%, the S&P500 is up 0.62% and the Nasdaq is up 0.49%.

- There was a larger-than-forecast 0.3% gain in the December core PPI was the best in months, however y/y PPI gain of 1.2% was the lowest in five years, raising real concerns about disinflationary trends. In other data, the New York Fed's Empire State business conditions index rose to 12.51 in January from a revised 2.22 in December to hit its highest since May 2012.

- After a spate of dollar weakness that followed the conflicted December jobs report, the greenback has recovered its losses during the overnight Asian and European sessions. After testing 1.3700 yesterday morning, EUR/USD tumbled to 1.3585 earlier this morning.

- Bank of America saw big gains y/y in its headline results, with profits up 5x and revenue up 15%, both ahead of consensus forecasts, along with a huge decline in provisions for credit losses. There were a few negative developments in the business, with mortgage originations down 46% y/y and business loans down slightly y/y, not to mention large additions to litigation reserves. However management explained these away and investors seem to judge that the good outweighs the bad: shares of BAC are up 2.5%, at one-year highs.

- The Detroit Auto Show is under way this week, providing a stage for auto industry names to talk about the upcoming year. GM offered an FY14 outlook that was more or less flat y/y, with North America industry volumes around 16-16.5M units and global industry sales about +2% to above 85M units. Major auto parts names American Axle and Magna International offered in-line forecasts for FY14. GM is down 2.3% while AXL and MGA are up slightly. Note that shares of Ford are up 2.3%.

- Shares of multi-level marketing name Nu Skin are down nearly 17% this morning after the China's People's Daily called the company's marketing in China "a lie" and the company itself as a pyramid scheme that could be illegal. According to Nu Skin itself, Greater China contributed 20% of company's FY12 Rev and is projected to contribute 44% of FY13 Rev.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Dec CPI M/M: +0.2%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.9% prior
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell CAD3.4B in 5-Year Bonds
- 12:50 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Economy in Coralville, Iowa
- 13:00 (US) IMF chief Lagarde speaks at National Press Club
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Beige Book
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Construction Activity M/M: No est v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec CPI M/M: 1.0%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.5% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 14.2% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Trade Balance: +$83.2Me v -$264.0M prior; Total Imports: $5.3Be v $5.4B prior
- 17:45 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks to CFA Society of Atlanta
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Selic Target Rate by 25bps to 10.25%
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Employment Change: +10.0Ke v +21.0K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior




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