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Thursday January 16, 2014 - 11:09:42 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Recent risk appetite takes a pause

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Recent risk appetite takes a pause
Thu, 16 Jan 2014 5:17 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) raises Selic Target Rate by 50bps to 10.50%, more than expected
- (AU) Australia Dec Employment Change: -22.6K v +10.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.8%e
- US Treasury accidently releases Nov Total Net TIC Flows: -$29.3B V $28.7B prior; China Total holding of US Treasuries: $1.32T (record high)
- ECB excess liquidity at 131B, lowest since Dec 2011
- Spain bond auction results steady. Sells above indicated amount but lower bid-covers

***Economic Data***
- (EU) EU27 Dec New Car Registrations: 13.3% v 1.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec Final CPI M/M: % v 0.4%e; Y/Y: % v 1.4%e
- (DE) Germany Dec Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 1.2%e
- (EU) ECB 243M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 162M prior; 31.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 58.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (AT) Austria Dec CPI M/M: 0.6 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9 v 1.4% prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Total Trade Balance: 3.1B v 4.1B prior; Trade Balance EU: 0.7B v 1.2B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e

Fixed Income
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.91B vs. 4.5-5.5B indicated range in 2017, 2026 and 2028 Bonds

- Sold 2.662B in 2.1% Apr 2017 bono; Avg Yield: 1.595% (EMU record low) v 2.182% prior; Maximum Yield: 1.62% v 2.203% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.2x v 3.62x prior; Tail: 2.5bps v 2.1bps prior
- Sold 1.811B in 5.9% Jul 2026 Bono; Avg Yield 3.997% v 4.469% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.41x v 2.41x prior; Max Yield: 4.012% v 4.488% prior; Tail: 3.5bps v 1.9bps prior
- Sold 1.442B in 5.15% Oct 2028 Bono; Avg Yield 4.199% v 4.192% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.99x v 2.7x prior; Max Yield 4.223% v 4.198% prior; Tail: 2.4bps v 0.6bps prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%,
FTSE 100 flat at 6,821, DAX -0.1% at 9,727, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,323, IBEX-35 flat at 10,521, FTSE MIB -0.4% at 19,971, SMI +0.1% at 8,435, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,839]

- Market Focal Points: Equities open flat then trade mixed, DAX retests record high, French retailer Carrefour reports in line results, Swiss watchmaker Richemont reports weakness in China, Rio Tinto production report supports resources sector, UK retailers continue to report mixed results, European banks decline ahead of US financial earnings, European corporates continue to face forex headwinds (Richemont, Beiersdorf), Upcoming US earnings (UnitedHealth, Goldman, Citi, Blackrock)

By Sectors
- Consumer Discretionary
[Bang Olufsen BO.DK +9% (Q2 results above ests), Ocado OCDO.UK -3% (guided results in line), Richemont CFR.CH -2.5% (Q3 sales below ests), Carrefour CA.FR -2% (quarterly sales only in line); Halfords HFD.UK +6% (Q3 sales +5.2%), Home Retail HOME.UK +3% (raised outlook), Adecco ADEN.CH +1% (broker commentary), Beiersdorf BEI.DE +1% (reaffirmed outlook), Ladbrokes LAD.UK +1% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Consumer Staples [Ahold AH.NL -3% (quarterly results below ests)]
- Healthcare [NiCox COX.FR +5% (marketing agreement)]
- Telecom [KPN KPN.NL +2% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [Premier Oil PMO.UK -4% (production update), Acciona ANA.ES -2% (convertible bond offering)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Rio Tinto RIO.UK +1.5% (record Q4 iron ore production)]
- Utilities [United Utilities UU.UK +4% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology -1%, Utilities -0.6%, Energy -0.5%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.3%, Financials -0.2%, Telecom -0.1%, Industrials -0.1%; Basic Materials flat]

Speakers:
- ECB's Noye
r (France) commented that PM Hollande reform pact with business was needed to increase economic growth and could create up to one million jobs. He reiterated view that ECB will take additional measures if necessary to support growth (in line with Draghi monthly press conference)
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany) stated that deflation risks in euro zone were limited and that inflation expectations were well anchored. He also reiterated the ECB view that expansive monetary policy was appropriate at this time. Global, EMU recovery should rebound in 2014
And saw Germany 2014 GDP growth at 1.7% and 2.0% in 2015. Lastly he noted that low interest rates did not only have negative effects
- (EU) ECB Monthly Report mirrored Draghi post rate decision press conference. ECB 'firmly' reiterated forward guidance and 'strongly emphasized' accommodative monetary policy stance. Expected interest rates to remain at present level or lower for an extended period of time and that the Euro Area might experience a prolong period of low inflation
- Norway Central Bank (Norges) survey: Banks Q4 corporate credit demand was unchanged q/q
- Germany's BDI Industrial Association stated that it saw foreign demand for German goods increasing and that 2014 GDP growth of over 2% was possible
- Turkey Dep PM Babacan commented that the country's inflation target might have to be revised due to currency factors (**Reminder: RY currency (Lira) continued to hit fresh record lows against USD and Euro currencies amid political scandal)
- Poland Dep Fin Min Kotecki: CPI to rise gradually to 1.6% by mid-year but 2014 avg to be markedly below 2%
- Thailand Central Bank spokesperson stated that next week monetary policy meeting would be held as planned despite protests (**Noted scheduled for Wed, Jan 22nd)
- India FY14 fiscal gap to be lower than expected 4.8% Target, borrowing might be lower by INR150B. India sought a lower fiscal deficit in bid to avoid a sovereign rating downgrade
- Iran Foreign Min Zarif: Final deal on Iran nuclear program is absolutely possible
- UN Chemical Weapons Monitor (OPCW): Amount of chemical arsenal that reached Syrian port had not been high; expected to be able to move more quickly in coming weeks

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- USD consolidated its recent two-day of gains against the European pairs while improvement in risk appetite was supporting Euro zone peripherals.
- The JPY currency maintained a soft tone as well due to the risk-on sentiment . BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated that its moderate recovery should survive the planned 8% hike in the sales tax increase in April

Political/In the Papers:
-IMF's Lagarde: Global growth should strengthen further in 2014; reiterates IMF global growth outlook will be revised higher; Seeing significant rising risk of deflation in developed economies
- (EU) EU Commissioner Rehn: Euro zone debt levels are stabilizing; Met with China's Fin Min Lou and PBoC Gov Zhou.
-(US) Fed's Evans (dove, FOMC 2014 alternate): Tapering QE asset purchases by measured steps is reasonable, could be more aggressive cuts to purchases if the economy improves further; Fed would be unlikely to pause the taper if data weakened, focus now is on forward guidance as the main policy tool.
- (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC alternate): Dissipating headwinds to allow more growth
-(CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) Sheng: Expects to see choppy trade data in Q1 due to factors including higher costs, liquidity shortages, base effects and competition.
- (CN) PBoC did not conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (7th consecutive session of halted operations)
- (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Domestic economy has been recovering moderately; expects recovery even with sales tax
- (JP) Japan Cabinet Office to raise economic assessment in Jan (1st time in 4 months) - Nikkei News (**Note: Govt raised its economic assessment 4 times during 2013 while the BOJ raised its 8 times. Both the Govt and BOJ use the term 'recovery' in their current assessment

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IN) Indian National Congress Senior Leaders began 2-day meeting
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni
- (ES) EU's Barroso in Spain to meet PM Rajoy on banking sector bailout exit
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 2.0B in 3.25% 2044 Gilts
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills
- 06:00 (EU) EU Parliament Passes Resolutions on Serbia, Balkan Neighbors
- 06:00 (EU) EU Parliament votes on Lautenschlaeger's ECB Nomination
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q3 Final GDP Annualized: No est v 2.0% prelim
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec CPI M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Trade Balance: No est v 3.0B prior
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jan 3rd: No est v $511.6B prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.2%e v 5.3% prior; Broad Retail Sales Broad Y/Y: 4.1%e v 2.2% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 9-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON100M in Bonds
- 07:30 (ES) Spain Econ Min De Guindos speaks in Madrid
- 07:45 (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) Gov Linde speaks in Madrid
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec CPI Core M/M: 0.0%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior

- 08:30 (US) Dec CPI NSA: 233.066e v 233.069 prior CPI Core Index SA: 235.586e v 235.24 prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 328Ke v 330K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.85Me v 2.865M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Int'l Securities Transactions (CAD): No est v 4.4B prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Treasury Sec Lew
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Leading Indicators: No est v 0.0 prior
- 09:15 (US) Fed's Williams Presents Paper on Central Banking in Washington
- 10:00 (US) Jan Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 8.7e v 7.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan NAHB Housing Market Index: 58e v 58 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 10-year TIPS announcement
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2020 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.50B in Notes
- 11:10 (US) Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Challenges Facing Central Banks
- 12:00 (CH) SNB's Jordan speaks at Zurich Economic Society
- 12:00 (EU) ECB's Reinesch (Luxembourg) speaks at conference in Luxembourg
- 13:00 (IL) Israeli PM Netanyahu Speaks to Journalists to Mark New Year
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 4.50%

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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