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Friday January 17, 2014 - 11:13:54 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Dec Retail sales blows out estimates

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Dec Retail sales blows out estimates
Fri, 17 Jan 2014 5:19 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan Cabinet Office (Govt) raises its economic assessment; says domestic economy "recovering" for 1st time since 2008
- Japan Dec Consumer Confidence remained shaky ahead of the planned April sales tax hike (41.3 v 43.0e)
- China formally reopens its IPO market after 14 month ban
- PBoC says cash demand rises substantially before holidays (**Note: Lunar New Year begins at end of Jan)
- Chile Central Bank leaves key rate unchanged, as expected
- UK Dec retail sales handily beats market expectations (M/M: 2.8% v 0.3%e)
- Spain Bad Loan Ratio hits fresh record high in Nov at 13.1%


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply Narrow w/e Jan 13th (RUB): 8.37T v 8.35T prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Jan 11th (y/y): 9.5% v 23.6% prior
- (FR) France Nov YTD Budget Balance: -87.0B v -86.0B prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 131.6K v 122.2K prior
- (EU) ECB 371.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 243M prior; 32.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 31.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Dec Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.9 v -1.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov Current Account (CZK): -7.3B v +8.0Be
- (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) Nov Bad Loan Ratio: 13.1% (record high) v 13.0% prior
- (UK) Dec Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 2.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 3.2%e
- (UK) Dec Retail Sales Incl Auto M/M: 2.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 2.5%e

- (BR) Brazil Jan Final IGP-M Inflation: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Construction Output M/M: -0.6 v -1.1% prior; Y/y: -1.7 v -2.3% prior

Fixed Income
None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [FTSE 100 flat at 6,815
, DAX +0.3% at 9,749, CAC-40 +0.3% at 4,331, IBEX-35 -0.1% at 10,449, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 19,909, SMI +0.2% 8,471, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,839]

- Market Focal Points: Mixed equity trading, DAX hits another record high, FTSE 100 and IBEX-35 underperform, UK retailers rise amid better than expected Dec retail sales, Shell warns on Q4 outlook, Weaker than expected US earnings (Intel, American Express), Upcoming US earnings (GE, Morgan Stanley, Schlumberger), China Q4 GDP data next week (Jan 20th)

By Sector
- Energy
[Shell RDSA.UK -3% (profit warning), BP BP.UK -1%]
- Financials [Bolsas Y Mercados BME.ES -2.5% (share placement)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Loewe LOE.DE +20% (takeover offer), Admiral Group ADM.UK +4% (speculation related to rising motor insurance premiums), Pandora PNDORA.DK +3% (raised FY sales forecast), Brunello Cucinelli BC.IT +2.5% (2013 sales +15% y/y); Ocado OCDO.UK -4% (broker commentary), Essilor EI.FR -2.5% (FY sales below target), Amadeus AMS.ES -2% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE +3% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Stoxx 50 Sectors [Utilities +1%, Basic Materials +0.8%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Energy +0.3%, Industrials +0.1%, Telecom flat; Technology -0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4% Financials -0.1%]

Speakers:
- ECB's Knot
(Netherlands) stated that one should not be too pessimistic on outlook but current conditions were less than ideal. He reiterated the central bank view that there were limits to what monetary policy could achieve and that the ECB did all it could during the financial crisis
- S&P revised Portugal sovereign outlook to negative from watch negative; affirms BB rating
- Fitch affirmed Netherlands AAA rating; outlook negative
- Report that Portugal might report 2013 deficit to GDP ratio below its 5.5% target and perhaps below the 5% level
- Poland Central Bank's Hausner commented that its period of stable interest rates might end if growth was significantly above 2.6%. He saw good change that growth could return to pace before the economic crisis. Pledge to maintain Base Rate until mid-2014 should encourage companies to increase their investment spending. Fed tapering was the only major risk at this time; could lead to an outflow of capital from Poland
- China banking regulator CBRC asks banks to curb reliance on short-term funding
- China PBoC official Weibo stated that Jan lending was rising too fast and would ask banks to reduce the pace to lending. PBoC would adjust bank liquidity at the proper time
- PBoC stated that it would maintain stable money supply. Cash demand tended to rise substantially before holidays (**Note: Lunar New Year begins at end of Jan). To pursue prudent monetary policy

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The GBP soared over 100 pips to over 1.6440 following the better-than-expected UK retail sales data for Dec. Front-month Gilt futures slumped over 35 ticks to approach 108.60
- The AUD/USD pair remained heavy in tone and remained just above 3-year lows. The pair was below the 0.88 level throughout the session
- Commerzbank sees ECB cutting refi rate to 0.1%, deposit rate to -0.1% in March due to falling inflation

Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) New study suggest largest EU banks may need 767B in capital to bring capital levels to 7% of total assets - financial press; udy was conducted by NYU professor Viral Acharya (advisor to European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)) and Berlin's European School of Managment's Sascha Steffen
- (EU) ECB's Coeure: Standard tools may be enough to meet eurozone liquidity needs; If medium-term inflation expectations move further away from the 2% target, there would have to be a monetary policy reaction.
-(EU) ECB's Noyer: Low interest rate environment and lasting risks will make for a difficult environment for banks and insurance firms in 2014
-(EU) ECB's Hansson (Estonia): Deflation is not a risk in the EMU but inflation has slowed more than the ECB forecasted - financial press
-(EU) Bafin's Koenig: Should not be any big negative surprises out of asset quality review (AQR) stress tests of German banks; believe regulators do need to adjust how sovereign debt is treated under the review
- (UK) Chancellor Osborne: Must increase the minimum wage at a rate that is above rate of inflation due to the improving UK economy
- (UK) Head of Labour party Miliband: wants to create two new large UK lenders and to force sale of a 'significant' number of branches of current large banks
- (IT) new accounting standard adopted by EU from September might reduce Italy's debt-to-GDP
-(US) Fed's Kocherlakota (dovish, FOMC voter in 2014): Reiterates Fed needs to do more to stimulate the economy, was being complacent by planning for years of below-target inflation

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia Nov Trade Balance: $13.6Be v $13.2B prior; Exports: $44.3Be v $44.0prior; Imports: $30.1Be v $30.8B prior
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Economic Activity M/M: 0.1%e v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.7% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB weekly 3-year LTRO repayment announcement vs. 3.5Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:30 (IN) Weekly India Forex Reserves
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:15 (UK) BOE's Broadbent speaks at London School of Economics
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (TCMB) Survey of Expectations
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces specific bonds to be issued on Thursday, Jan 16th
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Monthly Economic Indicators Report
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Nov CNI Capacity Utilization: 82.1%e v 82.1% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Current Account Balance: -1.1Be v -0.5B prior; Trade Balance: -100Me v +53M prior; Exports: 13.7Be v 14.6B prior; Imports: 13.8Be v 14.6 prior
- 08:10 (EU) EU's Almunia
- 08:30 (US) Dec Housing Starts: 990Ke v 1.091M prior; Building Permits: 1.015Me v 1.017M prior (revised from 1.007M)
- 09:00 EU's Barroso with Spain PM Rajoy in Madrid
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.3%e v 4.5% prior
- 09:15 (US) Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.3%e v 1.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 79.1%e v 79.0% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior
- 09:55 (US) Jan Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 83.5e v 82.5 prior

- 10:00 (US) Nov JOLTs Job Openings: 3.93Me v 3.925M prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-3.00B in notes
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks on the Economic Outlook in Richmond
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.2% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.0%e v 6.6% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior

 

 

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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