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U.S. Martin Luther King Holiday Monday. U.S. economy mixed?
|U.S. Martin Luther King Holiday Monday. U.S. economy mixed?|
20 January 2014 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: CN- GDP No Major Data. US- Holiday.
| EURUSD 1.3597
|| U.S. 2.83% +2bp
|| North America: Mixed|
| EURJPY 142.02
|| Bund 1.76% -2bp
|| DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6445
|| GILT 2.84% +3bp
|| FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 104.42
|| JGB 0.68% +1bp
|| Far East Close:Down|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Holiday, CN- GDP
- U.S. data recently has been sending mixed signals. Key housing and the University of Michigan survey data seem to be indicating that the real-time economy might be flattening out while other recently-released data have been suggesting the economy continues to recover.
- Fed policy is very much data-dependent. That will not change when Yellen takes the helm from Bernanke in just under two weeks. Friday was the major data day of the past week. Housing Starts and Permits for December provide an advance look at the critical (for job creation) housing industry and they are now showing little improvement from the middle of 2013.
- After the shockingly weak December U.S. jobs report a week ago we expect no changes in Fed policy any time soon. The Fed will continue to taper its asset purchase program for fear of its potential adverse long-term consequences but will stick to its ultra-easy short-term monetary policy indefinitely.
- Tuesday sees the release of the German ZEW Sentiment survey, which is often used as a predictor of the major IFO survey due later in the month. U.K. Key Jobs data are slated for Wednesday. The week will also see CPI figures for New Zealand, Australia and Canada.
- Flash PMI's for a slew of counties will be out on Thursday. Central Bank decisions are also due from Japan and the Bank of Canada.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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