Monday January 20, 2014 - 05:06:39 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 20-Jan-2014 -0502 GMT
Dow (16458.56, +0.25%) bounced back from 16375 exactly as expected and now would start its next rally breaking above 16530. The trend remains up but we have been keeping an eye on the broader band of 16800-17600 too as a lot of projections converge there. Initial sign of weakness will come only below 16050-100.
Dax (9742.96, +0.26%) broke above the 3 week old range of 9350-9650 and quickly reached our 9750-9800 levels to consolidate there. Next target would be 9950 above 9750-9800. Support is at 9350 and 9200 levels.
Nikkei (15646.22, -0.56%) is correcting from our resistance area of 16000-150. It must break above this zone to confirm strength and extend the rally. The targets of 15150-200 open below the support of 15400.
Shanghai (1998.11, -0.34%) has been resisted at 2030 yet again, which remains a sign of danger for the bulls. Now the drop can extend below 1965-70 as long as it stays below 2015-2030. Only above 2030, bulls can take it to 2055-60.
Nifty (6261.65, -0.91%) finally gave the dip that was hoped for. Though the short term trend turns down and with a clear 5 wave visible in the fall, there is a definite possibility of at least another fall after a brief bounce but the bullish scenario canít be discarded yet as long as Nifty stays above 6220-35. Actually if the bulls manage to break 6345-60 this time after this correction, the strength of any rally towards 6500-6600 will be much stronger. We may discard this bullish scenario below 6220. The most dangerous signal comes from CNX IT, the main driver of the last rally, as it formed a Bearish Inverted Hammer pattern on the weekly charts. But this pattern requires a confirmation next week to reverse the uptrend in the short to medium term.
Gold (1256.021) is trading high as the support at 1235.18 holds well. If this rise above 1250 sustains we may see a rise towards 1280 in the near term.
Silver (20.329) is in a consolidative mood and has not been able to rise above the crucial resistance at 20.50. A rise above 20.5-20.65 is needed to ensure a rise
towards 21.5. While below 20.5 we could see some ranged movements above 19.5-19 on the downside.
Copper (3.3530) is stable for now and may target resistance near 3.40. A break above 3.40 may take the prices higher towards 3.50.
Brent (106.34) is trading high and may test resistance near 106.75. We may expect consolidation in the 104.86-107 region for some more time. There are also chances that it may fall towards immediate support coming near 104.8-105 from where it may rise to 107..
Nymex WTI (93.795) fell from the 13-day MA resistance at 95.07. While below 95 we could see a consolidation in the 93-95 region. Support coming up near 93.35 which if holds may take it back to 96.
Dollar Index (81.19) is facing the major resupply zone of 81.50 now after bouncing from the support zone of 80.30-50 and breaking above the immediate resistance at 81.05-20. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above 80.30-50. From a broader perspective, the Dollar index keeps trading in a contracting range within 79-81.50 for nearly 3 months now and only a break of that range would give any real direction.
Euro (1.3534) has hit a major trendline at 1.3508 and the RSI shows the same. If 5 waves are finished at that low, a bounce may be expected towards 1.36-1.37, but selling pressure may come at the higher levels. Below 1.35, the drop may extend to 1.333-1.34. The trend remains firmly down.
Dollar-Yen (103.95) corrected a bit from 105. Longer term uptrend back in force? In that case, the strength should be back from 103.65-104 and then the rally may target 107 now above 105.40-60.
The Euro-Yen Cross (140.73) has corrected exactly from the major supply zone at 143-143.30 to reach our target of 140.50 in line with our expectation. Bulls must break above 141.50-75 to bring back some kind of strength. Otherwise, the drop may extend below 140 towards 138.50. Immediate support is at 140.15-30.
The Pound (1.6417) is in the 3rd week of sideways trade between 1.66 and 1.63. Good Support at 1.63 now. Can rise again towards 1.6600 within overall uptrend from 1.4800 (Jul-13). Where it will go after that will have to be seen.
The Aussie (0.8796) made a new 3 year low in a single day of the possibility being discussed in this space. It had failed to stay above 0.90 and broke down below 0.8950-60 to signal the termination of the bounce. Now any rally towards 0.8950-90 is expected to be sold into. Now the last hope for the bulls would be the major long term support area of 0.87-0.8720.
Dollar Rupee (61.54) may open a bit higher today near 61.60-65. At the low of 61.32, clear 5 waves getting finished implies that the current bounce is retracing the entire fall from the high of 62.45. We also find the last fall from 62.55 to 61.32 to be exactly 39% of the previous fall as was the case with the earlier two drops. Now if it manages to break and sustain above 61.70-75, a rise to 61.95-62.10 may be expected.
INTEREST RATESDATA TODAY
The US 10Yr (2.82%) declined again as economic reports showed an uneven recovery in the economy. The Housing Starts declined and the Industrial Production was slow. The 5Yr (1.63%) and the 30Yr (3.75%) remained stable.
The German 10Yr (1.75%) fell further. The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.20%) has come down and is targeting the support zone of -28%-0.30%. The UK 10Yr (2.83%) also fell ahead of the release of the BOE Minutes.
The Japan 10Yr (0.66%) remained unchanged before the BOJ Meeting to be held on Tuesday. Any monetary decision regarding the change in the key interest rates will have a huge impact in the bond market. It needs to be watched.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yield (8.63%) rose slightly. And is expected to remain in the range of 8.60%-8.75%
No major data release today.
US Housing Starts (Mln)
...Expected 990 K ...Previous 1107 K ...Actual 999 K
US Industrial Production
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 1.10 % ...Actual 0.30%
US Capacity Utilization
...Expected 79.20 % ...Previous 79.10% ...Actual 79.20%
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